SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia-Game Over-Christmas Saved?

[Chemist1422]

yo

probably won't be around for the rest of the night so this is basically a prodge

out of the uzay/michael/poly pool I'd take poly as town over the other 2

[LOLingHyena]

I can't see any logic in poly's disruptive behavior beside causing chaos, which is definitely not town-motivated. I think he townread Jackson and one of Jackson's scumread was his townpeak.
Uzay, Michael, Hyena, dota, Acidic, Sparking are likely Town.
/vote poly

kosmo I legitamtely cannot tell if you are joking or not. I really hope someone has already responded to this to find out.

if not guess i'll do it myself

alright looks like this was ignored lmao

1. My "chaos" is me scumreading all the scum and pushing them, i have no idea where you get "chaos" from.
2. I was literally pushing for a micheal lynch instead of a jackson lynch, hwo the fuck can you draw the conclusion that jackson is my townpeek from that.

How is my behaviour disruptive?
Have you seen uzay lol

Agreed. I would say that Uzay has been waaaay more disruptive than Poly. Uzay has actively tried to dismiss cases and pushes on other people by pretty much calling everything NAI. Yes, this is an exaggeration, but seriously, what he's been doing has been very unhelpful as far as making progress on people.

[LOLingHyena]

I didnt mess with Debil or HTG wagon , Pretty sure

---------------------
I'm talking about this, for Debil:

@Hyena Dota is one of my TRs and I don't think they are doing that .
I dont think anyone' s stance on Debil is indicative at all , given Debil was not a lynch target until they are shot .
HTG , is different . They are lynched . Interactions with HTG can be very well indicative .
I think Sparking is thinking Poly is town just based on that .
I dont have the concern I will be lynched before poly , given that I will venge poly in return . My main concern is nobody would solve that and lynch me or him until it is too late .

Do you know why Debil wasn't a lynch target? Because no one outside of me and Poly wanted him lynched. THAT'S why he wasn't a lynch target. Why didn't you want to lynch him? Why didn't you even comment on Debil much in spite of him having an active scumread on you? Did you even care about anything that Debil posted?

Bruh debil is scum they've slipped like 3 times or something.

Show them or I will assume that never happened

---------------------
And this, for HTG:

/vote htg

EVERYONE THIS IS A GOOD WAGON

htg:
- did NOTHING to solve the watchme/jackson problem day 1 (like, actually 0 posts)
- is only TUNNELING players (which is a legit scum strategy)
- does NOT develop on her ideas and pretty much forgets the reads shes done in the past (meaning she did them not for the sake of, you know, using them)
- finds a way to jump on EVERY top wagon despite not scumreading the person on the wagon initially (watchme 0ver uzay)

TBH I will prefer them answering me First , with 3 Quotes of cases on me ( he claimed there are 60 cases on me , and they shouldn't write 61st one ) .

My vote is staying on poly. I may be able to be here at EOD , but no guarantee .
TBH I would want to hear some More defense from HTG , but it seems they're AFK So .

TBH HTG should have been lockscum The moment they came , but dodged my question Because I was not here .

My vote is staying on poly. I may be able to be here at EOD , but no guarantee .
TBH I would want to hear some More defense from HTG , but it seems they're AFK So .

So, we almost lynched Jackson at EoD yesterday. The main reason we were unsuccessful was because we didn't have the numbers, even with Google's corpse on the wagon, when we tried to CFD there. You have been scumreading Jackson pretty much the entire game, and if your vote had been on Jackson rather than Poly, the lynch on Jackson might've gone through instead of on HTG. What do you think of the wagons on Jackson and Michael at EoD yesterday? Do you think we were wagoning scum (Jackson and Michael) before we moved back to HTG?

TBH I was suprised Jackson got most votes when I am away .
Actually , as I remember All wagons happened Because HTG self-pres , and 2-3 other people jumping on These . I Dont Actually have A clear opinion on Michael . Jackson , I would support but If I was here , I would vote HTG over Jackson Because HTG never answered my question, and their EOD . I would probably prefer Poly over Jackson , too , Because Jackson's Day 3 wasnt bad ( I think somebody else mentioned that , too ) .
I Dont think We can gain anything from analyzing wagons in terms of wagon's alignment , my opinion on that two people didnt change much, too .

[polypies73]

wow hyena

stop, he's already dead

[LOLingHyena]

Okay, I'm not sure if I've lost my sanity yet or not, but...

I've been doing some more thinking. I think I'm coming to the conclusion that resolving Uzay/Poly isn't such a bad idea after all.

I'll explain my reasoning in just a moment.

[LOLingHyena]

Alright, so...

The worst case scenario from lynching in Uzay/Poly is where they both are somehow town.

Initially, I tried to play out this scenario in my head. In this scenario, we would have:
-- 10 alive players
-- around 6-ish players that are TOWN.
-- around 4-ish players that are SCUM.

Immediately, I would remove [Me, Dota, Sparking] from contention,
which would leave the following 7 players: [Chemist, ET, Wabbit, Multi, Acidic, Kosmo, Michael]

(Note: As far as I know, I don't think we'd stand to gain much info if Uzay and Poly both flip town, but please correct me if I'm wrong)

At this point, I started thinking how Michael's alignment would affect things in this group of seven.

If Michael is scum,
-- I would say Chemist is likely to be town, as well as Acidic
-- which would mean that the remaining 3-ish scum would reside in [ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo]

If Michael is town,
-- My reads on Chemist and Acidic flip to scum
-- which would mean there would be 2-ish scum in [ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo]

Look at the bottom two cases though. It seems like regardless of Michael's alignment, there would be at least 2-ish scum in that group of [ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo] if Uzay and Poly are both town.

But then, that got me thinking again.

Michael, Uzay, and Poly can't be all town, could they? Like, I don't think there is any logic that states that they couldn't be, but... it just doesn't feel that way, right?

Thus, if I'm right about that above statement (Michael, Uzay, and Poly not being all town), then MAYBE...
just maybe...
lynching one of Uzay or Poly isn't really that bad of an idea at all?

What do you all think?

[Eragon1329]

Lynch votes

Current Vote Count

Player	Votes	Voters
	#	Votes Until Majority

Paranoia Votes

Current Vote Count

Player	Votes	Voters
	#	Votes Until Majority

Insert Time Here Time Remains

[polypies73]

wait now you want to lynch uzay.
this is epic.

i basically do not care which one of micheal/uzay/multi dies as long as vengekills are done properly.

[LOLingHyena]

wait now you want to lynch uzay.
this is epic.

i basically do not care which one of micheal/uzay/multi dies as long as vengekills are done properly.

I want to lynch between Uzay and you. If whoever we lynch between you two flips town, I want the other venge-shot.

That means if we do, in fact, lynch Uzay and he flips town, I want him to shoot you.

[LOLingHyena]

wait now you want to lynch uzay.
this is epic.

i basically do not care which one of micheal/uzay/multi dies as long as vengekills are done properly.

I want to lynch between Uzay and you. If whoever we lynch between you two flips town, I want the other venge-shot.

That means if we do, in fact, lynch Uzay and he flips town, I want him to shoot you.

The alternative is us lynching you and you shooting Uzay if you flip town.

[LOLingHyena]

So yeah, basically, you two now have my full permission to go full throttle at each other with all you've got.

Poly vs Uzay Thunderdome. Loser gets lynched.

[MichaelgRook]

I'm for this tbh

acidic is my number one but both poly and uzay are in my poe too which narrows it no matter who's lynched

[polypies73]

I'm for this tbh

acidic is my number one but both poly and uzay are in my poe too which narrows it no matter who's lynched

you still haven't explained why either of us are in your poe properly lel

[polypies73]

wait now you want to lynch uzay.
this is epic.

i basically do not care which one of micheal/uzay/multi dies as long as vengekills are done properly.

I want to lynch between Uzay and you. If whoever we lynch between you two flips town, I want the other venge-shot.

That means if we do, in fact, lynch Uzay and he flips town, I want him to shoot you.

The alternative is us lynching you and you shooting Uzay if you flip town.

hmmmmmmmmm I think i slightly prefer the other option.

[LOLingHyena]

wait now you want to lynch uzay.
this is epic.

i basically do not care which one of micheal/uzay/multi dies as long as vengekills are done properly.

I want to lynch between Uzay and you. If whoever we lynch between you two flips town, I want the other venge-shot.

That means if we do, in fact, lynch Uzay and he flips town, I want him to shoot you.

The alternative is us lynching you and you shooting Uzay if you flip town.

hmmmmmmmmm I think i slightly prefer the other option.

I figured you would. But yeah, I'm all for it now.

[polypies73]

/vote uzay

he's scum
case closed
i win

[therealet1]

ive clarified i scumread uzay so im fine with that as well
/vote uzay

my wim hit a lowpoint again

[AcidicBreeze]

im fine with uzay tbh but i would still prefer Michael to be gone.

[polypies73]

im fine with uzay tbh but i would still prefer Michael to be gone.

there's no way we don't resolve you/micheal/multi

[UzayAltay]

I feel like my frustration is becoming a detriment to my ability to read people right now, so I'm going to try to do something else.

I did some thinking, and [Uzay, Michael, Poly] -- is it unreasonable to think that there is AT LEAST one town in this group? If Uzay is scum, I think Poly might be his townpeek, which would make Poly the "at least one town" in this scenario with Michael still being a question mark. If Poly is scum, does that increase the likelihood of Uzay and Michael being town? Uzay was wrong on Jackson though, so I dunno if this holds up strongly for him, but in Michael's case, I think it kinda applies? So, Michael would be the "at least one town" in this scenario. Finally, if Michael is scum... I don't know if this affects how I'm reading Uzay and Poly? But it would make me feel confident in my own reads again, which in turn would lead me to believe Poly, again, would be the "at least one town" in this scenario.

If we can confirm that there is at least ONE town in that group, then I might use [Uzay/Michael/Poly] as a single slot in my towncore for now and try to look outside of it for scum.

Also, if we can somehow confirm that there are TWO town in that group without lynching any of them, then there's at least 3 scum outside of this group, which would further motivate me to start looking outside of [Uzay/Michael/Poly].

Btw Why Everyone is assuming scum number is 6?

Okay, Uzay. How many scum do you think are in the game? Do you think it's around six, greater than six, or less than six? And don't give me the standard "there's no way to tell right now" sounding answer that I feel like you and others have been giving me all game. Actually form an opinion on this.

TBH I thought We have either 4 or 5.

[UzayAltay]

Anyone wanna play tic tac toe?


|_|_|O|
|_|X|_|
|X|_|O|

[UzayAltay]

I found some things You Dont Like and some questions You asked , but it is All .

Good job on minimizing my points to 'things I don't like and some questions I asked'. Way to go.

Here, I'll help you. These are the three points I brought up earlier:
-- When provided a list of five people that Dota mentioned could have 3 scum in it, Michael selected Google to be the towniest over ET and Poly
-- Is suddenly not liking ET after not mentioning them at all pretty much the entire game and only AFTER Dota finds a reason to put them in his PoE?
-- Is suddenly feeling confident about Acidic without explanation after suddenly feeling not confident when given a chance to vote them yesterday and tie up their wagon with his. (and apparently, they've found another reason today to suddenly not vote Acidic even though they're feeling more confident that they're scum than Jackson).

And then here are more points that I brought up earilier D4 than that:
-- Had the same jokey, not taking things serious tone that HTG had (the evidence I gave was them proposing to thunderdome each other but not actually doing anything with it).
-- Also shaded me unnecessarily, just like HTG, for wanting to take a break from catching up during D3.
-- Making shallow threats to scumread Jackson.

And these are just points I brought up during D4. I've brought up other points during other days, too, but the ones above all come up in the first page of my ISO, so I don't know how you missed them if you're reading my posts from most recent to oldest.

I didnt took 1 4 5 as A reason
If I Did 4 and 5 Everyone would say " Dont use somebody else's play to read somebody "
1 can be geniune
I Dont remember What I thought about 2-3-6 , but I very well remember I didnt find anything AI upon looking your ISO? for posts about Michael

The only one I'll fully relent on is #2, but that's based on something that has happened today rather than yesterday.

For #4 and #5... okay. Let me ask you this then. Do you think it's reasonable to scumread the kind of shading that HTG was doing towards me, regardless if it came from HTG or not? What about if it came from HTG specifically? And then what about if it came from Michael specifically? I want an answer for all three.

For #1, if you were in Michael's place answering the question given to him, who would you have picked?

Let me start with Last one , I would choose et , but Google is my second .
Shading can normally be Scummy , I agree , but , Shading A person that is townread by Everyone/most people? I Dont know How This is AI (excepting the situation it would have lasted too long) . I Dont even remember anyone scumread HTG based Shading You .
2 is AI If it exist , I would Check that .
Also , I want to answer Why Michael was Null at that point : Because nobody come up with any argument Why they are AI . Your point 2 is The one that was most AI So far . Poly's reason , I remember tunneling them for that and they were town . ( 18E) Chemist couldnt convince me it isnt A geniune read .

[UzayAltay]

I didnt mess with Debil or HTG wagon , Pretty sure

---------------------
I'm talking about this, for Debil:

@Hyena Dota is one of my TRs and I don't think they are doing that .
I dont think anyone' s stance on Debil is indicative at all , given Debil was not a lynch target until they are shot .
HTG , is different . They are lynched . Interactions with HTG can be very well indicative .
I think Sparking is thinking Poly is town just based on that .
I dont have the concern I will be lynched before poly , given that I will venge poly in return . My main concern is nobody would solve that and lynch me or him until it is too late .

Do you know why Debil wasn't a lynch target? Because no one outside of me and Poly wanted him lynched. THAT'S why he wasn't a lynch target. Why didn't you want to lynch him? Why didn't you even comment on Debil much in spite of him having an active scumread on you? Did you even care about anything that Debil posted?

Bruh debil is scum they've slipped like 3 times or something.

Show them or I will assume that never happened

---------------------
And this, for HTG:

/vote htg

EVERYONE THIS IS A GOOD WAGON

htg:
- did NOTHING to solve the watchme/jackson problem day 1 (like, actually 0 posts)
- is only TUNNELING players (which is a legit scum strategy)
- does NOT develop on her ideas and pretty much forgets the reads shes done in the past (meaning she did them not for the sake of, you know, using them)
- finds a way to jump on EVERY top wagon despite not scumreading the person on the wagon initially (watchme 0ver uzay)

TBH I will prefer them answering me First , with 3 Quotes of cases on me ( he claimed there are 60 cases on me , and they shouldn't write 61st one ) .

My vote is staying on poly. I may be able to be here at EOD , but no guarantee .
TBH I would want to hear some More defense from HTG , but it seems they're AFK So .

TBH HTG should have been lockscum The moment they came , but dodged my question Because I was not here .

My vote is staying on poly. I may be able to be here at EOD , but no guarantee .
TBH I would want to hear some More defense from HTG , but it seems they're AFK So .

So, we almost lynched Jackson at EoD yesterday. The main reason we were unsuccessful was because we didn't have the numbers, even with Google's corpse on the wagon, when we tried to CFD there. You have been scumreading Jackson pretty much the entire game, and if your vote had been on Jackson rather than Poly, the lynch on Jackson might've gone through instead of on HTG. What do you think of the wagons on Jackson and Michael at EoD yesterday? Do you think we were wagoning scum (Jackson and Michael) before we moved back to HTG?

TBH I was suprised Jackson got most votes when I am away .
Actually , as I remember All wagons happened Because HTG self-pres , and 2-3 other people jumping on These . I Dont Actually have A clear opinion on Michael . Jackson , I would support but If I was here , I would vote HTG over Jackson Because HTG never answered my question, and their EOD . I would probably prefer Poly over Jackson , too , Because Jackson's Day 3 wasnt bad ( I think somebody else mentioned that , too ) .
I Dont think We can gain anything from analyzing wagons in terms of wagon's alignment , my opinion on that two people didnt change much, too .

Come on I need to see "scumslip" to see its validity
Like How This is even messing with wagon
Also First two is my opinion , I didnt even object dota's reasons , I just didnt vote Because HTG didnt defend against me .
Third one is pmuch True , Because that Shows they make up reason to push me .
I Also didnt understand How 3 or 4 is relevant , they are after HTG is lynched .

[SparkingJay]

cu

[SparkingJay]

I feel like jackson has the mafia version of my role

@Acidic Derpclear denied

Not a derp clear. I can clearly see jackson softing my role.

also multi is trending down for me

that analysis makes him look pretty bad, also keeping in mind my tr of acidic

My impression is that Acidic was caring for htg too much to be a scum.

could you rephrase that?

I mean why would scum care so much who will be lynched if it could mean they will be next? Acidic genuinely believed htg is town and didn't want her lynch.

For the first one I fail to grasp how it is AI

Because it is a slip that I literally explained in my last post.

For the second one
1) Lynch is better than nolynch therefore scum pursuing for a nolynch is a valid tactic
2) Perhaps they think htg was scum
3) If they vote htg they risk being venge (assuming they assume htg is town)

There was also a lot of doubt on acidic at that time so if htg was lynch then that's one lynch closer to them being lynched. By not voting they bring about a possibility of a nolynch which would delay their lynch because htg would still be focused on the next day.

While deepwolf scum wouldnt really care who is lynch as theyd live to endgame, acidic was solidly in poe zone so they would have to, as scum, worry about who gets lynched.

Ofc nolynch is worse and would setup a lynch for Acidic the next day, looking back through they didn't actually say they weren't going to vote HTG but to be fair their progression on the lynch is inconsistent.
Spoiler: EoD D3:

Options before i hammer please

D4:

Wanted a nolynch due to me being unconfident turns out it was the wrong play.

Thinking HTG is scum would require a lot of trust in the read. It is more plausible that scum!Acidic would want to avoid a vengekill rather than save a possible scum. What's weird is they brought it up D4, not sure how AI it is:

Theres no threat of me being venge killed from town!htg here. Im gkad you hammered tbh since i doubt i would have.

True but would also bring attention to Acidic, it's a risky play whether town will see you as villa or wolf for doing that.