XX10 | End

[Chemist1422]

cob, there's a much higher chance there's 8 rolls than 9 since there's no evidence of a mafia vig

[SparkingJay]

Cob: Vig (Conf)
Debil: LO
Juck: LO
Kosmo: BG
Chemist: Esc
Murat: Esc (Conf, dead)
Me: BG (Conf)
Royee: BG

Which comes out as SSSBBBBBBLLLK (13 Ps)

maximum amount of Ps which can be removed from 1 liar is 3 (BBB) giving 10 Ps which is impossible, so there must be at least 2 liars in the PR claimants

1 vig claim > K(1)
2 LO claims > Lll(3)
3 BG claims > Bbbbbb(6)
2 escort claims > Sss(3)

In total, that's 13 letters but there were only 9 rolls this game
therefore either one of the LO claims, escort claims, or BG claims are fake
im thinking one of the BG claims are fake

if one of the BG claims are fake, we'd still have 10 letters, so one of the power roles would still be lying
if 2 of the BG claism are fake, we'd have 8 letters which isn't enough so we'd have another PR that hasnt claimed

but then that means there's another PR that isnt claiming? tf who hasnt claimed
everyone just hardclaim please

my genius is extremely high

ACTUALLY NO I CHANGED MY MIND
we need to figure out a way to remove 4 letters

If one of the LO claims are fake, then that removes 2
If one of the Escort claims are fake, then that removes another 2
2+2=4
WE REMOVED 4

ONE OF THE LO CLAIM IS FAKE
THE ESCORT CLAIM IS FAKE

IM A GENIUS
IM A GENIUS

Town doesn't have 9 rolls.

9 rolls are distributed between both Town/Mafia.
Mafia/Town have a 50/50 chance at getting a roll.

[cob709]

Cob: Vig (Conf)
Debil: LO
Juck: LO
Kosmo: BG
Chemist: Esc
Murat: Esc (Conf, dead)
Me: BG (Conf)
Royee: BG

Which comes out as SSSBBBBBBLLLK (13 Ps)

maximum amount of Ps which can be removed from 1 liar is 3 (BBB) giving 10 Ps which is impossible, so there must be at least 2 liars in the PR claimants

1 vig claim > K(1)
2 LO claims > Lll(3)
3 BG claims > Bbbbbb(6)
2 escort claims > Sss(3)

In total, that's 13 letters but there were only 9 rolls this game
therefore either one of the LO claims, escort claims, or BG claims are fake
im thinking one of the BG claims are fake

if one of the BG claims are fake, we'd still have 10 letters, so one of the power roles would still be lying
if 2 of the BG claism are fake, we'd have 8 letters which isn't enough so we'd have another PR that hasnt claimed

but then that means there's another PR that isnt claiming? tf who hasnt claimed
everyone just hardclaim please

my genius is extremely high

8 rolls work here, since the main assumption is that there is a Mafia Firebrand.

ok so that means 2 of the BGs ARE fake

[cob709]

i can do an analysis of the possibilities at some point

NO LET ME DO IT

[cob709]

Cob: Vig (Conf)
Debil: LO
Juck: LO
Kosmo: BG
Chemist: Esc
Murat: Esc (Conf, dead)
Me: BG (Conf)
Royee: BG

Which comes out as SSSBBBBBBLLLK (13 Ps)

maximum amount of Ps which can be removed from 1 liar is 3 (BBB) giving 10 Ps which is impossible, so there must be at least 2 liars in the PR claimants

1 vig claim > K(1)
2 LO claims > Lll(3)
3 BG claims > Bbbbbb(6)
2 escort claims > Sss(3)

Possible Ts: TTT, TT, T, 0

0 Ts:

Then there has to be 9 town rolls

KLBbbbbbS
1 of the LO claims are fake
1 of the escort claims are fake

1 Ts:

Then there has to be 8 town rolls

KLllBSssT
2 of the BG claims are fake

2 Ts:

Then there has to be 7 town rolls

KLllSssTt
All 3 BG claims are fake
KLBbbbSTt
1 of the LO claims are fake
1 of the escort claims are fake
1 of the BG claims are fake

3 Ts:

Then there has to be 6 town rolls

KLBbbbTtt
1 of the LO claims are fake
1 of the BG claims are fake
1 of the escort claims are fake

i can do an analysis of the possibilities at some point

NO LET ME DO IT

no offence but please stop arguing mechanics

laughs in genius

[Royee]

Cob: Vig (Conf)
Debil: LO
Juck: LO
Kosmo: BG
Chemist: Esc
Murat: Esc (Conf, dead)
Me: BG (Conf)
Royee: BG

Which comes out as SSSBBBBBBLLLK (13 Ps)

maximum amount of Ps which can be removed from 1 liar is 3 (BBB) giving 10 Ps which is impossible, so there must be at least 2 liars in the PR claimants

1 vig claim > K(1)
2 LO claims > Lll(3)
3 BG claims > Bbbbbb(6)
2 escort claims > Sss(3)

In total, that's 13 letters but there were only 9 rolls this game
therefore either one of the LO claims, escort claims, or BG claims are fake
im thinking one of the BG claims are fake

if one of the BG claims are fake, we'd still have 10 letters, so one of the power roles would still be lying
if 2 of the BG claism are fake, we'd have 8 letters which isn't enough so we'd have another PR that hasnt claimed

but then that means there's another PR that isnt claiming? tf who hasnt claimed
everyone just hardclaim please

my genius is extremely high

8 rolls work here, since the main assumption is that there is a Mafia Firebrand.

ok so that means 2 of the BGs ARE fake

it doesnt
think again

[Royee]

caught up, these pr claims are a mess tho me/Flake had the same nightkill predictions so there's that.

My main assumption is we have 8 out of 9 rolls, meaning mafia firebrand is in play.

My main town PR combination looks like: SSSBKLLL
Meaning Cenvil is scum and 2 of Flake/Kosmo/Royee are scum.
Royee claiming BG could easily just have been to late antispew Kosmo as town by engaging a TD on them before Royee gets lynched
Cenvil softing TK D1 doesn't matter if they primarily douse PoE townies therefore town will see him as villa for his douse targets.

just an advice
you should play mountainous on mu
doing iioa is useless. with how the claims are set and by flake, chemist/kosmo/cenvil always flip mafia from my pov. the most i can do now is dive their iso and note out interactions.

Reasons exist dw

you mean logical failure

It's sound logic tho you need to disagree with it in your POV so I don't blame this comment.

you can't even spot your logical failure.
if cenvil is likely to be mafia fb wont it be better to get rid of mafia kp?

Which is why Chemist exists, my read on you was stronger than on Cenvil anyways.
Although due to a change of heart, arguing scum!Cenvil is pointless to me.

***it became useless overall because cenvil has never claimed fb***

[Royee]

we would expect a sword death if cenvil thought they were fb, if cenvil said that d1. otherwise cenvil is still a candidate for citizen poe

[Varanus]

Current Vote Count

Player	Votes	Voters
	#	Votes Until Majority

Not voting:
cob709, dolphina, Hellosither, jucktropy, EvilDeanius0, Swordsworth,

End of Day 3:

Dolphina is deceased

this is deeply surreal to read, and the aforementioned makes it so much more

I forgot to update my graveyard, didn't I?

please hold

[Varanus]

Current Vote Count

Player	Votes	Voters
	#	Votes Until Majority

Not voting:
cob709, Hellosither, jucktropy, EvilDeanius0, Swordsworth,

End of Day 3:

[watchme1]

Still think lynching within the bg claims is the best way to go to guarantee a scum lynch tbh

[Royee]

Still think lynching within the bg claims is the best way to go to guarantee a scum lynch tbh

this is should be the first priority, mostly because of the 0.01% chance.

[Royee]

Anyway with kosmo not answering me i am pretty sure she flips scum here

What question?

Iso me

This?

I refuse to believe that scums are so stupid, to all claim PRs. Cenvil is just too smart for that.

why
for all
and from where the first claim has come from

No idea what are you asking for.

how why is not evident?
why do you refuse to believe that scums are stupid and how you reached that conclusion? Why is Cenvil just too smart for that despite their claim retrieval?

[Chemist1422]

Still think lynching within the bg claims is the best way to go to guarantee a scum lynch tbh

strongly agree

not biased btw

[Royee]

Still think lynching within the bg claims is the best way to go to guarantee a scum lynch tbh

strongly agree

not biased btw

why biased?

[Chemist1422]

Still think lynching within the bg claims is the best way to go to guarantee a scum lynch tbh

strongly agree

not biased btw

why biased?

because I roleblocked you last night and there was no scum kill???

[Royee]

Still think lynching within the bg claims is the best way to go to guarantee a scum lynch tbh

i mean yes the lynch should always be royee because we gain a significant amount irrespective of their alignment

if they flip villa it is highly likely that kosmo is wolf and chemist is also very likely to be wolf

for the prior, if you assume i am not lying (should be fairly obvious based on nature of my claim), debil is not lying (highly likely) and cob is vig (essentially proven), we would have BBBKLS. for kosmo to be telling the truth we'd have BBBBBBKLS which is very very unlikely due to lack of evidence of mafia vig

latter holds because a crosskill from mafia on dolphina n2 is highly unlikely (dolphina was a citizen claim, there were obviously far better kills with given information), so there are very few worlds where royee would be villa and chemist would also not be lying about their roleblock on royee

if they flip wolf, then they flip wolf which is obviously positive

whatever
do you want to bother yourself with reading my watchme wall?

[Royee]

Still think lynching within the bg claims is the best way to go to guarantee a scum lynch tbh

strongly agree

not biased btw

why biased?

because I roleblocked you last night and there was no scum kill???

oh yea i have forgotten that part
mafia probably forgot to attack or chose to not in the universe where you are an escort.

[kosmo16]

Anyway with kosmo not answering me i am pretty sure she flips scum here

What question?

Iso me

This?

I refuse to believe that scums are so stupid, to all claim PRs. Cenvil is just too smart for that.

why
for all
and from where the first claim has come from

No idea what are you asking for.

how why is not evident?
why do you refuse to believe that scums are stupid and how you reached that conclusion? Why is Cenvil just too smart for that despite their claim retrieval?

Cenvil was almost certainly scum (I was sure about) with fb claim and due to claim space 3 claims had to be scums. Anyone who knows how to do binomial probability calculation is already smart, beside that he knows that combinations are needed to calculate probability of each number of prs (Flake failed to do that). Claim retrival looks silly, Im not sure what to think about that.

You are asking about post written before claim retrieval. I will just assume it is a desperate attempt of manipulation and ignore that part.

[Royee]

Still think lynching within the bg claims is the best way to go to guarantee a scum lynch tbh

i mean yes the lynch should always be royee because we gain a significant amount irrespective of their alignment

if they flip villa it is highly likely that kosmo is wolf and chemist is also very likely to be wolf

for the prior, if you assume i am not lying (should be fairly obvious based on nature of my claim), debil is not lying (highly likely) and cob is vig (essentially proven), we would have BBBKLS. for kosmo to be telling the truth we'd have BBBBBBKLS which is very very unlikely due to lack of evidence of mafia vig

latter holds because a crosskill from mafia on dolphina n2 is highly unlikely (dolphina was a citizen claim, there were obviously far better kills with given information), so there are very few worlds where royee would be villa and chemist would also not be lying about their roleblock on royee

if they flip wolf, then they flip wolf which is obviously positive

whatever
do you want to bother yourself with reading my watchme wall?

@flake force yourself to answer me till morning please

[kosmo16]

Anyone who knows how to do binomial probability calculation is already smart, beside that he knows that combinations are needed to calculate probability of each number of prs (Flake failed to do that).

i mean i could have done that it just requires far too much effort for what you gain from it

When you posted it with a mean, probably this showed up on your screen:

[Royee]

Anyway with kosmo not answering me i am pretty sure she flips scum here

What question?

Iso me

This?

I refuse to believe that scums are so stupid, to all claim PRs. Cenvil is just too smart for that.

why
for all
and from where the first claim has come from

No idea what are you asking for.

how why is not evident?
why do you refuse to believe that scums are stupid and how you reached that conclusion? Why is Cenvil just too smart for that despite their claim retrieval?

Cenvil was almost certainly scum (I was sure about) with fb claim and due to claim space 3 claims had to be scums. Anyone who knows how to do binomial probability calculation is already smart, beside that he knows that combinations are needed to calculate probability of each number of prs (Flake failed to do that). Claim retrival looks silly, Im not sure what to think about that.

You are asking about post written before claim retrieval. I will just assume it is a desperate attempt of manipulation and ignore that part.

Spoiler: ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
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??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
I don't think I have pasted that many question marks before just for your last sentence. It's the second time you are doing it. How the hell am I manipulating you desperately through a poor question that holds literally no value now? Also for the possibility thing you just put your n,k and p by the formula and get an answer. I fail to understand how it makes me or anyone else smart.

[Royee]

Still think lynching within the bg claims is the best way to go to guarantee a scum lynch tbh

i mean yes the lynch should always be royee because we gain a significant amount irrespective of their alignment

if they flip villa it is highly likely that kosmo is wolf and chemist is also very likely to be wolf

for the prior, if you assume i am not lying (should be fairly obvious based on nature of my claim), debil is not lying (highly likely) and cob is vig (essentially proven), we would have BBBKLS. for kosmo to be telling the truth we'd have BBBBBBKLS which is very very unlikely due to lack of evidence of mafia vig

latter holds because a crosskill from mafia on dolphina n2 is highly unlikely (dolphina was a citizen claim, there were obviously far better kills with given information), so there are very few worlds where royee would be villa and chemist would also not be lying about their roleblock on royee

if they flip wolf, then they flip wolf which is obviously positive

whatever
do you want to bother yourself with reading my watchme wall?

ah yes the great argument of "whatever" followed by change of subject

but ok i'll read it

look at the context. the context says that i have given up my tries about staying alive due to the rb thing.
the question is do you want me to help you figure out which player in citizen pool is scum or i self vote because in no world i survive this day.
pretty much sad people less use in this queue scum reading.

[kosmo16]

Anyway with kosmo not answering me i am pretty sure she flips scum here

What question?

Iso me

This?

I refuse to believe that scums are so stupid, to all claim PRs. Cenvil is just too smart for that.

why
for all
and from where the first claim has come from

No idea what are you asking for.

how why is not evident?
why do you refuse to believe that scums are stupid and how you reached that conclusion? Why is Cenvil just too smart for that despite their claim retrieval?

Cenvil was almost certainly scum (I was sure about) with fb claim and due to claim space 3 claims had to be scums. Anyone who knows how to do binomial probability calculation is already smart, beside that he knows that combinations are needed to calculate probability of each number of prs (Flake failed to do that). Claim retrival looks silly, Im not sure what to think about that.

You are asking about post written before claim retrieval. I will just assume it is a desperate attempt of manipulation and ignore that part.

Spoiler: ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
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I don't think I have pasted that many question marks before just for your last sentence. It's the second time you are doing it. How the hell am I manipulating you desperately through a poor question that holds literally no value now? Also for the possibility thing you just put your n,k and p by the formula and get an answer. I fail to understand how it makes me or anyone else smart.

Ehh, why are you so angry? So you think Cenvil is stupid? I have a different impression based on the games I played with him. That's my subjective opinion, you can disagree, but imo the guy is smart.
You are refering to the post BEFORE claim retrival so... What's your point?

[kosmo16]

yeah actually i think the initial calculation i did for avg number of prs was wrong considering what cenvil said

i kinda wanna find the true value for fun but it might take a while without messing up

You could use avg. if the number of prs as a function of number of rolls was linear.