Ansem555 wrote:I really don't understand why we're still going with this, Devs, Admins and Mods have already said there is no gray area and Town can't go out of their way to become Vampires because that's game throwing against the other Town players. Arguing the "logic" will get nobody anywhere fast, change nothing, and you will be reported for it. Easy to follow.
Obviously you have never read my post so I'll paraphrase it for you. I'll post both situations again for the sake of it.
Also please read through the entire post. Don't skim it! This is really important if you actually want to point a flaw in my theory.Emilie9263 wrote:Hi!
Something just happened in a game. I reported it and I wonder if I was right. To me it was obvious gamethrowing, but some of the players believed it was not so...
There was 3 players left. 2 townies and a vampire. Who was who was perfectly known by all. Both of the townies decided to let the vampire bite them instead of lynching him. They said it was alright and they could all win this way. But it's not! I mean the townies played better than the vamp since they ended 2 against 1. I was a town member, I was a bg and I killed the mafioso. Did I not deserve the win like town? I was so mad! It's like when town let mafia win.
According to the OP, this was the current role-list (assuming of course the townies can't interfere in any way with the Vampire's conversions).
Townie
Townie
VampireNow, there are four ways this can turn out, and I'll quote myself on it:
testaccount1234 wrote:Outcomes:
1. Townie 1 wants to win with Town, Townie 2 wants to win with Town = Vampire gets lynched, town wins.
2. Townie 1 wants to win with Town, Townie 2 wants to win with Vampire = Townie 1 gets lynched, Townie 2 & Vampire wins.
3. Townie 1 wants to win with Vampire, Townie 2 wants to win with Town = Townie 2 gets lynched, Townie 1 & Vampires wins.
4. Townie 1 wants to win with Vampire, Townie 2 wants to win with Vampire = No-one gets lynched, Both townies & Vampire wins.
However, in my previous post I forgot to account for the percentage of the fourth outcome going either way. One leads to both townies getting converted while another leads to the Vampires being impatient and just lynching the non-converted townie. For the sake of argument, let's say that each of those outcomes have a 50/50 chance of occurring. Now let's look at the odds again.
Outcome 1: Townie 1 wins, Townie 2 wins, Vampire loses (25%)
Outcome 2: Townie 1 loses, Townie 2 wins, Vampire wins (25%)
Outcome 3: Townie 1 wins, Townie 2 loses, Vampire wins (25%)
Outcome 4.1: Townie 1 wins, Townie 2 wins, Vampire wins (12.5%)
Outcome 4.2: Un-converted Townie wins, Converted Townie wins, Vampire wins (12.5%)
Now there's a 62.5% chance of winning with the Vampires & 37.5% of winning win the Town in total. However, if you are one of the townies (let's say Townie 1) and you don't want to win with the Vampires, here are the odds of winning:
Outcome 1: Other townie betrays you, you lose (50%)
Outcome 2: Other townie helps you, you win (50%)
Basically, you have a 50% chance of winning while a 50% chance of losing. However, if you want to side with the Vampire...
Outcome 2: Other townie wants to win with town, you win (50%)
Outcome 4: Other townie wants to win with Vampire, you might win (50%) = (possible scenarios inside: 8.25% + 8.25% + 8.25% + 8.25%)
Outcome 4 can get more explored deeply. Now the Vampire can either bite you or the other townie. Of course the Vampire will likely bit the person who whispered to them first but let's assume the Vampire goes for RNG.
Outcome 4A: You get bit, Vampires are patient, you win (25%)
Outcome 4B: You get bit, Vampires are impatient, you win (25%)
Outcome 4C: Other townie gets bit, Vampires are patient, you win (25%)
Outcome 4D: Other townie gets bit, Vampires are impatient, you lose (25%)
Since Outcomes A-D are from Outcome 4 which have a 50% chance to occur, each of those outcomes inside have a 8.25% of occuring. Which means if you are willing to side with the Vampire, there will be a 91.75% of you winning in this scenario.
With the recent Vampire role able to change win conditions, the calculations clearly show it's more beneficial to side with Vampires than with the Town.
However, you say this:Ansem555 wrote:Devs, Admins and Mods have already said there is no gray area and Town can't go out of their way to become Vampires because that's game throwing against the other Town players.
Now, here's a hypothetical situation that you ignored that has a gray area.
testaccount1234 wrote:Hypothetical Situation 2
There's two investigators, a medium, a revealed Mayor & two vamps. You are the revealed Mayor. Everyone knows who is who and the Vampires are just minutes away from losing. However, at the beginning of the day, one of the vampires publicly announces that they're going to bite you if you lynch one of them. What do you do? Do you essentially 'gamethrow' and vote for one of your own or turn into a Vamp and lose because of it?
Okay, I'll give you a helping hand on this one. Here's the role-list that everyone knows now.
Investigator
Investigator
Medium
Mayor
Vampire
VampireAt the start of the day, one of the Vampires publicly says that they're going to bite the Mayor if the Mayor doesn't side with them.
Now why would the Vampires do that. Why not bite an investigator or a medium? Because once one of the Vampires is lynched, it will only take one Mayor vote to put someone on stand and one Mayor vote to lynch them. However, why not just bite the Mayor in secret? Because then every townie will know that the Mayor turned Vampire because he lost his three votes.
So it looks like the only option for Vampires is to accept a loss. I mean, it seems like they already lost. Everyone already knows who they are. However, one of the Vampires have just figured out a way to make sure that the Vampires secure victory. They're essentially
taking the Mayor down with them if they are lynched.
Now as the Mayor, what would you do? Should you gamethrow and lynch one of your townies in order to win for yourself? Or will you let the vampires bite you and essentially securing yourself for a loss?