8M | OCTOPATH | Game Over | Town Wins!

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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby enderitem » Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:56 pm

I was gonna reaction test Rick with a Doc claim to see how he reacts considering I can only see him as a Witch logically but he ruined it and now I am mad at him hence the vote. I saw everyone doing those cool tests and I wanted to be a hero as well. I guess I still am tired from the trip. I will go through our players when I get the chance. It's 2 AM.
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:02 pm

Rock, clarify last night's results.
Rick, clarify wether a witch can come up as different from town or not.


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Metrion » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:09 pm

Arcthurus wrote:
Metrion wrote:
Arcthurus wrote:They were weird, kind of like he knew Rock targeted Rick and was about to claim. Of course with him voting Rick now that's probably out of the window.

What is this in response to?


"bickering"


I was talking about Rock and Rick?
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby RockFire » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:11 pm

Like I said, I slept peacefully and I was informed my Vig shot failed. I don't know why it failed but one of the reasons would be night immunity but there's also prot actions that can cause it to fail I presume.

I don't know specifics besides that because apparently that's the whole name of this game.
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:17 pm

Metrion wrote:Both your bicker posts were inconsequential unless I missed something.


I thought this was talking to me for my weird glares at Ender's posts. Were you talking to Rock? I'm confused now.


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Metrion » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:21 pm

Arcthurus wrote:
Metrion wrote:Both your bicker posts were inconsequential unless I missed something.


I thought this was talking to me for my weird glares at Ender's posts. Were you talking to Rock? I'm confused now.


I was talking about Rick and Rock biting each other's necks yes. I sort of shifted to be talking to R(o/i)ck after my initial line.
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby RockFire » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:22 pm

This means the only protective possibility would be Marshal in this case but they'd have been on Poison since they claimed Escort with a Witch around and the plan was they'd RB TP to stop another possible shot.

I figured he didn't because I had one and 4 KP for Town is dumb but said that to further the narrative that I had a Vet alert to avoid being visited last night to mess with my night actions.
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:33 pm

Who's your mafia team, Rock?


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby RockFire » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:36 pm

I literally just did this Arc.

So far that seems the only thing that seems likely from my train of thought.
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby PoisonMaid » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:57 pm

I'm on page 67. Just so y'all know, but I'll make this post. I slept peacefully.. But I chose to RB Metrion. But.. Metrion slept peacefully? I am deeply confused.
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby PoisonMaid » Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:11 pm

So I don't see how Naru was RBed but I chose Metrion. Wouldn't I have been notified if I was controlled? Naru felt a sinister presence.. I don't know if that is something he just put? Or if that is what was included on his RB.
I'm honestly slowly starting to trust Rock more and less of Rick. If anything, Rick would know to prove he is town he would have to keep up his.. "detective" look. But I still don't think he would lynch his own Mafia members. Maybe witch? No clue. But his townie rep side is slowly slipping from me. Did anyone protect him last night somehow? Why was he "immune"?

OR is Rock lying?
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:13 pm

PoisonMaid wrote:I'm on page 67. Just so y'all know, but I'll make this post. I slept peacefully.. But I chose to RB Metrion. But.. Metrion slept peacefully? I am deeply confused.


Why Met?


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby RockFire » Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:40 pm

Naru2008 wrote:First.

So I was roleblocked last night, and felt a sinister presence.

Interesting night, to say the least, especially with no kills.


Welp, I guess a Mafia redirector exists because that's really the only explanation for this when Poison claims they blocked Met. It was an interesting choice and I want to hear the train of thought that lead to that action. But regardless, the sinister presence must be felt by the person the action is redirected to.

We know they exist for sure since this has come up multiple times. The real issue is if this role exists ad Mafia, then I guess the MH is doing the kills but the fact that the last two days have them absent is a curious mystery unless our protective is Marshal and just super good at their job.
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:16 pm

I actually think mafia!Rick makes more sense than witch!rick. But both make no sense.

Witch rick has little control over who he is copping with his two initial results. If he picks two townies, even if he gets both of them lynched, he only reduced the list from 10v3+1 (game state when he claimed) to 6v3+1, and he pretty much always gets lynched at that point which, to a Witch, is a LOSS. A witch wouldn't win in death and I'm assuming regular wincon here. That's even assuming he would get more than one player lynched, which would require him to cop two players who can be reasonably suspected, instead he picks Ender as his first when Ender's on nobody's radar? That just makes his own job way harder.

So his plan would be to lynch Mafia then, looking at his pick of someone highly not mafia at the time and someone midly regarded as suspicious by one or two players. Nevermind the fact that he can't guarantee picking a mafia in the pair either so the whole gambit is really high risk for no reward, let's allow ourselves to overlook that. Rick lynched a mafia member, and cleared a town member, which is already pretty counterproductive as it is, but let's overlook that. What can Rick even do next? He has two options, either he'll incriminate someone or clear someone. If he does the former, he's stuck in the same problem: if he nails mafia again he digs his own grave, if he nails town he puts himself in a precarious position where his literal only option is to argue Framer. So he'll be essentially doing the latter until the game ends: carefully choosing which people to clear. He'll be narrowing the suspect pool quickly for the town until it arouses suspicion, but that's the only way Rick stays alive, by buying himself time. He has to keep going and hoping mafia pulls their weight to bring him to MyLo where he could claim a different check.

And then comes the question of the purpose of the gambit. If he really claimed TI as witch his only option is to clear people till MyLo. Disregarding all the risks I outlined that still doesn't match the fact that he's actually not been controlling the wagons at all by being loud and wall-y and stuff as Rock said his plan was, which also is another reason on why I don't believe Rick is doing this as mafia either. So his plan clearly wouldn't be to control the lynch, it'd be to stay alive after looking bad from the Lexiam lynch. Which begs a different question of why not just claim a different PR instead of one who has to produce results every night? (e.g prot)

Mafia rick has control over kills and his faction's actions allowing for better choice targets, and knows exactly who if any is mafia from their claimed results. I don't think Rick does this as mafia though because it kind of sucks too for him. He confirms himself but town was in an already good position so bussing just seems like piss poor in the long run. Also if the purpose was bussing, Mela would've played that day differently by a long shot I think to make sure it looked realistic, while implicating anyone else she could. Theoretically he could be mafia in the occasion he is scum with PoisonMaid but that's it, plus with the different check between Posion and Rock I find that even more unlikely now.


So no, Rick isn't scum.


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby RockFire » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:00 pm

Arc, I don't know what to tell you besides the fact that I shot Rick and he still lives and there's no other explanation for him still being alive. If you assume Witch wouldn't win in death, then what the hell am I doing since if I'm lying and Rick is not scum, I get lynched tomorrow? It's 7v3 and all I would accomplish is get the game into MYLO as scum.

I can't offer you much in the way of why Rick claimed cop unless he's also a JOAT like me and a Witch at the same time which seems like a stretch. And to be fair, the neutral mentality of staying alive would require some sort of gambit when you're on the chopping block of lynches and may get axed soon as people look into you. I'm saying he's witch because he's immune and I know he has to be some sort of scum or either he bussed or he's a witch that made a play but flubbed it.
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:17 pm

You don't know he's immune for sure though do you? You said your shot failed. I'd expect you to consider all possibilities throughly, yes?
I'm not sure what you're doing or why you're doing but if your play is similar, and if you're town, why does that say something different about Rick? If it makes as little sense for him to be scum to me as it does for you to be why should we give any damn to what you're telling us right now?

I don't get what you're thinking about with a witch JOAT or whatever. And no not really, like I said if he really wants to get himself out of the noose an important PR and a strong enough wall should've do the job. Neutrals have won before without claiming TI so I don't get what you're saying here.


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby RockFire » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:32 pm

Arc, from what everyone has said already, either Rick is immune or he got Marshalled because nothing else would make sense to have happened. Everyone besides Jerme has checked in and he was okay with being RBed D2 so it doesn't take a genius to see he's clearly not a PR. Ergo, nobody is saying I'm wrong so therefore he must be immune.

Also if you want to not take me at my word about my shot or you think we're both Town, me existing and with as many dead Cits and Max claiming Cit points to only one PR per alignment and me as a backup for all of them. If the sinister presence thing is a Mafia redirector like I presume, then we do not have a framer which means the list doesn't make sense with Rick being a Parity Cop along with me being town.

And honestly I'm saying Witch JOAT because I don't completely understand what he's been doing this whole game since I know he's a liar. Also, I claimed TI as Stalker in GFM Business District and that worked out brilliantly for me and scum then as "confirmed town". Risk v. Reward really. And I can't give you an explanation for why Rick is a liar besides that he has to be from my POV given what I knew about my role and now what I got as my results today. I've been pushing him since he claimed because it didn't make sense to me that he existed while I did.
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:49 pm

RockFire wrote:
Naru2008 wrote:First.

So I was roleblocked last night, and felt a sinister presence.

Interesting night, to say the least, especially with no kills.


Welp, I guess a Mafia redirector exists because that's really the only explanation for this when Poison claims they blocked Met. It was an interesting choice and I want to hear the train of thought that lead to that action. But regardless, the sinister presence must be felt by the person the action is redirected to.

We know they exist for sure since this has come up multiple times. The real issue is if this role exists ad Mafia, then I guess the MH is doing the kills but the fact that the last two days have them absent is a curious mystery unless our protective is Marshal and just super good at their job.


It's not actually this simple. The "presence" was only felt on even nights which I think might be part of the role restriction. The targets were Ender N2 (after the lex lynch) and Naru N4. Those seem ill-intentioned targets to me if they're on the receiving end of a redirection. So it's a fair assumption that this presence is scum. It seems like a weird thing to slap on a witch too but I suppose it's not impossible? There's been examples of that role as mafia in previous games like the original Blazblue for example. But if they're mafia it begs the question too of what happened with the third roleblocker / prankster / mafioso.


Maybe Jerme and I should claim. That leaves everyone except Naru/Met/Ender as outed which I think those three are all nice enough to consider as town already, and leaves all possible pertaining information out in the open. I trust that they'd claim anyway if we went in a direction that is too far off. Lets leave wether they'll claim or not up to them.

Jerme is taking very long to check in. : |

RockFire wrote:Arc, from what everyone has said already, either Rick is immune or he got Marshalled because nothing else would make sense to have happened. Everyone besides Jerme has checked in and he was okay with being RBed D2 so it doesn't take a genius to see he's clearly not a PR. Ergo, nobody is saying I'm wrong so therefore he must be immune.

Also if you want to not take me at my word about my shot or you think we're both Town, me existing and with as many dead Cits and Max claiming Cit points to only one PR per alignment and me as a backup for all of them. If the sinister presence thing is a Mafia redirector like I presume, then we do not have a framer which means the list doesn't make sense with Rick being a Parity Cop along with me being town.

And honestly I'm saying Witch JOAT because I don't completely understand what he's been doing this whole game since I know he's a liar. Also, I claimed TI as Stalker in GFM Business District and that worked out brilliantly for me and scum then as "confirmed town". Risk v. Reward really. And I can't give you an explanation for why Rick is a liar besides that he has to be from my POV given what I knew about my role and now what I got as my results today. I've been pushing him since he claimed because it didn't make sense to me that he existed while I did.


You don't give it a thought of a mafia role or something having interfered with the shot though. Doesn't have to be a town interference. Someone told me that not considering all possibilities is a problem.

I don't follow? There's a dead cop, a living vig, an escort(?) that's two alignments leaving only protective, but there's still four other town slots from my pov (excluding m4x) so thats plenty of room for other power roles.

ok


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:50 pm

three* alignments


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby RockFire » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:02 pm

By the by, Met, Ender, Poison, and TP, what do you think about my Mafia deduction post located here: http://www.blankmediagames.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=88099&start=1675#p2925643

Because it's the only thing that really make sense to me. I personally don't think Max would be scum from claiming Cit so early so would a Mafia of Arc, Jerme, Mela, and Lex make sense? We know the Lex lynch was initiated by Spoiler:
Swordsworth wrote:Lexiam |7| Metrion, TurdPile, Jerme, Veeena, Guzame, Naru2008, enderitem; Jerme |1| PoisonMaid; Naru2008 |5| Arcthurus, Rickdaily12, ObiWan, Lexiam, ???; Not Voting |3| NheroArconix, melanora, Nellyfox


This means from what we know and what I think that Met, TP, Guz, Naru, Ender, and Max all were on this wagon at the end and are either confirmed town or who I believe to be Town while Lex, Rick, Arc, and the Marionette were on Naru so it would be sensible to assume that they're likely scum trying to counterwagon?

Because Max/Arc and Jerme looks sensible to me right now unless I'm going stir crazy somehow.

And Arc, think of the set up. 13V4V1

We know this is heavily townsided and the only reason this is somewhat even is because of both TP's shots hitting Town and Arckas getting Modkilled. The two flipped Mafia roles are more or less standard. We know head must be immune to invests from Gent's card. We know that a Witch exists. We know the evil prescence is scum aligned so it's likely Mafia. Maybe that role redirects even nights and odds pranks? Because that's the only way to account for the extra RB on Obi. This would mean:

Scum:
Hustler
Consort
GF
Even redirecter/odd Prankster

Witch


Having more PRs than the 6 of a Cop, Vig, JOAT, Escort, Inno Child, and a Protective seems like it'd lean way too heavily favored for town in an already town sided alignment set up.
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:13 pm

If you read my posts by that time you'll see I thought Lex was getting majority lynched anyway so there wasn't really a point in voting him straight up. Save for the actual vote I'd say M4x and I presented roughly the same amount of resistance to it.

Even redirecter/Odd prankster is interesting, but Obi claimed roleblocked by night 2 which is even as I expect you know. And there was no block N3 anyway other than nhero it seems so coupled with nothing unusual N1 either there's no evidence towards an odd prankster actually.

And there's like three more PRs (at least) if you take ender/met/naru softs at face value which I do.


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:18 pm

RockFire wrote:I personally don't think Max would be scum from claiming Cit so early

Your explanation for this hasn't really been stellar either y'know. Of course there's no invests in a closed game so any scum could claim citizen reliably, not just godfather.


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby Arcthurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:29 pm

i cant believe you went to sleep and left me hanging here
rude


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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby PoisonMaid » Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:12 am

RockFire wrote:It's time for thinking walls everyone.

There's 10 of us left alive so I'm just going to try and figure this out. I'll leave out Rick for obvious reasons.

Me, TP, and Posion have claimed and I don't think Posion is lying because that's a dumb.

That leaves 6 people where the Mafia are in:

Met
Arc
Ender
Jerme
Max
Naru

Narrowing this down is rather simple because of my checks and interactions.

Met and Ender being Mafia seems super unlikely as I've stated before. Arc and Max cannot be anything but MH. Naru was the counterwagon for scum D2 so he's out.

That only leaves Jerme as the only possibility of being the non invest immune Mafia.

Obviously MH is between Max and Arc.

I don't think Met would bus Consort D2 and I don't think Ender could be anything Mafia related at all this game. Anyone have anything to add to this?

I believe ender could flip the neutral role or possible townie. I dont know how I feel about him and his posts.
Arc seems to want to be defending Rick but not doing it up front. I feel like Arc and Rick are showing up more as scum to me than anything, which I'm hoping I'm not wrong and surprised to say I trust you more Rock.
I had suspected Jerme in the past, it makes sense with how he posts.
I wouldn't leave naru out of the equation completely...
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Re: 8M | OCTOPATH | Day 5 | Hornburg Ruins

Postby PoisonMaid » Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:19 am

You know, I'm okay with voting Rick. Rock has proved himself to me so far with everything he is saying.
I blocked Met out of pure curiosity and also knowing that I could have been controlled. Which still confuses me as to why Met wasn't RBed and Naru was. I was told I slept peacefully last night, not that I was controlled or anything.
Rick the fact you're still trying to play me off as a possible witch or scum at all bothers me, another person claiming escort argument would've most likely taken place already and I would've been lynched or the other person claiming escort.
This is all ridiculous right now it's literally a Rick vs Rock thing. In all honesty if Rick turns out to be evil, then we can trust Rock. If Rick ends up nice then we fluffed up and Rock is evil. But with all of this constant arguing and Rock never letting up on Rick, I'm supposing either Rock really.. freaking really has a bad gut feeling about him, has some sort of evidence, or he's just pushing something too far and they are both townies. I dont like where Rick's suspisions are going, I feel like earlier on in the game he was doing good and now it's just petty to see his posts and accusations. Which you would think he would drop me as being a witch, honestly it confuses me why he still accuses me as such. I feel like with Rick's posts he's running low on options and throwing stuff out there, now this could be scum about to be found out or.. scum team is super convincing.... or townies are dumb against townies.
I dont know if I'm willing to make another "let's flip the coin and see what happens" lynch. Due to the fact that's what we did to Nhero and got a really bad result.
Mafia could be refraining from kills to raise suspicion on anyone that gets RBed or make us go insane. Which would be a good tactic that we shouldn't ignore, we possibly cannot go off of who is RBed at this point.

Back to the Rick vs Rock thing.
I feel like.. we may have to find an end to this. What is everyone's thought on Rick being scum/townie and What is everyone's thought on Rock being scum/townie?? We need to figure this out.
I thought Rick was townie at first, but as days go by I'm getting a little lost in why I ever thought he was townie and feeling more town come from Rock. Unless they are just both FREAKING TOWN GOING INSANE ON EACH OTHER. I'm going to lose it trying to decifer which one is what.....
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