9B (SP) | Spilled Drink | Game Over (Town Wins)

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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Elastoid » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:09 am

Eliah1102 wrote:I am more confident in the sam lynch than moon at the moment, what do others think?

I think you're confident in a Sam lynch because Moleland says you're town, and only because of that.

Sam just read you as Citizen/GF. I'm throwing this out there -- if he had said you were BMer I probably would have been ready to insta-lynch Moleland first and you second.

If he's mafia, and he's fabricating results, he's bad at it, is all I'm saying. Have you considered that Moleland might be mafia, and buddying with you so even if we catch him, we'll mislynch you after his flip?
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby teamalex » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:15 am

You're forgetting the fact that Mole stopped his lynch at L-whatever, 1-2?

It's very likely that they are the same alignment.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby SamuelJackson1972 » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:18 am

teamalex wrote:You're forgetting the fact that Mole stopped his lynch at L-whatever, 1-2?

It's very likely that they are the same alignment.

I share your suspicions, but If rather get the more obvious member first.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby SamuelJackson1972 » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:20 am

SamuelJackson1972 wrote:
teamalex wrote:You're forgetting the fact that Mole stopped his lynch at L-whatever, 1-2?

It's very likely that they are the same alignment.

I share your suspicions, but I'd rather get the more obvious member first.

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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Elastoid » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:21 am

teamalex wrote:You're forgetting the fact that Mole stopped his lynch at L-whatever, 1-2?

It's very likely that they are the same alignment.

I'm not forgetting. But I also respect the possibility that the lynch occurs anyway because no one believes his claim.

It's possible that he claimed to force Doctor to heal him (and therefore not self-heal), for instance. Or, to draw the SK kill so he could ensure the SK didn't kill his scumbuddy.

Heck -- it's possible Moleland is GF, and claimed to draw the SK, regardless of whether the Doc healed him.

I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario. If Moleland is scum, Eliah is also PROBABLY scum. But I believe in methodically considering options, and we have to make room for the possibility that Eliah is town. Of course, doing so means making room for the possibility that YOU are scum.

That's a decision I'm so glad I don't have to make today.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby teamalex » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:32 am

#possiblities

I hope Taylor alerted and makes it easier because I'm seriously confused.

Oh, by the way, if we think a Disguiser doesn't exist and Sam is legit - this leaves Moon, Poly and Eliah as the GF suspects and you, Elastoid, me and Mole as the RM suspects. Considering the fact that Mole would be confirmed scum because of the rolelist. It would put you and me against eachother.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby teamalex » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:34 am

Actually Mole could be GF but it doesn't change much.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby teamalex » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:36 am

Eliah1102 wrote:Yeah guys I am obviously, scum and the mafia kill of true was just for lulz. I already explained why mole cant be scum.

WIFOM.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Elastoid » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:39 am

I didn't even fucking consider Disguiser.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Elastoid » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:48 am

If mafia have a Disguiser, then they are missing either a Consig or a BM.

If they're missing Consig, that makes a scum Moleland claim very strange UNLESS he's GF.
If they're missing BM, that means mafia knew that Tilted was SK, and they lied deliberately in the DN.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Moleland » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:52 am

Elastoid wrote:
Moleland wrote:Thanks arc...

People mess up and panic all the time. If she is godfather as I believe, she was lucky to get that role and not another scum because two TIs checked her night 1...

What caused her to panic?

That's the question. She was being townread, she had nothing to panic about.

I mean, town!moonbird might have panicked that the town was in mylo and the missing kill might have led Taylor to a mislynch of Gent. Scum!moonbird has no reason to panic.

This is true... But why did Evil not note that Moonbird was healed? That's Doctoring 101 for will keeping
Host record
Spoiler: CofC 1 Tilted, PitIcarus and Lokiben WIN
CofC 2 NDM, Elusive, Sircakez, Swampy157, Kirize12, Transportowiec96, Moon and Samuel WIN
Fort: Tower EOTT WIN
Cluafia 1 Innocents WIN
CofC 3 Chubby WIN
Cluafia 2 Innocents WIN
CofC 4 Samuel, Elusive and PKR WIN
Pokémon BtM EOTT WIN
GIBtM Samuel WIN
T&E BtM BRVR WIN
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Moleland » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:55 am

Elastoid wrote:I didn't even fucking consider Disguiser.

Well.. There isn't a disguiser because Mafia have a consig and bmer? Or was The SK lying about the message?
Host record
Spoiler: CofC 1 Tilted, PitIcarus and Lokiben WIN
CofC 2 NDM, Elusive, Sircakez, Swampy157, Kirize12, Transportowiec96, Moon and Samuel WIN
Fort: Tower EOTT WIN
Cluafia 1 Innocents WIN
CofC 3 Chubby WIN
Cluafia 2 Innocents WIN
CofC 4 Samuel, Elusive and PKR WIN
Pokémon BtM EOTT WIN
GIBtM Samuel WIN
T&E BtM BRVR WIN
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Elastoid » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:55 am

Moleland wrote:
Elastoid wrote:
Moleland wrote:Thanks arc...

People mess up and panic all the time. If she is godfather as I believe, she was lucky to get that role and not another scum because two TIs checked her night 1...

What caused her to panic?

That's the question. She was being townread, she had nothing to panic about.

I mean, town!moonbird might have panicked that the town was in mylo and the missing kill might have led Taylor to a mislynch of Gent. Scum!moonbird has no reason to panic.

This is true... But why did Evil not note that Moonbird was healed? That's Doctoring 101 for will keeping

That's a good question. Possible answers include a mistake (he didn't self-heal so he clearly didn't expect to be attacked) or that he was following moonbird's lead, as he was townreading her and knew she was lying.

I can't ask Evil, but that omission makes her look like an attractive lynch at first. If there comes a point where someone can explain GF moonbird's reasoning in claiming when she did, I'll probably listen, but they've got a very hard case to make. It'd be borderline gamethrowing to call suspicion on yourself like that.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Moleland » Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:57 am

People screw up.

We need Taylork to come on
Host record
Spoiler: CofC 1 Tilted, PitIcarus and Lokiben WIN
CofC 2 NDM, Elusive, Sircakez, Swampy157, Kirize12, Transportowiec96, Moon and Samuel WIN
Fort: Tower EOTT WIN
Cluafia 1 Innocents WIN
CofC 3 Chubby WIN
Cluafia 2 Innocents WIN
CofC 4 Samuel, Elusive and PKR WIN
Pokémon BtM EOTT WIN
GIBtM Samuel WIN
T&E BtM BRVR WIN
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Elastoid » Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:03 pm

Moleland wrote:People screw up.

See, that just doesn't jive with me.

Like, they screw up trying to do something. There's no version of events in which moonbird did the smart thing -- I mean, the SK wouldn't get an "immune" message if she was healed, so a smart SK would know she wasn't GF. So her reaction test was objectively garbage, even when you townread her.

Still, the town moonbird screwed up trying to find a creative way to suss out the SK's identity as Citizen. The scum moonbird screwed up trying to... what? Dispel imaginary suspicion on her? Make a push on the SK that she knew was already coming from Sam?

The only version of GF moonbird that makes an iota of sense is if you're scum, too, and so she didn't know Sam was going to claim and out the SK. Then her push on Tilted might seem like a fair objective, but even that's dumb as hell and very suspect.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Moleland » Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:06 pm

It is easy making judgements in hindsight - we can't know what Moonbird was thinking. If she is GF then she mega messed up. If she is town then Evil mega messed up not updating his will.

It doesn't make a lot of sense, but it is the more likely version of 2 implausible scenerios.
Host record
Spoiler: CofC 1 Tilted, PitIcarus and Lokiben WIN
CofC 2 NDM, Elusive, Sircakez, Swampy157, Kirize12, Transportowiec96, Moon and Samuel WIN
Fort: Tower EOTT WIN
Cluafia 1 Innocents WIN
CofC 3 Chubby WIN
Cluafia 2 Innocents WIN
CofC 4 Samuel, Elusive and PKR WIN
Pokémon BtM EOTT WIN
GIBtM Samuel WIN
T&E BtM BRVR WIN
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Elastoid » Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:19 pm

Moleland wrote:It is easy making judgements in hindsight - we can't know what Moonbird was thinking. If she is GF then she mega messed up. If she is town then Evil mega messed up not updating his will.

It doesn't make a lot of sense, but it is the more likely version of 2 implausible scenerios.

"Mega messed up" is just dismissive. You don't "mega mess up" without TRYING TO DO SOMETHING.

I mean, let's say that your girlfriend pulls out a crowbar and hits you in the knee, knocking you off your feet, then beats you about the head and arms continuously. You are badly hurt, and she leaves you in a ditch where it could be presumed that you would die, but you somehow find help and survive.

We can definitely agree that she failed in her objective, but would you say that she "mega messed up" in trying to kill you, or "mega messed up" in attempting to get you to propose to her so you two could be together forever?

Saying "I think she was trying to propose, but she just REALLY HARDCORE FUCKED UP" wouldn't really cut it. You have to look at intent -- no reasonable person would think that what she was doing would accomplish that goal.

No reasonable person would expect that GF moonbird would gain anything from the claim. Saying she made a mistake -- either way, that's true. But saying "I guess she's GF and the mistake was just a bigger one" is like saying "I think my girlfriend really loves me and the crowbar was just a bad way to express it."
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Moleland » Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:30 pm

Bit of strawmanning there but I see your point.

I don't know what Moon was trying to achieve, but I reckon that are lying about being healed. *shrugs*

TAYLORK WHERE ARE YOU? YOU ALREADY MADE ME WASTE MY TIME LAST NIGHT, YOU COULD AT LEAST SHOW UP SOON... AAAAHHHHH
Host record
Spoiler: CofC 1 Tilted, PitIcarus and Lokiben WIN
CofC 2 NDM, Elusive, Sircakez, Swampy157, Kirize12, Transportowiec96, Moon and Samuel WIN
Fort: Tower EOTT WIN
Cluafia 1 Innocents WIN
CofC 3 Chubby WIN
Cluafia 2 Innocents WIN
CofC 4 Samuel, Elusive and PKR WIN
Pokémon BtM EOTT WIN
GIBtM Samuel WIN
T&E BtM BRVR WIN
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Elastoid » Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:35 pm

Alex, here's my problem. I'm townreading you. I'm scumreading Moleland. I'm townreading moonbird.

As you said, Poly/Moleland/Eliah mafia don't work unless Disguiser. As far as reads go, though, it makes more sense to me than Poly/Moleland/You.

Poly/Moleland makes a lot of sense to me, though. Moleland is supposedly SUPER into lynching Poly, which is why he swaps to Jord and gets him to self-hammer? I don't think so.

Plus, Poly/Moleland both voted Jord. Think Eliah did as well. Having scum on that mislynch makes a lot of sense. What are your thoughts?
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby teamalex » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:03 pm

I did have Mole marked as the more likely mafia because of the Gent investigation and the quote which I misunderstood. Also the fact that he was talking about lynching Poly, even though he had a mafia result on him. The claim itself is quite good, considering how he protected Eliah against me D3 and launched an attack against me and Sam D4: keep in mind, with no actual evidence, empty accusations. However, I feel like he has changed a lot today: even though saying he visited Taylor Mole has tried hard to prove his innocence. Not sure if he's aware of this but that has created more associations for us if he was to flip scum. I think he's experienced enough to know this. We'll see if Taylor confirms him as scum or not. Because if he doesn't, I think Moleland is more likely to flip town right now.

Eliah was also rather scummy to me D3 and D4. Especially the overconfidence with saying that I'm going down and stuff. However I can't tell if he's not smart or just mafia. His tunnelvision on me was quite odd, I have to say. I can't use meta aswell because pretty much every game he has played so far Eliah's been scum.

Sam's claim is still rather odd to me. The Cit claim beforehand can be seen as townmotivated but IIRC he really hasn't shown any consistence with the claim. I'm pretty sure at one point he even said something about being unimportant and that he's willing to take the bullet(D3). Also the fact that Persian was conf. scum from his PoV but he still preferred a Poly lynch.

I need to see more from Moon to make a conclusion. I want her full thoughts about the mafia setup, Sam v Mole etc. I haven't really thought about mafia!Moonbird until yesterday and today.

Poly is a wildcard, I'll check CFM 14 and see if I can find any parallels. I need to hear from him aswell.

This is off of my memory, so forgive me for any misrep if there's any. I just don't have the time and a computer available to do any further research. I need to also reread D4 once again. Literally association hell.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby teamalex » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:06 pm

teamalex wrote:I did have Mole marked as the more likely mafia because of the Gent investigation and the quote which I misunderstood. Also the fact that he was talking about lynching Poly, even though he had a mafia result on Sam. The claim itself is quite good, considering how he protected Eliah against me D2 and launched an attack against me and Sam D3: keep in mind, with no actual evidence, empty accusations. However, I feel like he has changed a lot today: even though saying he visited Taylor Mole has tried hard to prove his innocence. Not sure if he's aware of this but that has created more associations for us if he was to flip scum. I think he's experienced enough to know this. We'll see if Taylor confirms him as scum or not. Because if he doesn't, I think Moleland is more likely to flip town right now.

Eliah was also rather scummy to me D2, D3 and D4. Especially the overconfidence with saying that I'm going down and stuff. However I can't tell if he's not smart or just mafia. His tunnelvision on me was quite odd, I have to say. I can't use meta aswell because pretty much every game he has played so far Eliah's been scum.

Sam's claim is still rather odd to me. The Cit claim beforehand can be seen as townmotivated but IIRC he really hasn't shown any consistence with the claim. I'm pretty sure at one point he even said something about being unimportant and that he's willing to take the bullet(D3). Also the fact that Persian was conf. scum from his PoV but he still preferred a Poly lynch.

I need to see more from Moon to make a conclusion. I want her full thoughts about the mafia setup, Sam v Mole etc. I haven't really thought about mafia!Moonbird until yesterday and today.

Poly is a wildcard, I'll check CFM 14 and see if I can find any parallels. I need to hear from him aswell.

This is off of my memory, so forgive me for any misrep if there's any. I just don't have the time and a computer available to do any further research. I need to also reread D4 once again. Literally association hell.


Fixed some mistakes, I think you'll get the point of the other stuff
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby teamalex » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:18 pm

Oh yeah, one more thing:

To Moon:

Mole vs Sam, which one is more likely to flip town and why?
Who are the other two mafia members in your opinion and why? Who do you think is the GF?
Why can't Poly be non-nightimmune Mafia? Remind me again.

Please don't randomly vote as we're in MyLo. One vote is enough to show your intentions and to pressure. Last thing we need is a scum quickhammer.

G'night.
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Moleland » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:18 pm

That is actually a good analysis Team, thank you.

If you are scum sir - GG. You aren't being lynched soon enough.
Host record
Spoiler: CofC 1 Tilted, PitIcarus and Lokiben WIN
CofC 2 NDM, Elusive, Sircakez, Swampy157, Kirize12, Transportowiec96, Moon and Samuel WIN
Fort: Tower EOTT WIN
Cluafia 1 Innocents WIN
CofC 3 Chubby WIN
Cluafia 2 Innocents WIN
CofC 4 Samuel, Elusive and PKR WIN
Pokémon BtM EOTT WIN
GIBtM Samuel WIN
T&E BtM BRVR WIN
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Elastoid » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:22 pm

Not sure about Sam/Mole, but to these two points:

teamalex wrote: I'm pretty sure at one point he even said something about being unimportant and that he's willing to take the bullet(D3). Also the fact that Persian was conf. scum from his PoV but he still preferred a Poly lynch.


1) He said he didn't think James was actually Vig (after 9C day 1 claim) and thus he wouldn't have expected to be shot. Being willing to take imaginary bullets, then.
2) I was reading his ISO and I think the preference for a Poly lynch came before Rhazh's BM claim.

P-edit: So if Sam is scum, we have to posit who as mafia?
If Moleland is scum (and no Disguiser) then I HAVE to conclude that you (alex) are scum as well.
Thus: Moleland, Alex, Poly/Eliah

If Sam is scum, that puts two of Alex, Poly and Eliah as scum?

(I'm not counting myself as scum because I know something you don't)
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Re: 9B (SP) | Day Six | British Citeazen

Postby Moleland » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:24 pm

Elastoid wrote:Not sure about Sam/Mole, but to these two points:

teamalex wrote: I'm pretty sure at one point he even said something about being unimportant and that he's willing to take the bullet(D3). Also the fact that Persian was conf. scum from his PoV but he still preferred a Poly lynch.


1) He said he didn't think James was actually Vig (after 9C day 1 claim) and thus he wouldn't have expected to be shot. Being willing to take imaginary bullets, then.
2) I was reading his ISO and I think the preference for a Poly lynch came before Rhazh's BM claim.

P-edit: So if Sam is scum, we have to posit who as mafia?
If Moleland is scum (and no Disguiser) then I HAVE to conclude that you (alex) are scum as well.
Thus: Moleland, Alex, Poly/Eliah

If Sam is scum, that puts two of Alex, Poly and Eliah as scum?

(I'm not counting myself as scum because I know something you don't)

Eliah is only scum if I'm not If Eliah is GF
Host record
Spoiler: CofC 1 Tilted, PitIcarus and Lokiben WIN
CofC 2 NDM, Elusive, Sircakez, Swampy157, Kirize12, Transportowiec96, Moon and Samuel WIN
Fort: Tower EOTT WIN
Cluafia 1 Innocents WIN
CofC 3 Chubby WIN
Cluafia 2 Innocents WIN
CofC 4 Samuel, Elusive and PKR WIN
Pokémon BtM EOTT WIN
GIBtM Samuel WIN
T&E BtM BRVR WIN
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