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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:11 pm
by Eragon1329
so, the quick and dirty reason for why a lynch is better on D1 - the lynch is town's only weapon to remove scum from the game, and forfeiting it on D1 means we only get a maximum of two mislynches instead of three (assuming no failed night kill shenanigans). And even if we wind up playing poorly by lynching town every day and scum successfully kill every day, odds are actually better for town on subsequent days if we lynch on D1, because there are fewer people remaining.

IF NO LYNCH ON D1
Odds of lynching scum on D2 = 3/12 (25%)
Odds of lynching scum on D3 = 3/10 (30%)

IF LYNCH ON D1
Odds of lynching scum on D2 = 3/11 (27.7%)
Odds of lynching scum on D3 = 3/9 (33.3%)

Further, the information gained from a lynch on D1 is useful, even if the lynch is on town. You can see who argued for or against the lynch, and whether their reasoning looks genuine or contrived in hindsight knowing the alignment of the lynched player. Plus, if we decided to no lynch, then there's no pressure on anyone and nothing to talk about. Threatening to lynch someone is good, it puts pressure on them to find scum and it puts pressure on everyone else to support or fight the wagon. and as the game goes on, you can come back and reread this discussion with clearer hindsight knowing the alignment of certain players - and I highly recommend everyone do this, reread D1 multiple times as the game goes on. it's very useful to look for associations and how players engaged with dead-confirmed-town-players as well as scum if one of them gets flipped.

in terms of the outcome of the lynch, D1 is usually a crapshoot and hits town more often than not because of sheer probability and because it's the easiest day for scum to wagon whoever they please and control the narrative a bit. But this isn't a big loss, and the information gained from all the discussion is usually far more useful than the potential for night action results.

shamelessly stolen and edited from someone on MS

Added stuff:
in a bigger game like this, its not as big of a difference, but you can see even by numbers there is a slight difference in percentages, but disregarding that the information that we gain from it also helps in the long run, giving us a better than RNG chance of lynching scum

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:13 pm
by Eragon1329
Phone0Ix wrote:What I'm trying to say is. Why would I, as scum, go so long on with the Mario read? Era catching the first post, okay. But later on I claimed Framer etc. even after Mario was saying vote was serious



becuase its Mario?

and actually you claimed framer before Mario said his vote was serious

you were like
"lets get serious... I claim framer + everyone day chat = everyone"

and Mario was look

"ah bull my vote was serious"

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:13 pm
by Varanus
Votes should be bolded and on their own line to make it easier for the other players to see that you have voted. I'll count the two on the last page, but won't in the future.

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:14 pm
by Eragon1329
Phone0Ix wrote:
TheDebil wrote:
Phone0Ix wrote:What I'm trying to say is. Why would I, as scum, go so long on with the Mario read? Era catching the first post, okay. But later on I claimed Framer etc. even after Mario was saying vote was serious

why did you do it in the first place?

Get reactions.

You following without another post about it gave you a scum lean


for the last time people.

claiming scum is not a good way to get reactions

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:14 pm
by Eragon1329
0verki11 wrote:
Phone0Ix wrote:Why am I scum if Mario is town lol

holy shit this post is scummy.


whats so scummy about this that made you go

"holy shit this post is scummy"

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:16 pm
by Eragon1329
is it weird I think Bodhrak's self-suspicion is towny?

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:17 pm
by Eragon1329
JuvenileFourtyTwo wrote:I have an idea, let's not lynch anyone today off of jokes/accusations from words in a nfm. Maybe if it was a pro fm, words would work better for that, but let's wait for something to happen overnight


I expressed this recently so not going back into it

but this game is literally lynching people based off of accusations

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:20 pm
by Eragon1329
rightodude wrote:
0verki11 wrote:
rightodude wrote:Hey, I had problems with admins needing to review my posts but I got it fixed now. sorry about all the delay for posting. I'm UTC+13 btw.

hey, what do you think of whats been going on in the thread?


personally I think phone is ultra sketchy, mario is just confusing but you all seem to think that chemist is scum so I might agree just based off of that entirely




JuvenileFourtyTwo wrote:
MoustachioMario wrote:@phone

I think you should defend yourself more

Also, Ph0ne was, but everyone knocked them down as scum instantly, so there's no reason for them, which is why I'm trying to get us all to wait and see who dies overnight, because that could give us better info on who is more likely to be scum than just "ur meme post felt forced so ur scum"


boi we got 5 days to work out a Lynch
its going to be based on more than memes

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:21 pm
by Eragon1329
Tiltedcomedian wrote:
JuvenileFourtyTwo wrote:How much of that was a meme and how much of it wasn't...


yes

with 3 you get egg roll



Tilted spoil your damn walls you evil penguin

*pets*

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:21 pm
by Eragon1329
Chemist1422 wrote:
JuvenileFourtyTwo wrote:And I thought the meme phase was over... I was wrong

The ride's just getting started.



damn right

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:11 am
by JuvenileFourtyTwo
Going to sleep so if I'm inactive you know why.

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:14 am
by Eragon1329
JuvenileFourtyTwo wrote:Going to sleep so if I'm inactive you know why.


We all gotta sleep sometime, it’s no deal

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:15 am
by Eragon1329
Tiltedcomedian wrote:/vote Mario


Why do you think Mario is scum?

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:25 am
by Eragon1329
JuvenileFourtyTwo wrote:
0verki11 wrote:I cant tell if Juvaniles no lynch talk comes fron noobtown or scum tbh.
Still want to lynch Julian (no more votes currently, they are at L2)
For some reason when I logged out on my pc I cant log back in so mobile posts only for now.

I don't want to lynch someone on day 1 because we don't have any physical evidence yet.
You're more likely to kill a town than a scum by lynching someone over words on day 1


This is a fair reperesentation(somehow I really nuked this word)

Ngl, we are more likely to lynch town than scum. Based on RNG.

Reads, however, are slightly better than RNG, so our chances of hitting scum goes up.

If we lynch scum d1, it’s not quite guaranteed but our chances of winning skyrocket

If we lynch town D1, look st the last NFM, we swept the next 2 scum and lost in F3 to a green-checked mafioso-turned-Godfather

One town lynch day 1 isn’t the end of the world, it
1) helps reduce Poe(shit reason for lynching someone if it’s the only reason though)
2) keeps the numbers odd(so it’s LyLo instead of MyLo)
3)gives extra information
4) has a chance to flip scum
5) for anyone that is heavily scumreading the person, it can get them to extremely change their outlook on the game

+ the possiblity of a juicy red flip

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:26 am
by Eragon1329
JuvenileFourtyTwo wrote:
0verki11 wrote:
JuvenileFourtyTwo wrote:
0verki11 wrote:I cant tell if Juvaniles no lynch talk comes fron noobtown or scum tbh.
Still want to lynch Julian (no more votes currently, they are at L2)
For some reason when I logged out on my pc I cant log back in so mobile posts only for now.

I don't want to lynch someone on day 1 because we don't have any physical evidence yet.
You're more likely to kill a town than a scum by lynching someone over words on day 1

Maybe, but thats not a bad thing imo. We gain info from a lynch that we wouldnt gain without it.

Yes, but as i said before, we have a potential to lose a town, a town that could help us win against the scum


I agree, that’s what it feels like in theory, but in practice it’s actually better to lynch a town d1 then no-Lynch.

I felt the same way when I started, and was just as stubborn, but I grew to realize that it is the right play to always lynch d1 given the opportunity

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:27 am
by 0verki11
Eragon1329 wrote:
0verki11 wrote:
Phone0Ix wrote:Why am I scum if Mario is town lol

holy shit this post is scummy.


whats so scummy about this that made you go

"holy shit this post is scummy"

forgot the proper term for it, but its shade and trying to make someone else appear scum/yourself not so. Does spew Mario town on a Phone flip

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:29 am
by Eragon1329
0verki11 wrote:
Eragon1329 wrote:
0verki11 wrote:
Phone0Ix wrote:Why am I scum if Mario is town lol

holy shit this post is scummy.


whats so scummy about this that made you go

"holy shit this post is scummy"

forgot the proper term for it, but its shade and trying to make someone else appear scum/yourself not so. Does spew Mario town on a Phone flip


Deflection?

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:30 am
by Eragon1329
Anyways I don’t see how that shades Mario in any way, and IMO it doesn’t make Mario appear scummy either

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:40 am
by 0verki11
Eragon1329 wrote:Anyways I don’t see how that shades Mario in any way, and IMO it doesn’t make Mario appear scummy either

its borderline shade and it pretty much lock clears Mario on a Phone scum flip.

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:00 am
by Phone0Ix
Mario voted after the Arso claim?

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:01 am
by Eragon1329
Phone0Ix wrote:Mario voted after the Arso claim?


That is what happened, yes.

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:03 am
by Eragon1329
It’s literally this

>phone claimed arso

>Mario votes

>a back and forth about arso nonsense

> Ph0ne said “jokes over, I’m framer and everyone is mafia chat yada yada stuff”

>Mario says his vote is serious

> Ph0ne shades Mario
>Mario explains
>Ph0ne shades Mario more

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:08 am
by 0verki11
Eragon1329 wrote:
0verki11 wrote:
Eragon1329 wrote:
0verki11 wrote:
Phone0Ix wrote:Why am I scum if Mario is town lol

holy shit this post is scummy.


whats so scummy about this that made you go

"holy shit this post is scummy"

forgot the proper term for it, but its shade and trying to make someone else appear scum/yourself not so. Does spew Mario town on a Phone flip


Deflection?

probably

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:35 am
by TheDebil
Eragon1329 wrote:is it weird I think Bodhrak's self-suspicion is towny?

im self-metaing here but it's something i would do as scum to make town think that my self-suspicion is towny.

Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM64 | Day 1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:48 am
by rightodude
I’m going to sleep now so get ready for zero replies from me.