Winning as mafia with jailor meta might not be easy and take some luck, but it's definitely possible. Here is what I think mafia could do in this situation:
Supertcgamer wrote:You're making thia sound like it's easy. If RM does visit jailor they're risking being found out by a spy/lo combo.
A lookout/spy combo is not that likely. But the possibility of it existing is actually the reason why RM
must visit the jailor. If they don't, the lookout and spy will confirm everyone who visited the jailor as not mafia, which will be catastrophic for them. Having one of you suspected as mafia is better than having 3 or more confirmed townies from day 2. Besides, with the lookout nerf town won't be able to be 100% sure a visitor is mafia. But visiting the jailor increases the chances of the lookout not seeing an actual townie.
Supertcgamer wrote: Not to mention depending on the roles in RTs will easily get people thinking, hm one tp and 3 RTS when jailor has a LO on him that spotted 3 visits.
Games with more than 1 TP aren't that rare. Even then, there are lots of ways to justify visits. TPs, lookouts, spies and escorts might visit the jailor n1. If there are lots of TP claims, mafia can always try to make jailor exe a TP. Sure, it's not easy, but that's because playing as mafia takes more skill than playing as town.
Supertcgamer wrote:Say game A has 4 tps and two extra visits from maf from both RM.
It's not necessary for both RM to visit the jailor. One is enough to counter the spy/lookout combo.
Supertcgamer wrote:Both RM claims TP, there can't be 6 TP.
Lookouts can only see up to 3 visits. It's pretty unlikely that in that scenario both mafia members would be seen by the lookout. Even then, they can just claim spy, or coordinate votes with other mafia to push the actual TPs. In fact, it's even possible for one of the mafia members to claim lookout and say he saw the other mafia and the spy claims visiting the jailor.
Supertcgamer wrote:Yes there is chaos but Mafia will have to be very selective on who is killed not to confirm TP/RT. And be quick about it with killing and who gets msynched. This gives jailor and town plenty of time to weed out the liars. As well not to foget Gf and mafioso having tight claim space with one TI a tk and TS. So them being ccd is also possible in this time frame. This is a high end stack against mafia. (And spy being ingame as the other TI makes this 1000% worse for mafia.
You are underestimating the amount of chaos that 6 tp claims would create. In that situation, it's very easy to make jailor execute a tp, making him not as much of a threat. If MK claim TI they will be more trusted than the TPs, and they might be able to swing jailor's opinion in their favor. After that, if evils are smart and vote together town won't be able to do much against them. Also, you implied that misslynching townies gives town more time, but it's actually the opposite. The less their numbers, the less decisions they can make. In a game where several TPs are pushing each other, voting the same person might be hard. If it's necessary, mafia might have to resort to
tunneling. But having multiple TPs isn't related to the jailor meta. No matter what mafia claims, killing townies will be hard.
Supertcgamer wrote:Game B is similar to game A but instead of both RMs claim tp, the other claims spy, the other TI slot but this will just come down for a 1 f 1. As one of the TI slots has a confirmed LO, the fake spy claim versus any other TI claim that isn't a second LO will become a mslynch or a good lynch on maf.
That will hapen if mafia isn't good at causing chaos. The point is making the chat a mess so everyone throws accusations everywhere and no one knows who to vote. Besides, it wouldn't be a 1 for 1. Not all TPs would be confirmed. People might suspect them as arso, or as RM. And the lookout won't see all of their visits. Besides, you are underestimating the importance of a misslynch. One single misslynch can give evils mayority, especially since town will barely have any TKs or TSs to turn the game around in the scenario.
Supertcgamer wrote:Game C We'll cut RT Tp down to none. So that means 3 RTs are open for anything atm. If both RMs visit jailor , LO sees real tp and the RMs. This leaves a high possibility for spy with one TI slot open and 3 RTS. Maf is eventually gonna lose 2 mafia starting day 2 or day 3. Then it's up to gf and mafioso to take out LO then jailor, and they'll need NE and NK to play their cards right to stand a chance at winning.
Yeah, that would be pretty unlucky. It would be safer is mafia only sent 1 RM n1 while the other stayed home or visited someone else. Even then, keep in mind that spies, lookouts, tp, arsos and mafia are many visits on the jailor. Only 1 townie visiting would be rare, and would allow mafia to lynch other TPs/lo/spies/escorts who didn't visit jailor n1.
Supertcgamer wrote:I can continue but I'm not. Mafia visiting jailor to look like tp or spy or escort puts maf at risk incase of spy or simple mathematics. You can only have a max of 4 TP if all Rts are tp. You can only have a max of 5 TI and if both RMS claim spy they'll look sus for these reasons, having multiple spies is sus and there may be other TI claims that are actual TIs ccing the spies that visited jailor, especially when a legit spy is in game saying jailor was visited by maf. Mafia is at a disadvantage and must take very risky actions at the beginning of the game.
If consort visits jailor and again there is a spy, they know there is a consort even without a LO. Spy and LO are not the problems, it's mr. Macho jailor who can reveal by claiming jailor like how mayor can reveal. It's just jailor can still whisper and be protected by both bg and doc.
Yeah, that's why jailor meta is a thing. But I don't think it's that unfair to evils. They are more challenging roles, which is fine because they are less players. Ideally, mafia should coordinate so they don't cc each other, especially if they both plan to visit the jailor. Visiting him may be risky, but not visiting is riskier.
And if there are 5 spies or 4 tp, pushing misslynches will be very easy because those roles are very hard to prove.
The problem is definitely not the jailor. Anyone can ask for tp lo day 1. A transporter, and escort, a mayor, a jailor and even a sheriff can pull it off. As long as there are lookouts and spies, visiting will be worthy. Personally I don't think mayors should get those nerfs after revealing, but that's a subject of another thread.