Exacerbated wrote:7/2 is scum sided for what is essentially a mountainous game
The game was 9/2 though
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Exacerbated wrote:7/2 is scum sided for what is essentially a mountainous game
Chemist1422 wrote:Exacerbated wrote:7/2 is scum sided for what is essentially a mountainous game
only scum sided because we are all bad
Exacerbated wrote:9/2 is also mechanically scum-sided
11/2 is the only setup closed to balanced
RedClimate wrote:RAmcius wrote:Exacerbated wrote:9/2 is also mechanically scum-sided
11/2 is the only setup closed to balanced
are you sure? I've seen elsewhere people claiming 11/2 is very scumsided and it's nearly impossible for town to win
Its like an after scum lynch at d1 of 10v3 game and I heard 10v3 has over %70 scum win so I think 9v2 is somehow ok
Crimson97 wrote:Both mafia may be neighbours.
kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%
I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.
RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%
I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.
If FM worked without players participating in it and host just randomly generated lynches and kills (town only), you would be right, but in FM human factor plays the biggest role.
Also, why would town ever no lynch to turn game end LYLO into MYLO?
kosmo16 wrote:RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%
I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.
If FM worked without players participating in it and host just randomly generated lynches and kills (town only), you would be right, but in FM human factor plays the biggest role.
Also, why would town ever no lynch to turn game end LYLO into MYLO?
It's simple. Imagine 4P game. 3 villagers vs 1 wolf, you have 25% chance to lynch wolf, if you fail you lose. If you no lynch Day 1, Day 2 you are in 2v1, so your chance to lynch wolf increases from 25% to 33%. It is why in mountainous games with even amount of players you should no lynch Day 1. Here are win ratios if you decide to lynch everyday:
10v2 - 26,43%
12v2 - 30,49%
14v2 - 33,95%
16v2 - 36,92%
18v2 - 39,52%
20v2 - 41,82%
RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%
I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.
If FM worked without players participating in it and host just randomly generated lynches and kills (town only), you would be right, but in FM human factor plays the biggest role.
Also, why would town ever no lynch to turn game end LYLO into MYLO?
It's simple. Imagine 4P game. 3 villagers vs 1 wolf, you have 25% chance to lynch wolf, if you fail you lose. If you no lynch Day 1, Day 2 you are in 2v1, so your chance to lynch wolf increases from 25% to 33%. It is why in mountainous games with even amount of players you should no lynch Day 1. Here are win ratios if you decide to lynch everyday:
10v2 - 26,43%
12v2 - 30,49%
14v2 - 33,95%
16v2 - 36,92%
18v2 - 39,52%
20v2 - 41,82%
it would work only against bad scum, good scum simply wouldn't kill that night.
anyway, my question was why town would ever turn odd to even? 9v2, 11v2, etc were all odd and you said town would no lynch
kosmo16 wrote:RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%
I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.
If FM worked without players participating in it and host just randomly generated lynches and kills (town only), you would be right, but in FM human factor plays the biggest role.
Also, why would town ever no lynch to turn game end LYLO into MYLO?
It's simple. Imagine 4P game. 3 villagers vs 1 wolf, you have 25% chance to lynch wolf, if you fail you lose. If you no lynch Day 1, Day 2 you are in 2v1, so your chance to lynch wolf increases from 25% to 33%. It is why in mountainous games with even amount of players you should no lynch Day 1. Here are win ratios if you decide to lynch everyday:
10v2 - 26,43%
12v2 - 30,49%
14v2 - 33,95%
16v2 - 36,92%
18v2 - 39,52%
20v2 - 41,82%
it would work only against bad scum, good scum simply wouldn't kill that night.
anyway, my question was why town would ever turn odd to even? 9v2, 11v2, etc were all odd and you said town would no lynch
Of course they can no-kill. You can always accept draw
I didn't say they shouldn't lynch in odd. They shouldn't lynch when amount of players is even.
Also you said that in FM human factor plays a big role. I agree, these odds should be lower, because Mafia is killing the best players. So, 9v2 is even lower than 35.21%. I really have no idea why Crimson decided that both Mafias can be neighbours. It was bad.
RAmcius wrote: Spoiler:
because if he didn't, after scum lynch all lynched scum's neighbours becomes ICs, so potentially you might clear up to 3 ppl after scum lynch
as for odds, why you assume good players can't find scum before they die?
kosmo16 wrote:Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.
RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.
i agree, that's why smaller setups are more balanced - less bad towns, so good players can spot scum easier
making ML pool for scum smaller and reducing PoE pool for town is very townsided, on top of that, scum must kill cleared towns instead of killing whoever is most dangerous to them, and all that after they are left alone
kosmo16 wrote:RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.
i agree, that's why smaller setups are more balanced - less bad towns, so good players can spot scum easier
making ML pool for scum smaller and reducing PoE pool for town is very townsided, on top of that, scum must kill cleared towns instead of killing whoever is most dangerous to them, and all that after they are left alone
First, they must die... 25% chance for scum to not die, like in this game.
RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.
i agree, that's why smaller setups are more balanced - less bad towns, so good players can spot scum easier
making ML pool for scum smaller and reducing PoE pool for town is very townsided, on top of that, scum must kill cleared towns instead of killing whoever is most dangerous to them, and all that after they are left alone
First, they must die... 25% chance for scum to not die, like in this game.
Yes, so it would turn this game into white flag essentially - town would need just lynch 1 scum and if they lucky/fast enough, they win on the spot
If you want balance game, try find some mechanic that doesn't swing game very hard
kosmo16 wrote:RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.
i agree, that's why smaller setups are more balanced - less bad towns, so good players can spot scum easier
making ML pool for scum smaller and reducing PoE pool for town is very townsided, on top of that, scum must kill cleared towns instead of killing whoever is most dangerous to them, and all that after they are left alone
First, they must die... 25% chance for scum to not die, like in this game.
Yes, so it would turn this game into white flag essentially - town would need just lynch 1 scum and if they lucky/fast enough, they win on the spot
If you want balance game, try find some mechanic that doesn't swing game very hard
Lynching scum D1 and clearing 3 people gives Town 66,66% chance to win. Its not a winning on the spot.
RAmcius wrote:if games had no day phases, yes, you right
kosmo16 wrote:RAmcius wrote:if games had no day phases, yes, you right
It's Math. I believe it is valid if all players have equal skill.
RAmcius wrote:kosmo16 wrote:RAmcius wrote:if games had no day phases, yes, you right
It's Math. I believe it is valid if all players have equal skill.
not really, it's valid, if lynches are random, so no day phases. In equal skill games town have upper hand
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