Vampires sparing the Town

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Vampires sparing the Town

Postby cob709 » Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:25 am

In a situation where Town is incapable of winning, and Vampires have the chance to win on that day. Are the vampires allowed to choose to NOT lynch the townie, and wait until night time in order to convert them?

For example:
2 vampires
1 escort
1 transport
1 Godfather

everyone works together to lynch the godfather
next night, the transporter is converted(now it is 3 vampires, 1 escort)
are the vampires allowed to wait a few nights to convert the escort?

also, does the escort have to block the youngest vampire?
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby kyuss420 » Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:19 am

at the point of 2 vamps and 2 townies, the escort does have to try to RB the youngest vamp, and push for a draw because they should be trying to not lose as town (a draw isnt a loss).

At the point of 3 vamps and 1 town, town has already lost, so escort does not have to try and RB the trans turned youngest vamp. Vamps may choose to convert instead of lynch if they desire.
Unless the system message ''if no one dies tonight the game will end in a draw'' has shown, because then escort should be RBing the known youngest vamp

best play in the 2v2 scenario, escort RB 1 of the vamps, (preferably the last one to stop posting his will) and trans transports himself with the other, which could be communicated via whispers
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby CrowFoxy2 » Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:15 pm

I believe they are allowed to wait and convert the escort.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby wozearly » Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:58 pm

cob709 wrote:In a situation where Town is incapable of winning, and Vampires have the chance to win on that day. Are the vampires allowed to choose to NOT lynch the townie, and wait until night time in order to convert them?

For example:
2 vampires
1 escort
1 transport
1 Godfather

everyone works together to lynch the godfather
next night, the transporter is converted(now it is 3 vampires, 1 escort)
are the vampires allowed to wait a few nights to convert the escort?

also, does the escort have to block the youngest vampire?


Town hasn't lost in your example. They should align with the Godfather to lynch one of the vampires to prevent an immediate Vampire win, then use Escort to shut down the last vampire:

1 vampire (roleblocked)
1 escort
1 transporter
1 godfather

Switching to the Mafia perspective, to win the Godfather needs to eliminate the Escort that night. In the three-way standoff that follows, Town has lost as the stalemate detector would kick in if the Transporter is left alone with either the Vampire or GF. Having no route to win as Town at this stage, the Transporter may then elect to win with the vampires*, in which case they need to be converted. Escort could just roleblock the GF to do that, which is why they have to die. On the other hand, Transporter is vulnerable as they cannot protect both themselves and the vampire from the GF. If the GF kills either, it becomes a Mafia win. Therefore the Trans has to predict whether the GF will target the Escort or Vampire and redirect the GF to attack himself instead. It turns into a 50/50 chance as to whether it ends in a Mafia or Vampire win.

Coming back to the Town, having established the above is Mafia's only option to win, the Transporter knows that the Godfather needs to kill the Escort after Maf/Town unite to lynch the 2nd vampire. The Transporter can disrupt this by trying to redirect the GF's attack from the Escort to the Vampire. If the Transporter is successful, Town regains majority and can lynch the GF the following day for a Town win. As a result, the Trans and GF end up in a stand-off where Trans might either switch the Escort with the Vampire or not, and the GF has to second guess which one to target.

Basically, doing the above forces the GF to have to roll the dice against the Transporter twice to win. First to determine if Town win or lose, then a second time to determine if Mafia or the Vampires win. Town and Mafia have every incentive to go along with this, as it's the only route for either to outright win. Town actually comes out of this best, with a 50% chance to win versus 25% for Mafia and 25% for Vampires. The only faction opposed to this would be the vampires, as pretty much any other path leads to a vampire win, but as they don't hold voting majority they can't stop Town and Maf temporarily allying to cause it.

Weirdly enough, if Town in this situation allied with the vampires it would actually be gamethrowing.


*As Transporter can no longer win as Town with the Escort dead, technically they could act as kingmaker for either faction by voting up the other. But I suspect the overwhelming majority of players would go for the vampire win.
Last edited by wozearly on Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby wozearly » Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:25 pm

cob709 wrote:snip


In answer to the question you were actually asking, (ie, lets assume we have 2 Mediums rather than Esc/Trans) then Town has lost. At that point, it's fine for vampires to persuade the individual Town members to lynch the GF and win with them. In fact, they kinda need that to happen to stop the GF winning by murderous attrition.

Once the GF is lynched, and its 3 vamps - 1 town, the vampires are absolutely allowed to wait another 2 nights to convert the last town member. If they have 2 Town members to convert, and don't have enough space to convert the last Town member, they'd be able to lynch one of their own to create the '5th' space. The Vamps have control, and none of those actions would prevent them from winning. Similarly, once they've reached 3 vamps : 1 town, they're not actually obliged to convert the final Town member and could just lynch them instead. But that would be a bit of a dickish thing to do.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby cob709 » Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:26 pm

The Godfather was AFK.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby wozearly » Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:54 pm

cob709 wrote:The Godfather was AFK.


If he was definitely AFK, rather than tactically faking AFK, then fair enough - Town was in an unwinnable position. :?
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby TheFluffyWaffleV2 » Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:29 pm

I wouldn't consider it to be throwing in any of these situations. Sure, it may "go against the rules" if you wanna dive so far deep into it that you need a thread with 4 paragraphs explaining if it was gamethrowing or not, but I, if I were a judge, wouldn't consider it throwing. Even if they didn't win, there is no need to pull out a whole ass rule book to determine if was gamethrowing. If you can't, straight up, see that they were 100% purposefully attempting to make their own faction / themself lose, then there isn't a need to make it a bigger deal than it is.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby wozearly » Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:00 am

TheFluffyWaffleV2 wrote:I wouldn't consider it to be throwing in any of these situations. Sure, it may "go against the rules" if you wanna dive so far deep into it that you need a thread with 4 paragraphs explaining if it was gamethrowing or not, but I, if I were a judge, wouldn't consider it throwing. Even if they didn't win, there is no need to pull out a whole ass rule book to determine if was gamethrowing. If you can't, straight up, see that they were 100% purposefully attempting to make their own faction / themself lose, then there isn't a need to make it a bigger deal than it is.


I think you might have slightly misinterpreted what I was saying.

My point was that the example was flawed. The OP stated the question was about a situation where Town is incapable of winning, but ironically gave an example where Town has a 50% chance to win. I gave a more detailed explanation of why because the OP had missed it, not on some grand rant to justify it as technically gamethrowing. The gamethrowing point was intended as an amusing aside, but if you're going to get on your high horse about it:

Town can attempt to lynch a vampire for a 50% chance to win or lynch the Godfather for a 50% chance to draw. They are not out of the game.

That's why a dead Town player could reasonably report the Esc/Trans for gamethrowing for siding the the vampires at this point, in two sentences.

I wouldn't personally uphold it if I was judging unless the Esc/Trans had been working with the vamps before this point, because I don't believe players should be punished for making genuine mistakes, and I can see why the Esc/Trans might have wrongly concluded Town couldn't win. I also think it's reasonable to give a bit of leeway to players acting as players and not factions when it comes to the vampires.

Since you brought actual judging into the mix, if I was judging on this I wouldn't uphold a gamethrowing report unless the escort or transporter had clearly worked out a Town win was possible but deliberately decided to take the win with the vamps, or if they'd been working with the vamps before that point.

At a glance, it would be reasonable for an average ToS player to conclude that Town can't win. Even though they would be completely wrong.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby kyuss420 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:21 am

wozearly is right indeed.

But its ToS and the average player doesnt have the IQ to count 4 roles (that are dead in the graveyard), let alone realise there is a chance for 2 TS roles to win in a 2v2v1 situation..... dont you just randomly click your favourite name at night and hope to get lucky?
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby TheFluffyWaffleV2 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:39 am

In Wozearly’s situation, assuming the Town has played atleast 1 game, there should be little chance that a situation for gamethrowing could occur. While it is impossible to assume a players skill level, if either the Vampire OR Godfather get lynched, Town should win 100% of the time, as the Escort should RB the non-lynched evil and the Transporter should stay home. However, if the Vamp/GF doesn’t vote with the Town, then the next night will be a bloody mess to see who wins. It may be a draw. I don’t know. There are too many possibilities, and many of them aren’t gamethrowing.

But, by what logic, does lynching the Godfather create a 50% for Town to draw? If the Escort roleblocks the Vampire, they will lynch them the next day. If he doesn’t, either by the Transporter messing him up or him choosing not to (him choosing not to so he could get bit would be throwing, assuming the Transporter is confirmed, which they usually are), and the Vampire bites someone, then the one not bit would simply beg to be bitten. Then, at that point, there is no gamethrowing, as Vamp majority triumps gamethrowing rules for Town.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby PatrykSzczescie » Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:52 am

There should be an automatic Vampire win when Vampire outnumber everyone else and there are no killing roles.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby wozearly » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:02 pm

TheFluffyWaffleV2 wrote:In Wozearly’s situation, assuming the Town has played atleast 1 game, there should be little chance that a situation for gamethrowing could occur. While it is impossible to assume a players skill level, if either the Vampire OR Godfather get lynched, Town should win 100% of the time, as the Escort should RB the non-lynched evil and the Transporter should stay home. However, if the Vamp/GF doesn’t vote with the Town, then the next night will be a bloody mess to see who wins. It may be a draw. I don’t know. There are too many possibilities, and many of them aren’t gamethrowing.

But, by what logic, does lynching the Godfather create a 50% for Town to draw? If the Escort roleblocks the Vampire, they will lynch them the next day. If he doesn’t, either by the Transporter messing him up or him choosing not to (him choosing not to so he could get bit would be throwing, assuming the Transporter is confirmed, which they usually are), and the Vampire bites someone, then the one not bit would simply beg to be bitten. Then, at that point, there is no gamethrowing, as Vamp majority triumps gamethrowing rules for Town.


There's no situation where Town can win 100% of the time.

Town's best shot is the 50% win chance by lynching one of the vampires, roleblocking the other and playing chicken with the Godfather as to whether the Trans switched the last Vampire and Escort or not. The setup is vampire, escort, trans, GF, so Town have to lock down one killer (the vamp) while giving the GF the incentive (a Mafia win) to attack rather than sit it out for a draw.

If Town lynch the GF, they're in a 2v2 situation with the Vampires in which Town cannot possibly win as vamps can't be made to kill each other. The best they can hope for is a draw - 56% chance if they have to block the vamps 2 nights running (I rounded down before for simplicity), or 75% if the vamps have to wait a night to attack again. In practice, in this situation, you'd empathise with the Escort and Trans deciding to join the Vampires for a win instead. If you're wondering why it's 56/75, that's because the Escort has a flat 50% chance of roleblocking the Youngest, and the Trans then has a further 50% chance to block the attack if the vamps aren't roleblocked. So Town has a 75% chance of blocking the Vamps each night - the chances of doing that twice running are 75% * 75% (56%).

If the GF doesn't side with the Town to vote up one of the vampires they're probably an idiot, as that's the best route to a possible Mafia win. However, in the event that no-one is voted up the odds overwhelmingly tilt in favour of a vampire win; it's difficult to categorically pin down every possible outcome, but it's not actually all that messy as there are only so many moves a GF trying to win would be willing to attempt and the vamps have a high chance of being locked down.

Basically the vamps do well because they only need to be lucky once, where Town and the GF need a very specific outcome in order to bring them back to the same situation as if they'd just lynched the 2nd vampire in the first place. While there are potential paths to a draw if that doesn't happen, most outcomes in practice lead to Town losing the ability to win and siding with the vamps against the GF for a 100% chance of a vampire win if the Escort is still in play or a 50% chance if the Trans is.

Assuming people made good moves and play to win then running through the odds for the most likely paths it came out looking something like 59% Vampire win, 16% Draw 12.5% Town win, 12.5% Mafia win.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby TheFluffyWaffleV2 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:42 pm

wozearly wrote:
TheFluffyWaffleV2 wrote:In Wozearly’s situation, assuming the Town has played atleast 1 game, there should be little chance that a situation for gamethrowing could occur. While it is impossible to assume a players skill level, if either the Vampire OR Godfather get lynched, Town should win 100% of the time, as the Escort should RB the non-lynched evil and the Transporter should stay home. However, if the Vamp/GF doesn’t vote with the Town, then the next night will be a bloody mess to see who wins. It may be a draw. I don’t know. There are too many possibilities, and many of them aren’t gamethrowing.

But, by what logic, does lynching the Godfather create a 50% for Town to draw? If the Escort roleblocks the Vampire, they will lynch them the next day. If he doesn’t, either by the Transporter messing him up or him choosing not to (him choosing not to so he could get bit would be throwing, assuming the Transporter is confirmed, which they usually are), and the Vampire bites someone, then the one not bit would simply beg to be bitten. Then, at that point, there is no gamethrowing, as Vamp majority triumps gamethrowing rules for Town.


There's no situation where Town can win 100% of the time.

Town's best shot is the 50% win chance by lynching one of the vampires, roleblocking the other and playing chicken with the Godfather as to whether the Trans switched the last Vampire and Escort or not. The setup is vampire, escort, trans, GF, so Town have to lock down one killer (the vamp) while giving the GF the incentive (a Mafia win) to attack rather than sit it out for a draw.

If Town lynch the GF, they're in a 2v2 situation with the Vampires in which Town cannot possibly win as vamps can't be made to kill each other. The best they can hope for is a draw - 56% chance if they have to block the vamps 2 nights running (I rounded down before for simplicity), or 75% if the vamps have to wait a night to attack again. In practice, in this situation, you'd empathise with the Escort and Trans deciding to join the Vampires for a win instead. If you're wondering why it's 56/75, that's because the Escort has a flat 50% chance of roleblocking the Youngest, and the Trans then has a further 50% chance to block the attack if the vamps aren't roleblocked. So Town has a 75% chance of blocking the Vamps each night - the chances of doing that twice running are 75% * 75% (56%).

If the GF doesn't side with the Town to vote up one of the vampires they're probably an idiot, as that's the best route to a possible Mafia win. However, in the event that no-one is voted up the odds overwhelmingly tilt in favour of a vampire win; it's difficult to categorically pin down every possible outcome, but it's not actually all that messy as there are only so many moves a GF trying to win would be willing to attempt and the vamps have a high chance of being locked down.

Basically the vamps do well because they only need to be lucky once, where Town and the GF need a very specific outcome in order to bring them back to the same situation as if they'd just lynched the 2nd vampire in the first place. While there are potential paths to a draw if that doesn't happen, most outcomes in practice lead to Town losing the ability to win and siding with the vamps against the GF for a 100% chance of a vampire win if the Escort is still in play or a 50% chance if the Trans is.

Assuming people made good moves and play to win then running through the odds for the most likely paths it came out looking something like 59% Vampire win, 16% Draw 12.5% Town win, 12.5% Mafia win.

Oh shit, I'm sorry. I was looking at your example of 1 vamp, 1 esc, 1 trans, and 1 GF as if that's what it looked like at the start of a day, not after a lynch.

Props to you for going through all of that math. I don't see anything wrong with it. Of course percentage goes out the drain in a true game with reads and manipulation, but it is impressive regardless.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby cob709 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:44 pm

Town could not lynch vampires because they did not have majority. Additionally, the Godfather was AFK.
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Re: Vampires sparing the Town

Postby wozearly » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:39 am

TheFluffyWaffleV2 wrote:Oh shit, I'm sorry. I was looking at your example of 1 vamp, 1 esc, 1 trans, and 1 GF as if that's what it looked like at the start of a day, not after a lynch.

Props to you for going through all of that math. I don't see anything wrong with it. Of course percentage goes out the drain in a true game with reads and manipulation, but it is impressive regardless.


No worries.

I also agree that the percentages aren't perfect. There's several assumptions around mutual second-guessing and perfect co-ordination between the Escort and Transporter, and that people would rather take a YOLO risk for the chance of a win rather than play it safe and prioritise a draw over a loss. In practice, some possible Town/Mafia wins would more likely end as draws because the Trans or the GF would take the safe option, and it's pretty likely the Town members would in practice ally with the Vampires sooner to ensure they both win rather than roll the dice on the chance of a Town win.
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