VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby EvanManManMan » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:31 pm

Exacerbated wrote:7/2 is scum sided for what is essentially a mountainous game

The game was 9/2 though
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby EvanManManMan » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:32 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:
Exacerbated wrote:7/2 is scum sided for what is essentially a mountainous game

only scum sided because we are all bad

7/2 mountainous is mechanically scum sided

Stop making an ass out of yourself it really isn't this hard
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby Exacerbated » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:15 pm

9/2 is also mechanically scum-sided

11/2 is the only setup closed to balanced
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby RAmcius » Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:36 am

Exacerbated wrote:9/2 is also mechanically scum-sided

11/2 is the only setup closed to balanced


are you sure? I've seen elsewhere people claiming 11/2 is very scumsided and it's nearly impossible for town to win
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby RAmcius » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:51 am

RedClimate wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
Exacerbated wrote:9/2 is also mechanically scum-sided

11/2 is the only setup closed to balanced


are you sure? I've seen elsewhere people claiming 11/2 is very scumsided and it's nearly impossible for town to win

Its like an after scum lynch at d1 of 10v3 game and I heard 10v3 has over %70 scum win so I think 9v2 is somehow ok


it's worse - with D1 scum lynch you have some associations, but with 2 scum team there very little associations to work and you have 11 town for grabs, scum just need hold up for couple phases while they kill best town players and then let town eat itself without any leads or someone to lead them
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby RAmcius » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:52 am

Oh, you a theory guy, i don't really care how balance looks on paper, i use past games to look how they were influenced by human factor
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby EvanManManMan » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:45 am

9 v 2 mountainous is balanced
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby Exacerbated » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:14 pm

11v2 balanced in real life, maybe different online
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby kosmo16 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:29 am

If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%

I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby kosmo16 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:58 am

This should be removed to have a more balanced game, because 35,21% was not ok.
Crimson97 wrote:Both mafia may be neighbours.
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby RAmcius » Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:56 am

kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%

I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.

If FM worked without players participating in it and host just randomly generated lynches and kills (town only), you would be right, but in FM human factor plays the biggest role.

Also, why would town ever no lynch to turn game end LYLO into MYLO?
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby kosmo16 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:09 am

RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%

I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.

If FM worked without players participating in it and host just randomly generated lynches and kills (town only), you would be right, but in FM human factor plays the biggest role.

Also, why would town ever no lynch to turn game end LYLO into MYLO?


It's simple. Imagine 4P game. 3 villagers vs 1 wolf, you have 25% chance to lynch wolf, if you fail you lose. If you no lynch Day 1, Day 2 you are in 2v1, so your chance to lynch wolf increases from 25% to 33%. It is why in mountainous games with even amount of players you should no lynch Day 1. Here are win ratios if you decide to lynch everyday:
10v2 - 26,43%
12v2 - 30,49%
14v2 - 33,95%
16v2 - 36,92%
18v2 - 39,52%
20v2 - 41,82%
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby RAmcius » Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:49 am

kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%

I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.

If FM worked without players participating in it and host just randomly generated lynches and kills (town only), you would be right, but in FM human factor plays the biggest role.

Also, why would town ever no lynch to turn game end LYLO into MYLO?


It's simple. Imagine 4P game. 3 villagers vs 1 wolf, you have 25% chance to lynch wolf, if you fail you lose. If you no lynch Day 1, Day 2 you are in 2v1, so your chance to lynch wolf increases from 25% to 33%. It is why in mountainous games with even amount of players you should no lynch Day 1. Here are win ratios if you decide to lynch everyday:
10v2 - 26,43%
12v2 - 30,49%
14v2 - 33,95%
16v2 - 36,92%
18v2 - 39,52%
20v2 - 41,82%


it would work only against bad scum, good scum simply wouldn't kill that night.

anyway, my question was why town would ever turn odd to even? 9v2, 11v2, etc were all odd and you said town would no lynch
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby kosmo16 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:11 am

RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%

I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.

If FM worked without players participating in it and host just randomly generated lynches and kills (town only), you would be right, but in FM human factor plays the biggest role.

Also, why would town ever no lynch to turn game end LYLO into MYLO?


It's simple. Imagine 4P game. 3 villagers vs 1 wolf, you have 25% chance to lynch wolf, if you fail you lose. If you no lynch Day 1, Day 2 you are in 2v1, so your chance to lynch wolf increases from 25% to 33%. It is why in mountainous games with even amount of players you should no lynch Day 1. Here are win ratios if you decide to lynch everyday:
10v2 - 26,43%
12v2 - 30,49%
14v2 - 33,95%
16v2 - 36,92%
18v2 - 39,52%
20v2 - 41,82%


it would work only against bad scum, good scum simply wouldn't kill that night.

anyway, my question was why town would ever turn odd to even? 9v2, 11v2, etc were all odd and you said town would no lynch

Of course they can no-kill. You can always accept draw ;)
I didn't say they shouldn't lynch in odd. They shouldn't lynch when amount of players is even.

Also you said that in FM human factor plays a big role. I agree, these odds should be lower, because Mafia is killing the best players. So, 9v2 is even lower than 35.21%. I really have no idea why Crimson decided that both Mafias can be neighbours. It was bad.
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby RAmcius » Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:52 am

kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%

I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.

If FM worked without players participating in it and host just randomly generated lynches and kills (town only), you would be right, but in FM human factor plays the biggest role.

Also, why would town ever no lynch to turn game end LYLO into MYLO?


It's simple. Imagine 4P game. 3 villagers vs 1 wolf, you have 25% chance to lynch wolf, if you fail you lose. If you no lynch Day 1, Day 2 you are in 2v1, so your chance to lynch wolf increases from 25% to 33%. It is why in mountainous games with even amount of players you should no lynch Day 1. Here are win ratios if you decide to lynch everyday:
10v2 - 26,43%
12v2 - 30,49%
14v2 - 33,95%
16v2 - 36,92%
18v2 - 39,52%
20v2 - 41,82%


it would work only against bad scum, good scum simply wouldn't kill that night.

anyway, my question was why town would ever turn odd to even? 9v2, 11v2, etc were all odd and you said town would no lynch

Of course they can no-kill. You can always accept draw ;)
I didn't say they shouldn't lynch in odd. They shouldn't lynch when amount of players is even.

Also you said that in FM human factor plays a big role. I agree, these odds should be lower, because Mafia is killing the best players. So, 9v2 is even lower than 35.21%. I really have no idea why Crimson decided that both Mafias can be neighbours. It was bad.


because if he didn't, after scum lynch all lynched scum's neighbours becomes ICs, so potentially you might clear up to 3 ppl after scum lynch

as for odds, why you assume good players can't find scum before they die?
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby kosmo16 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:02 am

RAmcius wrote: Spoiler:
kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:If you eliminate human factor and take into account only probability Town's win-ratio is as follows:
9v2 - 35.21%
11v2 - 39,49%
13v2 - 43,01%
15v2 - 45,97%
17v2 - 48,51%
19v2 - 50,71%

I won't check even amount of players, because Town should no-lynch at some point.

If FM worked without players participating in it and host just randomly generated lynches and kills (town only), you would be right, but in FM human factor plays the biggest role.

Also, why would town ever no lynch to turn game end LYLO into MYLO?


It's simple. Imagine 4P game. 3 villagers vs 1 wolf, you have 25% chance to lynch wolf, if you fail you lose. If you no lynch Day 1, Day 2 you are in 2v1, so your chance to lynch wolf increases from 25% to 33%. It is why in mountainous games with even amount of players you should no lynch Day 1. Here are win ratios if you decide to lynch everyday:
10v2 - 26,43%
12v2 - 30,49%
14v2 - 33,95%
16v2 - 36,92%
18v2 - 39,52%
20v2 - 41,82%


it would work only against bad scum, good scum simply wouldn't kill that night.

anyway, my question was why town would ever turn odd to even? 9v2, 11v2, etc were all odd and you said town would no lynch

Of course they can no-kill. You can always accept draw ;)
I didn't say they shouldn't lynch in odd. They shouldn't lynch when amount of players is even.

Also you said that in FM human factor plays a big role. I agree, these odds should be lower, because Mafia is killing the best players. So, 9v2 is even lower than 35.21%. I really have no idea why Crimson decided that both Mafias can be neighbours. It was bad.


because if he didn't, after scum lynch all lynched scum's neighbours becomes ICs, so potentially you might clear up to 3 ppl after scum lynch

as for odds, why you assume good players can't find scum before they die?


Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby RAmcius » Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:22 am

kosmo16 wrote:Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.


i agree, that's why smaller setups are more balanced - less bad towns, so good players can spot scum easier

making ML pool for scum smaller and reducing PoE pool for town is very townsided, on top of that, scum must kill cleared towns instead of killing whoever is most dangerous to them, and all that after they are left alone
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby kosmo16 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:13 pm

RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.


i agree, that's why smaller setups are more balanced - less bad towns, so good players can spot scum easier

making ML pool for scum smaller and reducing PoE pool for town is very townsided, on top of that, scum must kill cleared towns instead of killing whoever is most dangerous to them, and all that after they are left alone


First, they must die... 25% chance for scum to not die, like in this game.
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby RAmcius » Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:04 pm

kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.


i agree, that's why smaller setups are more balanced - less bad towns, so good players can spot scum easier

making ML pool for scum smaller and reducing PoE pool for town is very townsided, on top of that, scum must kill cleared towns instead of killing whoever is most dangerous to them, and all that after they are left alone


First, they must die... 25% chance for scum to not die, like in this game.


Yes, so it would turn this game into white flag essentially - town would need just lynch 1 scum and if they lucky/fast enough, they win on the spot

If you want balance game, try find some mechanic that doesn't swing game very hard
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby kosmo16 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:15 am

RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.


i agree, that's why smaller setups are more balanced - less bad towns, so good players can spot scum easier

making ML pool for scum smaller and reducing PoE pool for town is very townsided, on top of that, scum must kill cleared towns instead of killing whoever is most dangerous to them, and all that after they are left alone


First, they must die... 25% chance for scum to not die, like in this game.


Yes, so it would turn this game into white flag essentially - town would need just lynch 1 scum and if they lucky/fast enough, they win on the spot

If you want balance game, try find some mechanic that doesn't swing game very hard


Lynching scum D1 and clearing 3 people gives Town 66,66% chance to win. Its not a winning on the spot.
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby kosmo16 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:24 am

kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:Because bad Town-players will make it harder for them (; Also why you think clearing 3 ppl is bad? It should raise Town odds, but I doubt it would exceed 50-55%. It would make game more balanced.


i agree, that's why smaller setups are more balanced - less bad towns, so good players can spot scum easier

making ML pool for scum smaller and reducing PoE pool for town is very townsided, on top of that, scum must kill cleared towns instead of killing whoever is most dangerous to them, and all that after they are left alone


First, they must die... 25% chance for scum to not die, like in this game.


Yes, so it would turn this game into white flag essentially - town would need just lynch 1 scum and if they lucky/fast enough, they win on the spot

If you want balance game, try find some mechanic that doesn't swing game very hard


Lynching scum D1 and clearing 3 people gives Town 66,66% chance to win. Its not a winning on the spot.


For comparision lynching D1 scum and not clearing anyone is 59,36%.
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby RAmcius » Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:11 am

if games had no day phases, yes, you right
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby kosmo16 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:21 am

RAmcius wrote:if games had no day phases, yes, you right


It's Math. I believe it is valid if all players have equal skill.
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby RAmcius » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:34 am

kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:if games had no day phases, yes, you right


It's Math. I believe it is valid if all players have equal skill.


not really, it's valid, if lynches are random, so no day phases. In equal skill games town have upper hand
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Re: VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

Postby kosmo16 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:25 am

RAmcius wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:
RAmcius wrote:if games had no day phases, yes, you right


It's Math. I believe it is valid if all players have equal skill.


not really, it's valid, if lynches are random, so no day phases. In equal skill games town have upper hand


Oh, really? How so?
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