8M | OCTOPATH | Game Over | Town Wins!

[ObiWan]

^RIP me

[melanora]

So here's the thing - I don't have a strong read on anyone - I have a strong read on like everyone.

My paranoia is getting the better of me and I think I need to probably step away for the night after this post.


So I went back and reread Gent's ISO looking for hints or signs as to why, and the same with Arckas and TP.
Here's the thing - I've now basically convinced myself we're not going to find shit and trying to analyze it is now a waste of time and I regret doing it. Until there's some sort of a pattern, like, there's just not much there from D1.

I've pretty much overly worked myself up at this point and then I reread the same post a few times and it's freaking me out man.

Idk I may be back in a bit but I had this whole post worked out as to why to target Gent and the TLDR of it was I have no idea why Gent was targetted because there was every reason and yet zero reason and the post was basically paranoid rambles.

This feels like VLDR.

[Arcthurus]

I meant to say that I wouldn't RB either of them. There was literally way better targets all over the place. They made no sense for RB targets.

Arckas is a relatively good player lately, is what I meant, whereas TP has no FM experience. I feel like Arckas can bullshit is way through things whereas TP, if he's scum, I think he'll out himself.

I see, that makes more sense I think. But to say there were better targets is to say there were people worth suspecting. Are there? ,':^)
That second sentence should point towards a town-oriented rb then, no?

[Arcthurus]

So here's the thing - I don't have a strong read on anyone - I have a strong read on like everyone.

[melanora]

I meant to say that I wouldn't RB either of them. There was literally way better targets all over the place. They made no sense for RB targets.

Arckas is a relatively good player lately, is what I meant, whereas TP has no FM experience. I feel like Arckas can bullshit is way through things whereas TP, if he's scum, I think he'll out himself.

I see, that makes more sense I think. But to say there were better targets is to say there were people worth suspecting. Are there? ,':^)
That second sentence should point towards a town-oriented rb then, no?

I meant louder people.


If I was mafia, the person to RB is TrueGent.


Then again Gent is dead so what do I know.

If I was town I would have probably RBd.... no one actually.

[melanora]

This is why I keep saying these RBs make ZERO sense. IDK who Consort/Escort is, but in the post game, would love some explanation from y'all as to why, unless you did roll the dice, in which case someone owes me money for calling it so early.

[melanora]

It just dawned on me that we have a Neutral and no one is claiming attacked/healed, doused, or witched.

...

SWORDS DID YOU PUT STALKER IN THIS GAME.

[Arckas]

Have jester's/executioners been phased out?

[Arcthurus]

Klepto/warlock are possibilites, along witch hitting mafia. I think thats all the NEs, which most definitely is what the neutral slot is.

[melanora]

Have jester's/executioners been phased out?

Yes thank god.

SWORDS IS2G IF A JESTER OR EXECUTIONER IS HERE I'LL MAKE YOU CHANGE YOUR BIRTHDAY.

[Arckas]

Klepto/warlock are possibilites

Oh no who are these

[Nellyfox]

what are these roles lol

also im not catching up until tomorrow sry

[Jerme]

Imma list what I assume about the mentioned roles, the not listed ones are those of which I got 0 clue about
- Stalker: a roleblock-Werewolf for non attackers (working only on visitors)
- Klepto: Visits someone and steals their action
But I got no clue of the Warlock, except if its ability is to link two people and make one of them experience every thing that happens to the other one as well...

Currently is reading people on this for me quite difficult. Somke people are inactive and the others are posting in a not readable way for me. I think that Rick and Arc are town though, based on what they posted.

[ObiWan]

Jerme anyone scummy to you?
Besides met, I suppose

[melanora]

Neither Klepto or Stalker is a thing.

The only Neutrals we have these days are SK or Witch.


IF Swords went down that route - well there's a lot of possibilities idk but I don't like not knowing.

[Guzame]

Have jester's/executioners been phased out?

Yes thank god.

SWORDS IS2G IF A JESTER OR EXECUTIONER IS HERE I'LL MAKE YOU CHANGE YOUR BIRTHDAY.

Oh, darn. Those were two of my favorite roles. And was actually what I assumed the neutral role was this game >_>

Although "not all roles are standard roles" . So who knows.

[melanora]

I mean "cop" isn't a standard role or whatever.

We've pretty much been phasing out Neutral roles just because people complained and also everyone hated Stalker which still pisses me off.

[TurdPile]

Alriiight, 4AM and finally getting around to this, hazah!

Before I go into detail on my thought, I'd like to re-iterate that I'm walking into this not knowing normal behaviors of people in order to meta-game properly. So all my thoughts are based on what I feel when I read peoples posts. Whether that ends up being the "norm" for said person, so be it.

Let's start with the ones I feel strongest about.

Arckas:

An idea that’s maybe not sensible is have the roleblockers block who they blocked before. If me and/or TurdPile don’t recieve a message saying they were roleblocked, we know we are dealing with a consort.

I’m happy to be roleblocked again for the sake of testing this.

This part sketched me out for a couple reasons. Firstly, if it was consensus that both of us should be roleblocked again, it would make no sense from both perspectives. The logic here is completely flawed in my opinion for a few reasons. If I was an Escort, I would RB you once, then move onto the next person. If there happened to be another death, that might flag suspicion that the first person could be a killer of sorts. If I was a consort, I would probably go after the quiet people as well, because I think the PR roles would want to stay silent to avoid the spotlight, especially if no information was earned. I'd say of I was a consort, it was smart move going after someone like me.

A conclusion: RockFire is mafia and they had a lengthy discussion about players. One of the mafia members is from Cytokine and said I had a lot of experience and this influenced RockFire to make a slip like this.

This however, I actually really like the logic put behind this, and would veer towards agreeing.

Overall, I have a strong feeling that Arckas is Town.

Flipping the coin, I feel Nelly is quite evil. Although I can't point towards a definitive source as to why, it has been nagging me since the day 1 talks. This is only reaffirmed in my mind by her most recent accusation based on the death note given. We'll know soon enough whether this feeling of mine is genuine or completely led astray, I suppose. But either way, I'm going to put my foot down with my gut feeling here: /vote Nellyfox.

Rick: From what it seems, he loves to write novels. And it also seems that he has a history of writing novels. However, the accusations being thrown left and right, and constantly throwing the microscope under multiple different people repeatedly raises alarms in my mind. Almost like putting multiple targets on a field and watching as people spread out and lose the overall focus while looking at their individual suspect; essentially possibly losing Town cohesion. Unsure on Rick exactly, but he has pressured quite a few people while only defending a couple (ender, Arc, Mel). Me current thought is that Rick is mildly evil.

ObiWan: I forget what was said, but I have a feeling ObiWan is mildly Town.

enderitem: I forget exactly what was said again, and I can't be assed to go back and find what it was. Ender defended M4x, and accused Guzame (just mentioning, not meaning anything by those actions). But I have the impression that Ender is slightly evil. This may also be biased of the fact that I suspect Rick could be evil, and Rick has taken to ender's side a few times (iirc).

Veeena/M4x: Do I still call you M4x? Or Veeena? I'm confused now. Anyway, just noting here that they strongly defended Naru. If either of them end up being Mafia, I would strongly conclude the other is Mafia as well. If either are Town, well, then this logic doesn't apply as much.

RockFire: Rick also against Guzame. Rock also heavily agreed with Arckas post-analysis, and due to my bias of thinking Arckas is Town, I will let this one simmer. That being said, it would not surprise me in the least if he was evil, especially after agreeing with Arckas' logic that it was a slip of the tongue. Not really enough base here to think strongly one way or another, so I will put RockFire as slightly Town.

Mel: Someone mentioned about evils just fluffing posts, and I feel like Mel is partially doing this. However, at the same time they did steer the conversation back after a minor tangent, so there's equal weights in my mind for Mel, so I will leave Mel as neutral. Neutral alignment, but possibly the neutral.

Guzame: I really saw nothing that wrong with his death note analysis and him spitballing his logic (or pointlessness in doing so). I have no impression on Guzame one way or another.

Naru2008: No impression, minus the Veeena/M4x defense.

Jerme/Lexiam/Met/Arc/Nhero/Schultz: No impression one way or another yet.

I feel once tomorrow comes, I will have a much stronger opinion on things.

[RockFire]

I thought we weren't going to try and figure out the rolelist with one person dead because it was going to lead nowhere. Honestly, I wouldn't put it past Swords to do anything this game so I'd say keep an open mind. I doubt Stalker because that ship is already really flimsy.

Anyway onto the previous post because it's super weird to me.
Spoiler: TP is making weird reads and I'm bothered by it. He likes Arckas because of what he said about me being scum yet I'm Town because I apparently agreed with him even though what I did was clarify what I meant to say?

Flipping the coin on Nelly expression bothers me regardless of anything because of it seems too loose to say when makinh reads. He said her accusation was why he's wary of her but she just said what impression the DN gave her and didn't really pursue that line of thinking. Seems like thinly veiled OMGUS for even mentioning TP could have written the DN which is super odd to be protective about that.

I don't understand the Rick thing at all considering it's not what he's been doing? It's been less than 48 hours and apparently asking people stuff is losing cohesion. What.

Max defending Naru? What game are you reading because I've never seen any of that and you made me paranoid enough to check.

Isn't being neutral on someone the same as no impression? Why even have a difference if they mean the same thing?

Meanwhile he gives a blurb on why he reads Guzame as no impression but nothing similar for Arc and Met who have said and done more?

The rest are at least coasters so it makes sense but what even is that read list?

TLDR TP is making weird reads and to quote TrueGent more or less, I'm not sure if that's him being bad or scum.

[LevinSnakesRise]

Apparently TP thought M4x giving a read on me was defending me.

I'll also call personal bias on his vote on Nelly just cause I know things, so I call bias.

Also, in the future, if any of the common FM-players use acronyms; For the sake of those who don't know what they mean tp please use the full expression with the acronym in parentheses to avoid confusion for those unaware of such acronyms.

[Nellyfox]

z

Spoiler:

/Died Horribly


Kidding. Too soon?

Damn I'm tired. What about the rest of the lot of you?

hey what does this mean

The presence of it says more than the substance I say. Considering you never need to leave a death note in Mafia ever which I would assume people would do if they're fairly inexperienced. This points to one or more people that know what they're doing in the mafia with the kill and the DN even existing.

see? this ain't it, chief

this ain't it either my guy
rock's being dumb but it's not like the mafia is a lone player right now

yay I am able to wake up from my peaceful to see d2.
@Naru: I am sleepy too.

hey what does this mean

Interesting reveal. We have to roleblockers.

I understand why TurdPile is irresistible, but me? Someone had to make the tactical choice. Was it something I said yesterday?

did you even say anything day 1?
i'm commentating this as i go along so if someone points it out later sry but you were definitely a tactical choice for being roleblocked

Thoughts on which alignment would RB who?

Seems like both were quiet and in that gray area really so I don't think we can pin down an alignment this early

false

not only was gent n1'd

not only was gent the cop

gent the cop got fucking n1'd in a mod game

nerds

This should be the usual reaction.

That's... An interesting choice for a night 1 kill. I assume they picked Gent because they were one of the least likely players to be protected tonight?

I'm looking at the death note, trying to think of who'd leave a message like that. It's got a surprising amount of personality to it, especially with a Lenny face of all things. It's not something I'd expect a lot of players to use. But then again, it could be done on purpose to make the more "memey" players look suspicious?

It's probably not worth it to pursue that line of thinking for now.

Not this. Explain further, guzame.

if we're using the meta game here then that is perfectly a reasonable reaction

Arckas for the scum RB and TP for the town RB.

Arckas can get away with a lot of stuff, I feel, whereas RBing TP just seems wayward and something a player without a lot of experience would do.

i'm glad we're practically on the same page

The more that I try to analyze WHY ARCKAS, it doesn't make sense. Like it literally doesn't.

You were quiet D1. I don't see any real logic behind it.

why would you even say what you just said and then make a complete u-turn
arckas' FM prime was prior to 5c (sorry pal i cant forgive you believing the jailor claim when they were an SK) which several people here are familiar with. so, if we're dealing with at least one consort (which i strongly believe), then one of those old-but-gold players is on the mafia, or, if the entire mafia just happens to be inexperienced players, they got intimidated. by the fact arckas can get away with a lot of stuff, like you said.
like even in vldr arckas is crazy good. it's natural to be intimidated by him, so i wouldnt be surprised if an escort got him either

I really don't like this post from Guzame.

I feel that speculation about especially the Night 1 kill in particular, but also the death note, are talking points that Scum would often use to try to push conversation forward in a meaningless way that wouldn't really go anywhere useful. Especially when he goes on to tack on a "probably not worth talking about this line", because then he pretty much admits the whole post is fluff in the first place.

Like, I don't know, I just imagine him as being more productive as Town if he acknowledges the pointlessness of the topic.

idk rick i'd say something like that too if i'm being completely honest
it's not like there's a ton to go off immediately after day start
also is it even fluff when people continue down the line of thought anyway

I want to say something about the Consort/Escort hypothetical but I honestly don't know what to say or how it helps us get anywhere. How will we know if there's two Escorts or two Consorts given what we know? However, THIS:

Could also be two Consorts, if we are going to give possible outcomes.

There's also the possibility someone is lying about being roleblocked.

This post sticks out like a sore thumb and I don't understand why Naru says especially this last line. :|

I will say that I doubt that Mafia has two Consorts if only because I'd be pissed to be a Mafia member and discover two Consorts. When will you ever need THAT MUCH rolestopping power? Honestly, at that point, I'd probably just get one of the Consorts to stop someone while the other one performs the factional kill. Why waste anyone else's action?

ok rick let's talk, meet me in the pit

Rick seems Town then for responding to me the way he just did considering he spent most of it yelling at me that I'm wrong about what he said being fluff considering he's super offended by the idea. Wanted to see what he'd say being poked.

um

Naru, saying someone is lying about being RBed as a sound strategy is flawed. No Town would say it since it would be pointless to lie to the rest of the town. No Neutral would lie about that either considering it's super easy to point out if they're RBed everyday or 1 RB disappears without an RB role dying. Mafia would be the only ones to perpetuate a lie like this and it would serve only to out them since they'd have to ping pong the RB claim between the four of them.

MEET me in the pit i swear to god

Also, it's been just about 24 hours and everyone besides Nelly has said something in this thread. I'd like to hear her thoughts on people as well considering she was fairly active during D1 memes but not anymore.

i know i already apologized here (and to you) but just because you namedropped me i feel obligated to apologize again
so sorry and i actually told ender i'd be away this weekend when he asked me to play but not that that actually matters anymore

But besides that, let's see at what information we have so far. we have one death, and two players claiming to be roleblocked. Every other player claims they did not have anything happen to them.

hey what the heck guz i didnt even say anything yet

I'm not someone who is used as an example of a good FM player. In fact whenever I'm asked about FM I tell people that I hardly know FM anymore as it's changed so much from source material and the last time I played it. Why does RockFire assume I'm good?

4b
(vldr2)

Flipping the coin, I feel Nelly is quite evil. Although I can't point towards a definitive source as to why, it has been nagging me since the day 1 talks. This is only reaffirmed in my mind by her most recent accusation based on the death note given. We'll know soon enough whether this feeling of mine is genuine or completely led astray, I suppose. But either way, I'm going to put my foot down with my gut feeling here: /vote Nellyfox.

i know it was 4am for you but i would like to know what your basis on this is

so now that i am here

Slept Peacefully.

am i the only one who finds this suspicious

re: escort vs consort (aka the pit)
personally i believe we are dealing with one of each, if the roleblock claims are to be believed. however, i do not trust in both arckas and tp's claims. in fact, i actually believe tp is lying. with my first impression of the death note (which, again, if we're gonna use the ~ meta gaming ~ line of thinking, if my memory isnt failing me i would more often than not go after death notes people left), tp's first post seemed...forced? to me. idk if thats the right word to be using but i didnt like it

so uh idk about the mafia rules cause it's been like 15 years lol but i forgot factional kills was a thing and i think this backs up my gut a little more
i don't think tp was roleblocked. i think there is a chance he is faking it. and since i am believing in both escort and consort existing, this means that gent was the target of the second roleblocker, which would of course be a consort.

continuing this line of thought, i don't believe naru's post about 2 consorts is weird at all, and i agree with met over rick - i would love two consorts on my mafia team

i know in my big catch up post i pretty much implied arckas = consort rb and tp = escort rb. that is one possible explanation and i am not against exploring everything. i do think it is the likely scenario if tp is actually being honest about being roleblocked and that gent wasnt roleblocked. however, my gut says believe the former, and with tp's vote on me with a very weak reason, it feels especially strengthened

[Jerme]

@Nelly: I just meant that I died in my first FM-like game (this is my second) in the first night, so I am just happy to see day 2, which I've added as my personal main goal in my own thoughts channel. And then I replied to Naru, who told he was tired (so this was a more or less offtopic talk).
@Obi: I currently do not have much of a scum read. Lexiams inactivity irks me a bit, but that might just be me. Also Schultz is currnetly a bit quiet. I am not sure if this is typical for him, so I cannot judge it. He should be experiened too much to just sit there and be quiet, though.

[Arckas]

Could I ask y’all doubt roleblocked claims?

Inherently those aren’t statements to question their legitimacy. If you think they are suspicious statements, what purpose would they serve to say them?

[Arckas]

Normally statement like with what happened to someone at night are expected to be brought up and generally believed. Maybe later evidence pops up that question if they are real or not, but otherwise believed they are. The fact people aren't believing in ordinate statements of being claiming to be roleblocked suggests there is evidence that would question the legitimacy of that claim, but so far nothing substantial other then gut and "feeling forced" have been used as a counterpoint.

Saying that the targets for being roleblocked make no sense is also flimsy reasoning. It's day 1, anyone can be anything. Using and RNG generator for day 1 is a reasonable choice.

To the people doubting these statement out of hand for flimsy reasoning really makes me feel like they have an ulterior motive.

[enderitem]

Spoiler:

Thoughts

Ender thinking the people who he wants to dome today, don't deserve his vote is really killing me right now.

R*ck making walls. I like Os post about Ender/Lex. I is town for the time being.

Mel is unreadable for me but I think that'll be cleares up once we start getting wagons.

I'd be elated if I had two consorts in my mafia. I don't think that Naru post was weird.

Why are you censoring Rick and why are you focusing so much on a matter I have already explained. It does nothing but irk me.

Spoiler:

I am awaiting Lexiam to respond to the past negative connotations people have been giving to him. It would seem quite interesting know what his reactions would be. I fear for some of you that reading me from an ISO perspective is going to be the worst way you can do so at these times.

I am sure you do realize your current status was just slightly above Lex and guzame's at the time. Although, it is impossible to question you of the matter and get a proper answer.

Spoiler:

Again, this is either Town fluffing, or Scum trying to fake contribution imo.

So I'm either Town or scum. I didn't realize those were the only two things I could be. That just seems like saying something to say something. Which is also fluff. Surprise.

Rick died today.
We couldn't find his body, he was utterly destroyed.
My play on Rick will be ignoring him till the time he needs to be tunneled. Otherwise, you hurt yourself more than you gain because of how powerful his wordplay is. A good example to this case is mel.

Spoiler:

Okay, so let me be clear since some people here haven't played in a while or rarely play. Nobody volunteers for any of this RB business because it's a bad idea since it gives scum information. It's more helpful to them than Town.

In other news, Jerme is a town read now because I'm fairly sure he doesn't play a lot and what he just did pings noob Town to me along with just doing gut stuff because I remember being much the same way way back when I first started. And what he just did.

I think I am getting more and more confident that Rock is Town at this point. His line of questioning is generally genuine and he seems to control the discussion in the right manner. Although, Jerme's and I quote "baseless gutfeel" really needs to be better established... even though I can't help but agree with him. It might be Met's smug aura that is mocking me.

Spoiler:

Ender being very pushy with reads in his first few posts seems town for me since scum really come out as strongly and I think ender hasn't played as much to be able to fake that. Sorry if that's kind of rude to say.

Lastly, I don't have any particular stong scum reads yet aside from wanting to see what Ender said before about Lex and Guzame get responses from them and Schultz just popping in without really saying much contribution wise rubs me the wrong way.

It was. I am currently in tears. Schultz matter also rubbed me actually. Really want to see more from the only active FM Mod in this game.

Spoiler:

Arckas is pretty iffy because he has more experience. Not sure what he is until he says more.

>Says he has experience
>Played one game

It's kinda hard to conjure game altering maneuvers with so little information given. If you want to know how I feel about the situation- nothing has happened worthy of importance. Talking about how active people are talking and passing it off as something substantial is just unproductive and lame. Just entertaining the thought that you can tell someone alignment but how they type leads to confirmation bias.

I'd be more skeptical of people that are doing just that, but then I have to give them credit because this is a low information thinking man game of FM.

Stop it, by that logic you have played infinite times more than me. We all had played before taking long hiatuses.

Spoiler:

A conclusion: RockFire is mafia and they had a lengthy discussion about players. One of the mafia members is from Cytokine and said I had a lot of experience and this influenced RockFire to make a slip like this.

I hate using using past experiences to make a claim there's not much I can do when others are doing it.

This is a huge leap but it is similar to one you did in Cytokine Storm. It is confusing me the same way. I honestly do not understand how you manage to scumread my highest townreads in the game. However, I do not know if you would still say the same thing as Mafia even though I don't feel like you would.

Spoiler:

Not going to quote this, but Ender's entry into the game I ended up liking a lot. I found myself nodding a a lot of what he says here and in future posts, so his ISO looks good to me. Probably the most annoying thing about this post of his was the bit about the role list.

What whould this be, exactly? You say you agreed with a lot to what he had to say, but you actually seem to disagree on most points: he thinks Gent was on the right track, so he thinks the kill analysis is meaningful, you disagree-- he thinks confidently gent's scum reads are the lynch today, you present hesitation to look at them-- he believes the players discussing the DN (namely rock, guz e mela) were not doing so out of evil intent but of genuine contribution, you concluded exactly the opposite. This read is really weird, like cognitive dissonance. To be fair you did say the role list was the "most annoying" which would imply more annoyance but the wording still doesnt fit.

I actually need to check this out further eventually but it is Rick after all. Solely going of this and Rock's quote really ruins Rick's image for me.

Spoiler:

TrueGent was both in my last game I played and this one. In my experience with them, they have come across as a player who tends to be difficult to read because of short posts and a meme-y nature to them. Both in my last game and the current one, I had a scummy read on TrueGent from the start. I know others did as well, even in this game some people mention not being able to read TrueGent. Being difficult to read is a good quality to have to play this game, because you can play well both as mafia and as town. But it makes the game a more difficult for the town, because these players tend to cause confusion, and take attention away from other mafia players.
I was very surprised to see the mafia go for a player like this, instead of a player with a stronger town vibe.

I can not imagine that any town protective role would have picked Gent out of all of the active players last night.

Who are the players you had in mind then? Your explanation could have been said for Rick as well for example but would he be the least likely person to be protected? Is there any other player whose meta influences you this much? After all, ignoring someone's judgment of you just due to meta seems unnatural, don't you think? You explanation is pretty intricate but due to being unaware of said game, I can't establish if he seriously had such a deep effect on you.

Spoiler:

A conclusion: RockFire is mafia and they had a lengthy discussion about players. One of the mafia members is from Cytokine and said I had a lot of experience and this influenced RockFire to make a slip like this.

This however, I actually really like the logic put behind this, and would veer towards agreeing.

Overall, I have a strong feeling that Arckas is Town.

Flipping the coin, I feel Nelly is quite evil. Although I can't point towards a definitive source as to why, it has been nagging me since the day 1 talks. This is only reaffirmed in my mind by her most recent accusation based on the death note given. We'll know soon enough whether this feeling of mine is genuine or completely led astray, I suppose. But either way, I'm going to put my foot down with my gut feeling here: /vote Nellyfox.

You confuse me. I also didn't defend M4x, what are you even talking about? I want a more detailed explanation on these. Didn't get a good impression from this post due to various reasons. Arckas, what do you think of TP here?

Before Lex & Schultz make their appearances which seems like it will take a while, I want to ask everyone: What are you thoughts on TP and Arckas? From the looks of his reads, I don't think TP would think about fakeclaiming RB. I don't see anything beneficial for fakeclaiming RBed if the scum has no Consorts. Town shouldn't fakeclaim RBed to begin with.

I like the day has no end timer, we don't need to worry about ever stopping the discussion. The pace is fine as well.

I want to create a new topic but I am out of juice and I reeeeaaaaaaalllllyyyyyyy don't want to look at Rick's posts right now. Worst case scenario, either Lex/guzame/M4x or TP/Arckas matters will lead us somewhere.