14E - A Toast to Coolway99 and hippophant (MAFIA WIN)

[realMandingo]

Escort is the last rt - olly just claimed, so might as well do that massclaim

I'm not the escort, I meant that Jen is an escort target not consort target

If you are actually escort there's no point in hiding it now just saying.

But if not, at least this is some info we can go off of. I hope you understand what this implies though.

[non271103]

Olly, who did you roleblocked N1?

Also it's kind of odd to me now that you mention it that no one claimed roleblocked day 2. Or did I miss that too?

You are correct in that.

I will say, however, that not roleblocking day 1 is a valid strategy.

I am of the ones that prefers an escort to roleblock day 1, just to at the very least confirm their existence and narrow down possibilities. If that makes me scummy so be it, that's just my opinion.

I agree, only way it backfires is targeting TI tbh

[realMandingo]

Even if I'm not town the worst I can really be is neutral and why would I do this stuff as an nk

So you're saying you aren't town?

It's like you're trying to bargain for when we find you out.

It's theoretical because I am town

Spoiler:

do you realize what you just wrote

[OllyRenard]

I sp.

I failed you kosmo, forgive me.

w e w what a night.

I was roleblocked, btw ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Escort

Ultiix is town here, I don't see a exe->jester acting like this or a mafia claiming marshal d1 to ml someone

If Ultiix is town, you are saying a Mafia Deception visited Macca N1?

Yes, or consort depending on the other results today

@Ultiix if you are neutral claim

I'm hardclaiming not escort

[xUltiix]

Even if I'm not town the worst I can really be is neutral and why would I do this stuff as an nk

So you're saying you aren't town?

It's like you're trying to bargain for when we find you out.

It's theoretical because I am town

Spoiler:

do you realize what you just wrote

Last time I insinuated someone had an IQ below 90 I received an unofficial warning so I'll refrain from that

[xUltiix]

I sp.

I failed you kosmo, forgive me.

w e w what a night.

I was roleblocked, btw ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Escort

Ultiix is town here, I don't see a exe->jester acting like this or a mafia claiming marshal d1 to ml someone

If Ultiix is town, you are saying a Mafia Deception visited Macca N1?

Yes, or consort depending on the other results today

@Ultiix if you are neutral claim

I'm hardclaiming not escort

I'm not neutral

[The11thdoctor]

maybe im wrong here but jen claimed roleblocked and I didnt see a mafia kill, maybe im just not reading enough into it, like obviously that alone isnt lynch worthy but a note to be made for sure.

Ultiix claims attacked and healed

I must have scrolled over that, this is what I get for doing FM while im tired and distracted.

[xUltiix]

All a vig would get from shooting me would be a broken gun and sadness

[Arckas]

Even if I'm not town the worst I can really be is neutral and why would I do this stuff as an nk

So you're saying you aren't town?

It's like you're trying to bargain for when we find you out.

It's theoretical because I am town

Spoiler:

do you realize what you just wrote

Last time I insinuated someone had an IQ below 90 I received an unofficial warning so I'll refrain from that

:banhammer:

[OllyRenard]

I think while it is important we find the NK we need to lynch a Mafia member today.

If we don't start reducing mafia's numbers now we pretty much have a guaranteed loss.

Lynching NK is better than lynching mafia because it eliminates kpn

[xUltiix]

I think while it is important we find the NK we need to lynch a Mafia member today.

If we don't start reducing mafia's numbers now we pretty much have a guaranteed loss.

Is it just me or does this scream NK

[realMandingo]

I think while it is important we find the NK we need to lynch a Mafia member today.

If we don't start reducing mafia's numbers now we pretty much have a guaranteed loss.

Lynching NK is better than lynching mafia because it eliminates kpn

But then if we don't get mafia or witch tonight or tomorrow don't we auto lose cause of majority?

Let me look at the player count again.

[Arckas]

I think while it is important we find the NK we need to lynch a Mafia member today.

If we don't start reducing mafia's numbers now we pretty much have a guaranteed loss.

Lynching NK is better than lynching mafia because it eliminates kpn

Yeah, but you've got to realize that minimizing kpn won't matter if the mafia start to get an super-majority.

[OllyRenard]

I think while it is important we find the NK we need to lynch a Mafia member today.

If we don't start reducing mafia's numbers now we pretty much have a guaranteed loss.

Is it just me or does this scream NK

I see it

P-edit: if that is the case we are screwed

[non271103]

So we need NK to help us eliminate mafia?

[xUltiix]

We just have to pray the stalker has scum targeted

[realMandingo]

I think while it is important we find the NK we need to lynch a Mafia member today.

If we don't start reducing mafia's numbers now we pretty much have a guaranteed loss.

Is it just me or does this scream NK

I see it

P-edit: if that is the case we are screwed

Wait why do you say that?

[non271103]

Is arso still possible?

[Arckas]

Stalker needs to pray stalker has scum targeted.

Town is not a threat to them. Mafia is the real threat. We're just an unorganized mob who don't know left from right, they're in no danger of being lynched unless by chance.

[realMandingo]

Is arso still possible?

Well if no one dies today or tonight by Stalker it's safe to assume it's neither SK or Stalker. So what does that leave?

[OllyRenard]

I think while it is important we find the NK we need to lynch a Mafia member today.

If we don't start reducing mafia's numbers now we pretty much have a guaranteed loss.

Lynching NK is better than lynching mafia because it eliminates kpn

Yeah, but you've got to realize that minimizing kpn won't matter if the mafia start to get an super-majority.

I see what you mean along with your post about mafia being real threat to them

*snip*
I see it

P-edit: if that is the case we are screwed

Wait why do you say that?

If mafia and witch would gain majority even if lynch nk we still lose if we lynch mafia/witch because of the mafia and stalker kills. We'd have to be lucky and stalker kills off other scum instead town

[Arckas]

Just to reiterate because I read my own post and it doesn't say what I want it to say-

Super-majority - Town included in that super-majority. Unless we're all united under one person, it's going to be easy for mafia to sheep those extra votes they need until the town realizes it's too late.


We can talk about whether we'd lynch mafia or neutral killing all we want, but the fact still remains that we have no one to desperately lynch just yet.

[realMandingo]

Just to reiterate because I read my own post and it doesn't say what I want it to say-

Super-majority - Town included in that super-majority. Unless we're all united under one person, it's going to be easy for mafia to sheep those extra votes they need until the town realizes it's too late.


We can talk about whether we'd lynch mafia or neutral killing all we want, but the fact still remains that we have no one to desperately lynch just yet.

Well, who is confirmed town that we can whisper to/safely rely on? The only people that come to mind would be either of the vigilantes, but they'd have to claim.

[OllyRenard]

vig w/o shots should claim in that scenario

[Arckas]

No one is confirmed.

Good thing you don't need to confirm someone to trust them. Too bad mafia has free kill access to those people anyway. All that means is we got to trust more people then the mafia can kill in a game... without them mafia.


Here is an unpopular opinion- you can't "read" someone in FM anymore. Any reading is based on behavior; a behavior that is already accounted for by the person. Any "read" anybody has is just pure feeling that people excuse as "intuition". Just pure guessing. Sometimes guessing works, which can give the illusion that you had something, but that's all simply confirmation bias. "reading" somebody doesn't actually work.


What do we do then? Let me try to explain. Action

Actions speak louder then words. In FM, actions are actually just everything. The reason I was so confident in Macca was because of his actions. They simply did not align with town, therefore it was my best guess to mafia. Unlike reading, this guesswork actually has correlation to what a mafia member would do and is justified in it's reasoning.

If mafia go the whole game without doing anything, then we can't rely on this. All we can do is hope that a town won't pull a Macca and act like a public disgrace.