SFM13: Co5 - Game Over - Town, Executioner, Phantom Win

[Latewood]

Test, I want you to answer me one question. All I want is the answer. Are you going to jail Kirize tonight?

No I'm not and there's a reason for it.

I personally believe that the other Town Killing (hopefully a Vigilante) will target Kirize tonight. As a jailor, I'm meant to be getting role-claims from everyone at night and wasting it on a scummy player will just make the Vigilante (if there is one) go what do I do now? shoot the survivor and waste one of my shots?

Also about that Hardclaiming issue, I want everyone to answer this question.

Do you think Kirize should hard-claim? Why or why not?

If he wants to play VI as part of some strategy let him. I think Hardclaiming by anyone at this point is not really helpful when we have a witch in play.

The survivor doesn't pose a threat to town at this point because the only way that they could hurt us is by voting with the mafia to overthrow the council. So as long as Lady is dealt with before we reach the point where the mafia would have the numbers to make a vote like that we really don't need to worry about her.

Obviously, he should hard claim. He isn't going to though, and it doesn't matter if he does. It's clear that none of us will believe he's a town role at this point, and with good reason.

But, as you admit none of us will believe he's a town role at this point, then why should they hardclaim? What's the motivation? So we can all go 'Sure, you're a *Fill in the Blank*' All it will do is give another target to the witch/mafia. Why not let the council decide what to do with the people who are scummy, again it's the council that will be voting and they have plenty of targets to look at all ready, I think Kirize will either start acting like town or they won't and a hardclaim isn't going to do anything to get anyone to think that he's protown. If anything I think his hardclaim would be seen as being scummy because it would just derail any productive scum hunting as we all start arguing about the legitimacy of their claim.

As I already told you tonight and said it again today, everyone and their mother are reading kirize as jester/phantom, I just re-read his ISO and if I was a day-vig I would shoot him rn without hardclaim. Anyway yeah he should hardclaim, but I doubt I am gonna believe him, that's not just a case of being scummy, he has acted anti-town without even bothering to hide it.

Again, you get more flies with honey than vinegar. Why should he claim when you tell him it doesn't even matter what he says? It's like telling someone that you want them to apologize to you so you can not accept their apology.

Call me crazy but I'm not so on board with this idea of hard claims at the end of every day. First, everyone is going to claim town, regardless of whether they are town or not. We have 19 players alive, that's not enough to discount any claims via PoE. Second, provable claims will expose those townies to scum and we already have a jailor to be protected. Third, if a claim isn't provable, what then?

I'm with you Hawkeye, I don't understand the push to hardclaim on Day 2 with a confirmed witch. It just seems odd. I pointed this out when the first hardclaim happened and I even thought it may be a ploy to start the landslide of hardclaims that we see going on.

I also want to point out that I saw/see Kirize as null/town up to this point, I think his behavior is erratic, but I stand by the point that they have time to 'shape up' and start acting more townlike or letting us in on their gambit at any point.

It's a forgone conclusion by now that Kirize is scum. As far as I see it, we're only making one potential town hardclaim. And yeah, it would be a difficult decision for us to make, but it's better to be forced to make a decision than lynching without a claim, unless you think that we should lynch Kirize, which I strongly disagree with.

When did it become a forgone conclusion that Kirize is scum? Oh, here he goes...

It's come to this. You guys want me to hardclaim? Fine.

I am the Phantom!

[ladd]

I already explained why lat, it did not matter to me but the council/vigilante may have different opinions. Anyway he hardclaimed so yeah..also how could you believe he was town after what he did.
@varanus no I meant outside this game, I guess I was wrong.

[murat1996]

I swear, if I am lynchced, I will take test as my master.

No. You will not

[ladd]

Even if you do take testa ad master it's still pretty much useless and to a certain degree even risky to lynch you.

[ladd]

Yeah but we can just shoot you while you perform the ritual and not waste a Lynch. We need information, and lynching you really does not give us any.

[cmitc1]

Yeah but we can just shoot you while you perform the ritual and not waste a Lynch. We need information, and lynching you really does not give us any.

Because there's a confirmed vigilante.

You seem to be pushing very hard to be lynched.........

I am starting to doubt your claim of being a phantom, tbh.

[LadyAnnabelle]

@Hawkeye i DID vest last night, & lokiben is not scum, he has a good town read in my eyes.

[murat1996]

Well Kirize, there is no point in fighting it. No one wants to kill you, so just leave buddy.

[murat1996]

Well Kirize, there is no point in fighting it. No one wants to kill you, so just leave buddy.

Because you speak for the council.

Stop being so fool of yourself man, your leaking badly.

[Lokiben]

I've not made an FR post yet, and I realize in hindsight that this was a mistake. There's a lot of people I haven't paid much attention to when I probably should have been, and I'm going to try to correct that before the day ends tomorrow, and flip through some ISOs. Segaco, cmitc, Kmenx, and Latewood come to mind.

[testaccount1234]

Time to read the thread.

Spoiler:

Even if you do take testa ad master it's still pretty much useless and to a certain degree even risky to lynch you.

An unkillable lookout isn't a bad thing - ever.

It's also an advantage with both janitor and arsonist.

However, a phantom cannot watch over his own master. So how would that help me?

I would prefer a good defence to a hard claim. If there is to be a hard claim, it should be accompanied by a defence. I'd rather avoid outing say, a vigilante, because we insist on a hard claim.

Actually, I just want a good defence. If the person we're pushing for a hard-claim is truly a vigilante, then what will that person do?

You're right, we should expect a good defense. But we should still expect a hard claim. Again, we should be able to make a choice regarding a vigilante hard claim, and whether or not they are worth lynching, than lynching without a claim, and then watching that person flip vigilante or otherwise.

I think confirming the existence of the vigilante will be bad, if we need the vig to claim to be another role, such as the veteran later to deter the witch.

Why should we make a choice regarding if a vigilante should claim? The obvious answer is no. If there is a vigilante, I'd rather them not claim. Besides, all of us shouldn't be hard-claiming this early. Seriously.

Also, in your next post, you say that vigilante should claim something like Veteran. That's a bad move because there might be escorts that

It's come to this. You guys want me to hardclaim? Fine.

I am the Phantom!

Okay, would've wanted you to not hard-claim since now everyone doesn't want to lynch or kill you (or in Varanus's case, waste a night to ensure that Kirize loses).

If vigilante is claimed by someone under FoS do you really want to leave them alive to be the witch's plaything? I feel like you're tunnelling here on needing a hard claim without addressing the concerns I'm putting forward.

I'm going to have to side on RHawkeye here. I'm writing some notes down as I read each individual post and I found their "choice about vigilante" scenario a bit suspect. Almost like they're fluffing.

Call me crazy but I'm not so on board with this idea of hard claims at the end of every day. First, everyone is going to claim town, regardless of whether they are town or not. We have 19 players alive, that's not enough to discount any claims via PoE. Second, provable claims will expose those townies to scum and we already have a jailor to be protected. Third, if a claim isn't provable, what then?

The hardclaim thing is more to not risk lynching town powers/confirmable town ( now that jailor revealed that's less of a concern ), I'd rather have town exposed to scum than town dead, don't you agree? If a claim is not provable they either get lynched by the council or we exe/shot them if we believe they are scum, easy.

If town is exposed the scum, they're dead anyways. We should only hard-claim if it's a confirmable role however we need to take the issues of the Town Protectives. Who will they protect? Me or the other town one? Having more people hard-claim as confirmable town is pretty dumb considering we might not even have a Town Protective.

[Mindslayer]

if kirize is the jester, its synonymous to a mislynch. lets not do that. my top lynch is birdy due to many posts like "guys, post more"

[Jfire]

Okay sorry guys, but I'm going to ask to be replaced, I don't have time for this when I'm wrapping up my semester.

Can I ask to be replaced as soon as this day ends? (Or just now?)

Let my replacement live another day please council.

Just let them prove me.

[Jfire]

Okay sorry guys, but I'm going to ask to be replaced, I don't have time for this when I'm wrapping up my semester.

Can I ask to be replaced as soon as this day ends? (Or just now?)

Let my replacement live another day please council.

Just let them prove me.

(hey council, here's another five day's worth of discussion time, if the last replacement wringer was anything else to go by)

And yeah, here's all the posts, because there's no one else posting and I want people talking. We've stalled and we only have a day left.

Jfire, before you peace out, could you post your top three scum?

I haven't been paying attention.

But

1. The survivor claim
2. Anyone who on day one started screaming SCUM SCUM for the first words someone posted.

[Mindslayer]

if kirize is the jester, its synonymous to a mislynch. lets not do that. my top lynch is birdy due to many posts like "guys, post more"

Lynching Jester isn't always a mislynch. One time in ToS, a Serial Killer was undetected and I was like the only person who saw their scumslip. I claimed roleblocked and then said that the SK was an SK. They saw that as a scum slip and lynched me, of course the SK voted as well, and I haunted him. Won the game for town.

Also, I'm not a Jester. I'm a phantom.

a jester sends a list to iggy with a list. whoever's the most top on the list that's town is killed. sounds like a mislynch to me

[Varanus]

Problem is, I haven't been paying attention to the game at all. That's what made the game enjoyable - I got to be the scummiest piece of shit I the world and get paid for it.

This is why I want the jailer to execute him. He simply doesn't deserve to have any chance at victory. As far as I'm concerned, you're 100% scum, even as NB.

Also, I'd be careful with the Jfire and parich lynches. They are prime targets for mislynch. It is for this reason I would prefer having Kmenx or dota lynched.

[LadyAnnabelle]

I say we give Kirize the lynch, an undying lookout is good

[LadyAnnabelle]

Yo Council! Lynch Kirize today, please? Would benefit alot of others~

[LadyAnnabelle]

Moons Idea of using jester to find out scum is good and all BUT if a Tpro or TK dies due to that we would be in really deep trouble so lynching Kirzie is a big no no, it better to kill them in the night. Also due to Jailer being out in the open all the other potential townies would be unprotected which is real bad because scum would avoid jailer thinking that he would be protected and killing the other potential townies is better.

now, why is lynching Kirize a no-no? would that mean your Town?

[LadyAnnabelle]

What do we do now? i can see we have alot to do, but, whats our main goal for today?

[ladd]

Our main goal for today is finding a lynch target, pari kirize and jfire are all a no for me. Dota can be an option, I have read through their posts and they have been really scummy. But i have never payed a full game with them so IDk. Rhawkeye is another option if we want information and a good chance at gettimg scum but i am probably the only one who thinks so. Sorry for being inactive but it was the weekend.

[LadyAnnabelle]

i say we kill dota, but let the jailor kill someone else, and not Kirize.

[RHawkeye]

Moon so you want to go ahead with a plan that may or may not out one scum let alone a lot of them even though it is likely to get TPro or TK or even TP killed? Okay your wish *shrugs*

This is fear mongering. Why are you so insistent it's a TK or a TP that will die?

Ladd, I'm still waiting for you to post your arguments against me. I can hardly defend myself against your accusations if there's no substance to them.

Phantom!Kirize serving test would be endlessly useful. Jester!Kirize has no reason to be honest with us about who they would haunt.

[ladd]

Having done some re-reading, I have a slight mafia read on Parich right now.

TI softing under the spoiler, which by itself can just be a newbie town mistake.




Then we have this post. The first TI soft from Parich was already posted at this point, so this can't be a cit soft. What is the motivation behind Parich posing this question? I believe Parich is concerned about a cit discovering Hip's role and being able to use that knowledge against them - Parich may be the janitor. I don't believe Parich is a TI, I believe they were sheeping murat's TI soft, possibly to use it as a counterclaim.

Parich also had a weird quasi-push on murat over the exam they mentioned which I don't see as town-motivated, and it looks like Parich is trying to cast suspicion on murat without outright accusing them. A sew the seeds then sit back approach. That said, this could still be a S v S interaction.

Parich has been acting scummy, and if they were town or neutral I think there would be more people looking to get the spotlight on them than there currently is. I think Parich could be a good jail target tonight, or for an escort to roleblock.

Writing a post on Kirize next.

This post just feels like you want to set up a mislynch on someone you know it's easy to ( no offense pari ), first you say it may be a newbie mistake and then you say it may be part of a plan,plus you are reading too much in a simple question imo. with the cit softclaim. I just think you are smarter than that and that was an attempt to get pari rbd, jailed or lynched cause you yourself know that they are TI. If I turn out to be wrong about pari, welp you can tell me I suck, but i am pretty positive they are town.

On Kirize:

Spoiler: Honestly Kirize puzzled me coming into d2, and I did put a lot of thought into my response after the fishing accusation. Kirize is familiar enough with FM to know reporting in after a night is standard behaviour. Not reporting in was obviously a calculated decision, as was the accusation of fishing. Now what was the motivation behind that decision? Note that Kirize was behaving pretty standard, up until I posed the question about them sleeping peacefully.

Why would a neutral behave as Kirize did?
As a witch, executioner, bomber, survivor, amnesiac, or NK, this would draw unnecessary attention to themselves when they could just report a standard night result and stay off the radar.
As a phantom, it relies too much on the existence of a vigilante, since scum aren't going to want to kill someone that will be lynched before they are.
Now, there is an argument to be made for this being a jester ploy, but I don't think that's what's going on here.

Why would a mafia member behave as Kirize did?
I would say it makes slightly more sense for mafia!Kirize to make this play than neutral!Kirize. Kirize informs their fellow mafia members of the play, they bus Kirize and get town cred. This is still a bit odd though because mafia essentially lose one member to gain some town cred on their other members, which I don't think is a great strat.

Why would a townie behave as Kirize did?
It's a reaction test. Kirize's accusation of fishing initially reaction tested me. Not defending themselves when further accused gives us lots of information to look at and analyse. I think this makes the most sense of all the available options. That said, if Kirize is town, I would expect them to change their behaviour during d3 at the latest.

So there you can see why I think Kirize is most likely to flip town before mafia, and mafia before neutral.

The reason I asked everyone what scum they thought Kirize would flip was to see how people were analysing the situation. This list may be useful if we end up seeing Kirize's flip.

Birdy reads Kirize as jester or arsonist.
Kmenx reads Kirize as jester or witch.
Parich reads Kirize as an immune neutral or mafia.
dota reads Kirize as jester.
moonbird reads Kirize as town or neutral.
cmit reads Kirize as neutral or mafia.
Varanus reads Kirize as phantom.
Anon reads Kirize as phantom.
Lokiben reads Kirize as phantom.

Your read on kirize was strange, why did you think that was a big reaction test?

[RHawkeye]

This post just feels like you want to set up a mislynch on someone you know it's easy to ( no offense pari ), first you say it may be a newbie mistake and then you say it may be part of a plan,plus you are reading too much in a simple question imo. with the cit softclaim. I just think you are smarter than that and that was an attempt to get pari rbd, jailed or lynched cause you yourself know that they are TI. If I turn out to be wrong about pari, welp you can tell me I suck, but i am pretty positive they are town.

I said by itself it could be a newbie mistake, but taking their other posts into account lead me to believe they had other motivations. I don't believe Parich is a TI at all because of how they softed the claim (completely sheeping murat's exact same soft). I don't see that kind of soft as town motivated. I see it as laying down the foundations for a counterclaim. What reason is there for a townie to sheep a soft like that? Why are you so certain they are town? I have also pointed out how Parich's aggression earlier in d2 is uncharacteristic of their play when they've flipped town.

Your read on kirize was strange, why did you think that was a big reaction test?

Because Kirize knows how to play FM, and the fishing accusation felt like bait. Choosing between an obvious jester ploy and a reaction test, I felt it was more likely they were doing the latter, particularly given their standard play up until that point. Like I said, it made no sense as a play for most of the neutral roles, and similarly for mafia it sacrificed too much for little gain. How does believing Kirize was reaction testing make me scummy? Do you not think I would have pressured them to get a mislynch if I was scum, rather than immediately dropping the subject when accused of fishing?

What scum exactly do you believe I am? You don't have to give me a specific role, but an alignment at least would be nice.