cob709 wrote:In a situation where Town is incapable of winning, and Vampires have the chance to win on that day. Are the vampires allowed to choose to NOT lynch the townie, and wait until night time in order to convert them?
For example:
2 vampires
1 escort
1 transport
1 Godfather
everyone works together to lynch the godfather
next night, the transporter is converted(now it is 3 vampires, 1 escort)
are the vampires allowed to wait a few nights to convert the escort?
also, does the escort have to block the youngest vampire?
cob709 wrote:snip
cob709 wrote:The Godfather was AFK.
TheFluffyWaffleV2 wrote:I wouldn't consider it to be throwing in any of these situations. Sure, it may "go against the rules" if you wanna dive so far deep into it that you need a thread with 4 paragraphs explaining if it was gamethrowing or not, but I, if I were a judge, wouldn't consider it throwing. Even if they didn't win, there is no need to pull out a whole ass rule book to determine if was gamethrowing. If you can't, straight up, see that they were 100% purposefully attempting to make their own faction / themself lose, then there isn't a need to make it a bigger deal than it is.
TheFluffyWaffleV2 wrote:In Wozearly’s situation, assuming the Town has played atleast 1 game, there should be little chance that a situation for gamethrowing could occur. While it is impossible to assume a players skill level, if either the Vampire OR Godfather get lynched, Town should win 100% of the time, as the Escort should RB the non-lynched evil and the Transporter should stay home. However, if the Vamp/GF doesn’t vote with the Town, then the next night will be a bloody mess to see who wins. It may be a draw. I don’t know. There are too many possibilities, and many of them aren’t gamethrowing.
But, by what logic, does lynching the Godfather create a 50% for Town to draw? If the Escort roleblocks the Vampire, they will lynch them the next day. If he doesn’t, either by the Transporter messing him up or him choosing not to (him choosing not to so he could get bit would be throwing, assuming the Transporter is confirmed, which they usually are), and the Vampire bites someone, then the one not bit would simply beg to be bitten. Then, at that point, there is no gamethrowing, as Vamp majority triumps gamethrowing rules for Town.
wozearly wrote:TheFluffyWaffleV2 wrote:In Wozearly’s situation, assuming the Town has played atleast 1 game, there should be little chance that a situation for gamethrowing could occur. While it is impossible to assume a players skill level, if either the Vampire OR Godfather get lynched, Town should win 100% of the time, as the Escort should RB the non-lynched evil and the Transporter should stay home. However, if the Vamp/GF doesn’t vote with the Town, then the next night will be a bloody mess to see who wins. It may be a draw. I don’t know. There are too many possibilities, and many of them aren’t gamethrowing.
But, by what logic, does lynching the Godfather create a 50% for Town to draw? If the Escort roleblocks the Vampire, they will lynch them the next day. If he doesn’t, either by the Transporter messing him up or him choosing not to (him choosing not to so he could get bit would be throwing, assuming the Transporter is confirmed, which they usually are), and the Vampire bites someone, then the one not bit would simply beg to be bitten. Then, at that point, there is no gamethrowing, as Vamp majority triumps gamethrowing rules for Town.
There's no situation where Town can win 100% of the time.
Town's best shot is the 50% win chance by lynching one of the vampires, roleblocking the other and playing chicken with the Godfather as to whether the Trans switched the last Vampire and Escort or not. The setup is vampire, escort, trans, GF, so Town have to lock down one killer (the vamp) while giving the GF the incentive (a Mafia win) to attack rather than sit it out for a draw.
If Town lynch the GF, they're in a 2v2 situation with the Vampires in which Town cannot possibly win as vamps can't be made to kill each other. The best they can hope for is a draw - 56% chance if they have to block the vamps 2 nights running (I rounded down before for simplicity), or 75% if the vamps have to wait a night to attack again. In practice, in this situation, you'd empathise with the Escort and Trans deciding to join the Vampires for a win instead. If you're wondering why it's 56/75, that's because the Escort has a flat 50% chance of roleblocking the Youngest, and the Trans then has a further 50% chance to block the attack if the vamps aren't roleblocked. So Town has a 75% chance of blocking the Vamps each night - the chances of doing that twice running are 75% * 75% (56%).
If the GF doesn't side with the Town to vote up one of the vampires they're probably an idiot, as that's the best route to a possible Mafia win. However, in the event that no-one is voted up the odds overwhelmingly tilt in favour of a vampire win; it's difficult to categorically pin down every possible outcome, but it's not actually all that messy as there are only so many moves a GF trying to win would be willing to attempt and the vamps have a high chance of being locked down.
Basically the vamps do well because they only need to be lucky once, where Town and the GF need a very specific outcome in order to bring them back to the same situation as if they'd just lynched the 2nd vampire in the first place. While there are potential paths to a draw if that doesn't happen, most outcomes in practice lead to Town losing the ability to win and siding with the vamps against the GF for a 100% chance of a vampire win if the Escort is still in play or a 50% chance if the Trans is.
Assuming people made good moves and play to win then running through the odds for the most likely paths it came out looking something like 59% Vampire win, 16% Draw 12.5% Town win, 12.5% Mafia win.
TheFluffyWaffleV2 wrote:Oh shit, I'm sorry. I was looking at your example of 1 vamp, 1 esc, 1 trans, and 1 GF as if that's what it looked like at the start of a day, not after a lynch.
Props to you for going through all of that math. I don't see anything wrong with it. Of course percentage goes out the drain in a true game with reads and manipulation, but it is impressive regardless.
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