8M | OCTOPATH | Game Over | Town Wins!

[Veeena]

I am awaiting Lexiam to respond to the past negative connotations people have been giving to him. It would seem quite interesting know what his reactions would be. I fear for some of you that reading me from an ISO perspective is going to be the worst way you can do so at these times.

To be simple, I like the way Naru has been playing and he seems to be one of my stronger town choices. Rick will forever be a neutral case until otherwise shown because his playstyle seems to be similar to any game he is in (which makes him more of a loose cannon and a bad choice to attack if he is indeed town). Mela too seems to be town oriented and I don't understand her negative connotations people brought up a page or two ago.

[Jerme]

@Rick: There is a sudden gut feelign without any base on my suspect.

Regardign the RB things - I volunteer as a tribute for both roelblockers to visit me tonight.

[RockFire]

Okay, so let me be clear since some people here haven't played in a while or rarely play. Nobody volunteers for any of this RB business because it's a bad idea since it gives scum information. It's more helpful to them than Town.

In other news, Jerme is a town read now because I'm fairly sure he doesn't play a lot and what he just did pings noob Town to me along with just doing gut stuff because I remember being much the same way way back when I first started. And what he just did.

Arckas is pretty iffy because he has more experience. Not sure what he is until he says more.

[Arckas]

Arckas is pretty iffy because he has more experience. Not sure what he is until he says more.

>Says he has experience
>Played one game

It's kinda hard to conjure game altering maneuvers with so little information given. If you want to know how I feel about the situation- nothing has happened worthy of importance. Talking about how active people are talking and passing it off as something substantial is just unproductive and lame. Just entertaining the thought that you can tell someone alignment but how they type leads to confirmation bias.

I'd be more skeptical of people that are doing just that, but then I have to give them credit because this is a low information thinking man game of FM.

[RockFire]

Was it just one? I figured you'd played more. Regardless, moving on

Just entertaining the thought that you can tell someone alignment but how they type leads to confirmation bias.

I'd be more skeptical of people that are doing just that, but then I have to give them credit because this is a low information thinking man game of FM.

It's not how they type but what they say combined with when and how. The whole point of FM is to figure out people for a lynch using limited info for early to mid game. Mafia games typically are not going to have all information out until endgame. What I'm confused about is casting doubt on those of us trying to state our reads and then saying to give us credit for doing so?

[Arckas]

Was it just one? I figured you'd played more. Regardless, moving on

Just entertaining the thought that you can tell someone alignment but how they type leads to confirmation bias.

I'd be more skeptical of people that are doing just that, but then I have to give them credit because this is a low information thinking man game of FM.

It's not how they type but what they say combined with when and how. The whole point of FM is to figure out people for a lynch using limited info for early to mid game. Mafia games typically are not going to have all information out until endgame. What I'm confused about is casting doubt on those of us trying to state our reads and then saying to give us credit for doing so?

I'm used to explosive high energy first days.

You asked me to say more, so here I my thoughts. Anyone can say they they think another person postings are strange. Mafia tend to rely on this more because this method of lynching doesn't require actual information but simply gut. Mafia also have an added benefit of having buddies to act as perfect strangers to protect and push someone while under the guise of a perfect stranger. Town may do this, but mafia that the clear advantage through this method. I can't fault everyone for doing this when no information is presented, however, as using gut is the only way to do anything.

[Guzame]

Alright, a lot seems to have happened since I was last online, so let's go over everything new.

First of all, since this seems to be the accepted meta: I slept peacefully.

Second, and more importantly..

That's... An interesting choice for a night 1 kill. I assume they picked Gent because they were one of the least likely players to be protected tonight?

I'm looking at the death note, trying to think of who'd leave a message like that. It's got a surprising amount of personality to it, especially with a Lenny face of all things. It's not something I'd expect a lot of players to use. But then again, it could be done on purpose to make the more "memey" players look suspicious?

It's probably not worth it to pursue that line of thinking for now.

Not this. Explain further, guzame.

TrueGent was both in my last game I played and this one. In my experience with them, they have come across as a player who tends to be difficult to read because of short posts and a meme-y nature to them. Both in my last game and the current one, I had a scummy read on TrueGent from the start. I know others did as well, even in this game some people mention not being able to read TrueGent. Being difficult to read is a good quality to have to play this game, because you can play well both as mafia and as town. But it makes the game a more difficult for the town, because these players tend to cause confusion, and take attention away from other mafia players.
I was very surprised to see the mafia go for a player like this, instead of a player with a stronger town vibe.

I can not imagine that any town protective role would have picked Gent out of all of the active players last night.

That's... An interesting choice for a night 1 kill. I assume they picked Gent because they were one of the least likely players to be protected tonight?

I'm looking at the death note, trying to think of who'd leave a message like that. It's got a surprising amount of personality to it, especially with a Lenny face of all things. It's not something I'd expect a lot of players to use. But then again, it could be done on purpose to make the more "memey" players look suspicious?

It's probably not worth it to pursue that line of thinking for now.

I really don't like this post from Guzame.

I feel that speculation about especially the Night 1 kill in particular, but also the death note, are talking points that Scum would often use to try to push conversation forward in a meaningless way that wouldn't really go anywhere useful. Especially when he goes on to tack on a "probably not worth talking about this line", because then he pretty much admits the whole post is fluff in the first place.

Like, I don't know, I just imagine him as being more productive as Town if he acknowledges the pointlessness of the topic.

I'll admit I could have probably left out the second half of my post. I wrote out my thoughts on the death note, and came to the conclusion that you couldn't deduce any suspects with it. That's why I left it in, hoping that others would agree with me and it wouldn't turn into a long dissection of possible note writers.

(And fine, I admit it, I didn't want to make a post less than 2 paragraphs. I'd just feel... dirty.)

[Guzame]

And because Ender complained that I ignored Gent's post where they called me wolfy:

Hi everybody!

It's cool to see some old names again, for my first game in forever. This is my second return to the forums, after my first attempt crashed and burned quickly. Let's hope this one goes better!

I know next to nothing about octopath traveler, although it's on my long, loooooong list of games i need to play. So all the references will probably go right over my head.

(Ignore any bad writing, I'm writing this post on my phone from my bed, with a big fan aimed at me. It's the most bearable place to be with yet another heat wave hitting us this week.)

Can't tell if post is Wolfy or bad

Is being on mobile a good reason to multipost asking for a friend

I didn't take this post seriously. It's written in Gent's style of calling out gut feelings without adding any explanations to it. If they don't offer any arguments for why my post is wolfy/bad, I can't defend myself. And I see no reason to pry them for a reason if they won't give one by themselves.




But besides that, let's see at what information we have so far. we have one death, and two players claiming to be roleblocked. Every other player claims they did not have anything happen to them.
It does not give us much information, except maybe for the neutral role. Assuming this game uses standard FM roles( and it seems like it does), we know that the neutral is likely not a killing role or a role that uses an ability on others. Unless they had the good/bad luck of hitting a mafia player who chooses to hide it from us. (Or both the neutral and the mafia targeted Gent)

As for the double roleblock. While it's possible that there's two roleblockers on one side, for now I'm going to assume the more likely option of both an Escort and a Consort. That not only means that revealing your role comes at a bigger risk, even with a town protective. But it also means that once one role blocker blocks the other, things could get interesting.
Of course, that's assuming neither of them is lying about being roleblocked.

As for some of my reads so far..

ObiWan: Somewhat of a mafia vibe. His d1 town read on Gent is still odd to me. Especially now with Gent dying the same night, proving his read and making him look more trustworthy? It seems a bit too convenient.

Rick: A small town read. He's active and is willing to attack without seeming overeager, which seems good to me. But I still remember Serial Killer Rick, so I remain suspicious..

Mel: Town read. They've been very active, and seemed to have been one of the players moving conversation along the most on day 2, bringing up new topics and trying to get other players to talk as well. Then again, Obi says this is very different from their usual town play. But I haven't seen them play before, so I can only go by what I see so far.

Rock: Town read. They've been talkative, and I agree with a lot of what they said so far. Rick even pointed out some of our posts were very similar >_>

Ender: undecided. I feel a bit odd about him attacking me so strongly on my first post of the day when other players have said the same thing, both about the death note not being the time to keep talking about, and Gent being an unexpected choice for a d1 kill. Then again, with me being the one he went for, I'm not exactly in a position to discuss that. I believe the term for that is OMGUS?
I also don't like going after players who are willing to make accusations early on in the game, because they tend to keep the game flow up.

Jerme: slight scum vibe. They haven't contributed much, and the one post that had some interesting content was an accusation of Metrion purely on gut feel.

Arckas: undecided. While he has contributed and I like the vibe from most of his posts, I didn't like his idea to have the same players be blocked again. There are far too many variables for how that could end up failing, and we'd give up a night where a Town Escort could go for a better target.

Metrion: town vibe. They were much more active during day 1 than day 2, but they did make a few good posts today. I especially liked them calling out Arckas.

Any other players I either haven't seen enough of, or they haven't made an impact on me one way or another.

[melanora]

Obi idk how you can say I'm just agreeing with people when I've brought up multiple things to start conversations, but okay...



THAT STATED I WILL SAY THIS.


Y'all I'm so paranoid, I'm paranoid of like everything.

Maybe I'm still broken from Ender's game, and fuck you Schultz btw - I should have voted you D1, just because you deserve it.

Maybe I'm just wary because Obi and Rick are in the same game with me and it makes me nervous bc I can't read them.


I'm so paranoid, I've just hit the point where nothing and no one is trusted and I'm over the top to the point of mellow.

I literally will not be okay until this game is over.

[Arcthurus]

@Rick
Spoiler:

.

i mean how do you know you slept peacefully
what was your last game of fm

nevermind lol

Also a weird exchange, but to be fair, I didn't check Discord before the forums either. Was this what happened, Arc?

Yeah. Again, my bad. I thought that this was one of those games where no message = "slept peacefully" which nhero, as an older player, shouldn't have known. Thought I had found a slip.

Since I'm talking to you anyway:

I feel that speculation about especially the Night 1 kill in particular, but also the death note, are talking points that Scum would often use to try to push conversation forward in a meaningless way that wouldn't really go anywhere useful. Especially when he goes on to tack on a "probably not worth talking about this line", because then he pretty much admits the whole post is fluff in the first place.

I understand what you're saying about guzame and you probably know him better than I do but the DN post I felt was expected from someone who's not played in a long time. I also think it's more likely that someone who is fluffing does not admit so without being called out first, if the goal is to appear productive then that ending is shooting yourself in the foot.

Not going to quote this, but Ender's entry into the game I ended up liking a lot. I found myself nodding a a lot of what he says here and in future posts, so his ISO looks good to me. Probably the most annoying thing about this post of his was the bit about the role list.

What whould this be, exactly? You say you agreed with a lot to what he had to say, but you actually seem to disagree on most points: he thinks Gent was on the right track, so he thinks the kill analysis is meaningful, you disagree-- he thinks confidently gent's scum reads are the lynch today, you present hesitation to look at them-- he believes the players discussing the DN (namely rock, guz e mela) were not doing so out of evil intent but of genuine contribution, you concluded exactly the opposite. This read is really weird, like cognitive dissonance. To be fair you did say the role list was the "most annoying" which would imply more annoyance but the wording still doesnt fit.

No comment on the Obi read because I havent read the other game nor intend to.
------------------------------------------------------

Obi idk how you can say I'm just agreeing with people when I've brought up multiple things to start conversations, but okay...

Thats a bit of an overstatement. You asked people about what they thought each RB alignment was.
I believe Met had the hottest take out of everyone on this. 1 Consort for sure, regardless if there's a fake or not. Anything more than that is a stretch. I'll echo what he said about Naru's post not being weird. If there's ANY time a fake RB claim is good, that would be N1.

Thing is, either target is someone that I would RB regardless of alignment. Neither said much of anything. If I had to place a layer on it?

Arckas for the scum RB and TP for the town RB.

Arckas can get away with a lot of stuff, I feel, whereas RBing TP just seems wayward and something a player without a lot of experience would do.

What's does that mean
re underlined: I assume you changed your mind from that post to this next one..?

The more that I try to analyze WHY ARCKAS, it doesn't make sense. Like it literally doesn't.

You were quiet D1. I don't see any real logic behind it.

-------------------------------------------------
I'm liking all of Met/Rock/Jerme/Obi, from a mixture of having nice takes and/or just overall vibe.

[Arcthurus]

What's does that mean

*this is about the bolded part

[Arckas]

Oh yeah Arc, here is this-

Mela and rock have the same thoughts on me, however Rock didn't have the information to make his claim.

Arckas can get away with a lot of stuff, I feel, whereas RBing TP just seems wayward and something a player without a lot of experience would do.

Arckas is pretty iffy because he has more experience. Not sure what he is until he says more.

Was it just one? I figured you'd played more. Regardless, moving on

Mela is using my performance in Cytokine to base her judgement, which is sensible. What does not make much sense is RockFire assuming I have a lot of experience. I can't even recall my last FM game, let alone an FM game with RockFire. I'm not a symbol of FM performance like Rick or Obiwan. I'm not someone who is used as an example of a good FM player. In fact whenever I'm asked about FM I tell people that I hardly know FM anymore as it's changed so much from source material and the last time I played it. Why does RockFire assume I'm good?

A conclusion: RockFire is mafia and they had a lengthy discussion about players. One of the mafia members is from Cytokine and said I had a lot of experience and this influenced RockFire to make a slip like this.

I hate using using past experiences to make a claim there's not much I can do when others are doing it.

[melanora]

Thing is, either target is someone that I would RB regardless of alignment. Neither said much of anything. If I had to place a layer on it?

Arckas for the scum RB and TP for the town RB.

Arckas can get away with a lot of stuff, I feel, whereas RBing TP just seems wayward and something a player without a lot of experience would do.

What's does that mean
re underlined: I assume you changed your mind from that post to this next one..?

The more that I try to analyze WHY ARCKAS, it doesn't make sense. Like it literally doesn't.

You were quiet D1. I don't see any real logic behind it.

You know how you write something and then you go back later and try to translate yourself and you're just confused AF?

I thought I said NEITHER target is someone I would RB, regardless of alignment. Did you fork up the quote, or did I just typo when I wrote it?

I meant to say that I wouldn't RB either of them. There was literally way better targets all over the place. They made no sense for RB targets.

Arckas is a relatively good player lately, is what I meant, whereas TP has no FM experience. I feel like Arckas can bullshit is way through things whereas TP, if he's scum, I think he'll out himself.

[melanora]

Yeah, going back and rereading my post, I meant that neither of them is someone that I would RB, and I think they're really odd RB choices. I get the idea that a Escort wouldn't want to mess with something important, but generally TI should be playing quiet until they find something - you don't RB the quiet people because of that.

TP wasn't hinting anything??? Did I see someone say that TP was softing a Power Role? Did I miss something? He wasn't???

[Nellyfox]

hiii im back from dc

slept peacefully zzz

tbh the death note first impression was TP & idk it feels stronger because he claims to have been roleblocked
sorry i didnt like in depth read everything at all lol so if someone else mentioned this or tagged me in something please quote. im exhausted from travel. thanks

[melanora]

nelly bb no rush catch up when you can we're not running a race here

[ObiWan]

Arckas, thanks for basically calling me a good player (I think), but I'm not.
It did make me laugh though XD

Will look at the Rock/Arckas stuffs, and ender stuffs in a bit tonight.
I'll admit I was skimming over some paragraphs and not fully reading everything =P

I see a lot of speculation on the kill and the rb stuff. While some speculation is fine, I think solely looking at those things won't really help us, at least not right now.
Death note isn't something to dwell on either imo.

I'd like to hear more from Turd/Nhero/Nelly/Schultz/Lexiam on who they find is towny/scummy atm.

PEdit: Hey Nelly. Catch up when ya can.

[Nellyfox]

nelly bb no rush catch up when you can we're not running a race here

i dont wanna in depth read everything it's summer and im still a student

basically the tl;dr from my skimming was

rick is being rick
rock is being rock
nhero & m4x have been Around but not around enough
people think guzame and rock are ? maybe arckas too for the "roleblock same targets again" (which doesnt make sense for any alignment to do)

did i miss anything do i have to address anything specifically

I'd like to hear more from Turd/Nhero/Nelly/Schultz/Lexiam on who they find is towny/scummy atm.

hi

[ObiWan]

did i miss anything do i have to address anything specifically

There's really not that much to read, at least skim things and see if anything sticks out to you that someone has said.
Or pick a couple people and ISO dive for a second.
Please

I said please

<3

[Nellyfox]

ughh ok because you said please and i need to mess up my sleep schedule again now that im home
give me a bit tho

[Arcthurus]

A conclusion: RockFire is mafia and they had a lengthy discussion about players. One of the mafia members is from Cytokine and said I had a lot of experience and this influenced RockFire to make a slip like this.

That seems to rely a little too much on mafia being bad at communicating with each other. I get what you mean, and sure it's possible, but it just feels flimsy. It's also not a hard stretch to think someone in this game is good if you don't know them.

[RockFire]

Arckas, I've been gone for two years and you were still a GM and activeish and I assumed you'd played more games than you really had. Could have sworn I'd played with you before but I guess I'm not really remembering right if the only game you've played is Cytokine.

And I was referring to how you and Jerme said similar things about the RBs but I was under the assumption you'd played more which is why I didn't know what to really make of you. I wasn't saying the same thing as Mel but taking about your RB talk so sorry for the confusion. And I'm also not touching a GFM thing even to check who was even in it at all considering I still have horrible flashbacks of being screwed by merges as an NK.

Also, Mel, Met was just saying Arckas asking for him and TP to both be RB'ed again would have to force TP to soft a power role.


Obi, is diving into mela not a thing besides this short quip you said after voting Guzame?

What I don’t like about Mela is she is agreeing with a lot of shit people are saying. Whereas I feel Town Mela doesn’t trust anyone and doesn’t give out Town reads right off the bat. She’s also mostly focusing on the role list, which makes me think she’s avoiding conflict with others. In fact I don’t know that I’ve seen her call anyone scummy yet day 2.
Anyone stand out to you Mela?

[RockFire]

Nhero and Max, post thoughts about people please instead of just looking at what's been said. I see you both on the board.

[NheroArconix]

nhero & m4x have been Around but not around enough

Nhero and Max, post thoughts about people please instead of just looking at what's been said. I see you both on the board.

this always seems to be my flaw playing fm
while im here i just realized i took nearly an hour typing this post and it still doesn't feel like a good post

I'd like to hear more from Turd/Nhero/Nelly/Schultz/Lexiam on who they find is towny/scummy atm.

I can't say I have anything close to solid reads yet (which is the main reason I haven't been posting) but here:

Arckas - confused townie?? rb suggestion still confuses me but it seemed like he's trying to help

Arcthurus - town, although this is gut read off a single sentence that really gives me the feeling. Make what you will of it.
Spoiler:

Yeah. Again, my bad. I thought that this was one of those games where no message = "slept peacefully" which nhero, as an older player, shouldn't have known. Thought I had found a slip. :(

Rick - Not sure how to read him yet, but im leaning towards town.

Melanora - Town, tends to be actively trying to provoke a discussion topic. Agree with them on "wait, why roleblock these people" posts. Either shows the roleblockers are new/inexperienced, possible memers (turdpile), or had a strong read on them somehow in a game where D1 is mostly a meme.

Metrion - Town. The posts he have made are short and to a very focused point rather then trying to mislead players.

Obi - Slight town. Aggressive early on towards mel but haven't seen much past this.

Rockfire - ???/Town im not sure. Aggressive in getting information out of players.

Guzame - ???/Slight scum. I don't really agree with his thoughts on Gent being low-priority but it's not enough to base a good read off of.

enderitem - ???/Slight town. Mostly a gut feeling, but his posts also seem to be provoking discussion even if it's not being taken well.

Jerme/Veena/Turdpile/Schulz/Lexiam/Nelly/Naru - ??? not enough for me to have a read. Bolded players have barely said anything today of note in terms of getting a read.

[ObiWan]

[quote="RockFire"]Obi, is diving into mela not a thing besides this short quip you said after voting Guzame?

That basically sums it up atm, unless you want me to break down every single post.
I don't usually do ISO dives until later on, that is just my initial thoughts on her atm.