[Newcomer FM] NFM11 | Game Over

[Cyantic]

Sorry for my inactivity, I was preoccupied yesterday. I'll almpst certainly make an important post once I get out of school - around eight hours from now.

[Lexiam]

I am too tracking who did what in the game via forum mafia notes program. I only see a few possibilities of Jack claiming to be witched:

1. He is actually witched and is a town member
2. He is actually witch to let the mafia know
3. He is a mafia member trying to let the witch know its safe to control his killings

of course its too early to determine anything until we share our night 1 results and kot comes back from being afk. One thing is clear: Jack is the center of attention to everyone now....

[PokemonKidRyan]

I am too tracking who did what in the game via forum mafia notes program. I only see a few possibilities of Jack claiming to be witched:

1. He is actually witched and is a town member
2. He is actually witch to let the mafia know
3. He is a mafia member trying to let the witch know its safe to control his killings

of course its too early to determine anything until we share our night 1 results and kot comes back from being afk. One thing is clear: Jack is the center of attention to everyone now....

Wowzers Vader. I think those are some good conclusions.
Now.... We know there IS a witch BUT Jack has been the only person to claim to have been witched.
So.... I thing #2 is the least likely. However, we cannot be certain

[MickGalbani]

Mmmm, I'd have to say #2 is unlikely. It would be a fairly large leap of logic for the mafia to assume that the first player claimed witched is actually the witch, and all it would take is one counterclaim to completely screw that up.

#1 of those conclusions is probably the most likely. Mafia would not be telling the witch its safe to control them, that puts their power in the hands of someone that they might not be able to properly communicate with. I've seen the witch basically destroy the mafia singlehandedly in another NFM, so the last thing mafia wants is to complain to the witch that being controlled impedes them. Complaints, from what I recall, sound more like town than scum, which invites further controlling since the witch would want to interfere with town.

[Lexiam]

Its from my thoughts so I do think its something strange

[PokemonKidRyan]

I am too tracking who did what in the game via forum mafia notes program. I only see a few possibilities of Jack claiming to be witched:

1. He is actually witched and is a town member
2. He is actually witch to let the mafia know
3. He is a mafia member trying to let the witch know its safe to control his killings

of course its too early to determine anything until we share our night 1 results and kot comes back from being afk. One thing is clear: Jack is the center of attention to everyone now....

Wowzers Vader. I think those are some good conclusions.
Now.... We know there IS a witch BUT Jack has been the only person to claim to have been witched.
So.... I thing #2 is the least likely. However, we cannot be certain

So..... Based on what we think #1 is the most likely?

[ICECLIMBERS]

I am too tracking who did what in the game via forum mafia notes program. I only see a few possibilities of Jack claiming to be witched:

1. He is actually witched and is a town member
2. He is actually witch to let the mafia know
3. He is a mafia member trying to let the witch know its safe to control his killings

of course its too early to determine anything until we share our night 1 results and kot comes back from being afk. One thing is clear: Jack is the center of attention to everyone now....

Why would a mafia member want the witch to determine who they kill? That's a way to end up being controlled into slaughtering your own teammates.

Anyways Ryan earlier you mentioned the importance of making reads. Do you have anything that you'd like to add since most of your recent posts have been pretty passive.

[Swordsworth]

I'd agree that #2 is the least likely of those conclusions. However, I'd say that #3 doesn't really make sense...of all the possibilities, is that really sensible?

[ICECLIMBERS]

You need to tell me what the "it" is referring to. If it's a witch fakeclaiming witched for themselves, I just think it's unlikely since that'd be a waste of a night action unless he was marshaled away.

And how would Invenio talking a lot translate to an "IC fear?" He posted a lot but like the rest of us there wasn't much substance to his posts given the nature of the D1. You could argue that Cyantic and I are mafia and killed Invenio to not be rude just as you could argue that the newcomers did it.

---
To avoid meta, role distribution is all randomized, but the mafia is statistically likely to have at least one experienced player.

Swords, can you respond to this?

[Swordsworth]

IC fear being "blue name, has played a LOT of games, willing to talk at a decent pace". You're right that both are equally possible, I merely presented the one that seemed more likely in my eyes.

[ICECLIMBERS]

Mmmm, I'd have to say #2 is unlikely. It would be a fairly large leap of logic for the mafia to assume that the first player claimed witched is actually the witch, and all it would take is one counterclaim to completely screw that up.

#1 of those conclusions is probably the most likely. Mafia would not be telling the witch its safe to control them, that puts their power in the hands of someone that they might not be able to properly communicate with. I've seen the witch basically destroy the mafia singlehandedly in another NFM, so the last thing mafia wants is to complain to the witch that being controlled impedes them. Complaints, from what I recall, sound more like town than scum, which invites further controlling since the witch would want to interfere with town.

Usually witched Mafia just lie about their night results so anybody claiming witched is a signal to the witch that they're town. As for complaining, that can be easily forged by either Mafia or a citizen acting as a shield for the power roles.

Wowzers Vader. I think those are some good conclusions.

What makes them good conclusions? It seems to me that it's just a summary of about every possible scenario.

[Lexiam]

It is a summary of every scenario i could think of.

Most of them are unlikey but its possible just a percentage.

[Cyantic]

I'm probably too tired too make a post that makes sense but hey maybe I'll jumpstart discussion

My post here:
Spoiler:

Things happen if you want them to happen imo. I personally don't put too much focus on it. It's best to just let things happen d1.

-img snip-
^ Me waiting for the discussion to begin

Well somebody got restless.

was a joke, but Invenio's response:
Spoiler:

Yup I did. I'm bored. :mrgreen:

Is notable, as it acknowledges that the first post was a joke too when Invenio, as scum, could've easily made some generic towncred-grabbing statement about activity levels. Or Invenio could've interpreted it as an accusation about reversing course and tailor a response based around that.

It would be contradictory since he would be advising the newbies in a joking format, and if you're not shit at being an IC, you should stand by what you say there. AKA irrelevant. You also don't seem to note what you feel exactly about this post, more taking it as 'hey this is something that happened, I'm just going to egregiously point it out'. I honestly couldn't point out what you were hoping to accomplish specifically here and on this post. I get the blanket reason, I just don't see the point of picking this exact post.

Slept peacefully.

ICE on pg 3 with his comment about Invenio was him joking, right? Or did I not follow that exchange well enough?

ICE confirmed it wasn't actually a joke when I'd interpreted it as such. I'm assuming from a town standpoint it's just a poor choice of discussion starting but with them being an IC I'm not terribly sure I believe it tbh, they were honestly looking waaay too much into things. Always a possibility that they could be scum and went after Invenio to show some sort of townbuddying? This isn't a strong read but it's something if there aren't any important night results to work off of today I guess? Though the fact that when asked if they were joking they could have just said yes to retain towncred makes me think it's more likely to just be a silly thought from them and mafia might have just wanted to put the spotlight on ICE by killing Invenio.

It's also probably not the best to completely gloss over Jacko being witched either. There's always a chance of them being witch and putting off the first night to clear themselves, if not still a chance of them being scum and loosely establishing contact with the witch. But if they're town I'm assuming the witching didn't do anything too drastic if they are a PR considering there was no elaboration.

*yawn* just woke up ill be more useful later

Could you elaborate more specifically on why mafia would want to put ICE in the light by killing Invenio? I'm not sure that's a rational train of thought.

Confirmation, while powerful, is not something I think that can be justified to that length of not using your night action. It's a possibility, I suppose.

Putting all possibilities on the table, puma? I like it.

Define like it. Town or simply like the idea?

[ICECLIMBERS]

snip

It would be contradictory since he would be advising the newbies in a joking format, and if you're not shit at being an IC, you should stand by what you say there. AKA irrelevant. You also don't seem to note what you feel exactly about this post, more taking it as 'hey this is something that happened, I'm just going to egregiously point it out'. I honestly couldn't point out what you were hoping to accomplish specifically here and on this post. I get the blanket reason, I just don't see the point of picking this exact post.

Most notable thing to me after a couple of pages; once no discussion about it could be generated I decided to not continue it.
And I did have a faint townread on Invenio from that, so I don't see where the "you should stand by what you say there" is coming from.

Could you elaborate more specifically on why mafia would want to put ICE in the light by killing Invenio? I'm not sure that's a rational train of thought.

I personally don't see any relation between the night kill and my comment.

[Cyantic]

snip

It would be contradictory since he would be advising the newbies in a joking format, and if you're not shit at being an IC, you should stand by what you say there. AKA irrelevant. You also don't seem to note what you feel exactly about this post, more taking it as 'hey this is something that happened, I'm just going to egregiously point it out'. I honestly couldn't point out what you were hoping to accomplish specifically here and on this post. I get the blanket reason, I just don't see the point of picking this exact post.

Most notable thing to me after a couple of pages; once no discussion about it could be generated I decided to not continue it.
And I did have a faint townread on Invenio from that, so I don't see where the "you should stand by what you say there" is coming from.

Could you elaborate more specifically on why mafia would want to put ICE in the light by killing Invenio? I'm not sure that's a rational train of thought.

I personally don't see any relation between the night kill and my comment.

'stand by what you say there' = giving advice to newcomers about the game works (which he did) = Invenio, not you.
You also don't seem to note = you. I wasn't seeing anything that hallmarked a particular lean either way in that post.

The second part I'm not sure what you're getting at. I'm asking puma, not you there..?

[ICECLIMBERS]

Lean was partially implied, but obscured since I was pretty tired when I made that post.
--
I simply wanted to offer my own commentary on the matter.

[mmss5joker]

So is jack the only one claimed to be witched?

[destawaits]

So is jack the only one claimed to be witched?

Since, kotkowski has not replied yet, we don't know for sure.

[destawaits]

So is jack the only one claimed to be witched?

Since, kotkowski has not replied yet, we don't know for sure.

I'd assume that kotkowski slept peacefully and Jack is really a townie who got witched. This is the possibility with the most likelihood.

[Cyantic]

Kotkowski would almost certainly not claimed to be witched if it was not the truth, and vice versa. They would lock each other into a counterclaim of each other. One scum flip and one town flip, hardly beneficial. Barring an absolutely farcical event, like two town claimants, of course... which is sadly more common then what we would hope for.

[pumacatrun2]

Could you elaborate more specifically on why mafia would want to put ICE in the light by killing Invenio? I'm not sure that's a rational train of thought.

I'm saying that if ICE were mafia they made a post supporting Invenio (a very towngrabby, awkward post) and may have killed them in order to show a sort of townbuddying. As I said, this was a weak read and just something to kickstart discussion with but I still stand by the fact that ICE's post shouldn't be ignored as it's...really unnatural to me. Even if it was just to start discussion, they were reading waaay too much into things and I don't think practically townreading someone for a post is something that can be glossed over as "topic starter", it was their opinion and a poorly backed up one.

[pumacatrun2]

Puma may hold their suspicions but I really don't value a large chunk of Day 1 chat to be of any real meaning to the game.

Then what makes it different to D2 if nobody has amazing TI night actions etc. and can proclaim who scum is? Shall we just pretend that today is useless too and turn it back into ToS where only claims and night actions matter? Sure, D1 may have a bunch of fluff but the only reason Day 2 can be more productive with night actions that help is reads, including D1. If you don't want to discuss D1, you're saying you want this to continue being a flufffest/thread for mutes and that's kind of anti-town.

[Cyantic]

Could you elaborate more specifically on why mafia would want to put ICE in the light by killing Invenio? I'm not sure that's a rational train of thought.

I'm saying that if ICE were mafia they made a post supporting Invenio (a very towngrabby, awkward post) and may have killed them in order to show a sort of townbuddying. As I said, this was a weak read and just something to kickstart discussion with but I still stand by the fact that ICE's post shouldn't be ignored as it's...really unnatural to me. Even if it was just to start discussion, they were reading waaay too much into things and I don't think practically townreading someone for a post is something that can be glossed over as "topic starter", it was their opinion and a poorly backed up one.

Mhm.

In this post, you seem to be having two running tangents of thought. One is at the beginning, the first sentence, and the second is the end. One highlights the earlier concept you touch on here (which upon further reading, seems to reflect both sides you've presented here - but I was getting a stronger feeling you were running with 1# and go for a stronger leader here on 2#) and two seems to run on a bit of a different parallel.

First, one, why would killing ICE disseminate that following train of thought? It's not one I would broach. Analyzing their post doesn't necessarily point out anything of significance - I'm of the belief that he could have done that to anyone. Nor does he have the reason or motives to side with Invenio at this point, not knowing how he will play out the situation in the future, making him an almost worthless choice if he tried to play that up.

Two seems to be the later opinion and one I share the sentiment of. The post is maladroit which ICE seems to be alright with waving away. I am cautious, however, on going too far since he played up the same act in a previous game.

I'd like for you to clarify which of these two options you're trying to convey, Puma, if you'd please.

[Cyantic]

At the earliest, no one can be prodded for about three more hours, if I am correct in my mathing skills.

[pumacatrun2]

Could you elaborate more specifically on why mafia would want to put ICE in the light by killing Invenio? I'm not sure that's a rational train of thought.

I'm saying that if ICE were mafia they made a post supporting Invenio (a very towngrabby, awkward post) and may have killed them in order to show a sort of townbuddying. As I said, this was a weak read and just something to kickstart discussion with but I still stand by the fact that ICE's post shouldn't be ignored as it's...really unnatural to me. Even if it was just to start discussion, they were reading waaay too much into things and I don't think practically townreading someone for a post is something that can be glossed over as "topic starter", it was their opinion and a poorly backed up one.

Mhm.

In this post, you seem to be having two running tangents of thought. One is at the beginning, the first sentence, and the second is the end. One highlights the earlier concept you touch on here (which upon further reading, seems to reflect both sides you've presented here - but I was getting a stronger feeling you were running with 1# and go for a stronger leader here on 2#) and two seems to run on a bit of a different parallel.

First, one, why would killing ICE disseminate that following train of thought? It's not one I would broach. Analyzing their post doesn't necessarily point out anything of significance - I'm of the belief that he could have done that to anyone. Nor does he have the reason or motives to side with Invenio at this point, not knowing how he will play out the situation in the future, making him an almost worthless choice if he tried to play that up.

Two seems to be the later opinion and one I share the sentiment of. The post is maladroit which ICE seems to be alright with waving away. I am cautious, however, on going too far since he played up the same act in a previous game.

I'd like for you to clarify which of these two options you're trying to convey, Puma, if you'd please.

As for the first one it was me pointing out possibilities, making a weak read on what could have happened to get discussion moving about something, and I was using my second point to back it up. Overall though I generally just don't understand their reasoning for such overanalysis (though I mean hey I'm sort of doing that right now myself a bit) it's just I feel their choice of a townread on someone for not doing a wrong thing when I don't think anybody scum or town would have thought to answer differently as it was clearly a joke is awkward. Overall it's my second point that I'm more concerned about, although I don't know anything about ICE's meta so if they are known to make these sort of posts I'll cut them some slack, I just feel that dropping it will lead to the regular boring silence and I want to scumhuuuuuuunt because otherwise this is gonna get boring They aren't necessarily a scum read or anything from the post but I'm not exactly wanting to town read them because of it either, felt like a bunch of forced fluff for towncred.