VFM71 | Light Game - The End | [Heretic Victory]

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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby UzayAltay » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:19 pm

P=Possibility of Flake turning out Mafia
(Or any Martyr claim , I am now making The Math of when We should lynch a Martyr claim at Day 1 )

Scum:
A) We lynched them , 100% chance of hitting scum.
B) We lynched Outside of them, assuming an ideal scenario which PR cop We Dont lynch, Because they just claim If necessary ( remember This is D1 ) , 2/11 scum 2/11 Martyr 7/11 citizen

Town: A)We lynched them, martyr 100% Martyr
B) Lynched outside, 3/11 scum 1/11 Martyr 7/11 citizen

Now, probability of winning of Each is symbolized with S, M, C

A= PxS + (1-P)M
B= P/11 (2S + 2M + 7C) + (1-P)/11 ( 3S+ M +7C )
For following A , We search for A-B > 0
PS+M -PM -2PS/11 -2PM/11 - 7PC/11 -3S/11 -M/11 -7C/11 +3PS/11 +PM/11 + 7PC/11 >0
P(12S/11 -12M/11) + (10M/11- 3S/11 -7C/11)>0
12P(S-M)+ 7(M-C)+3(M-S)>0

Well, for not making This A mess, I'm making an assumption and M is 8v3 with one IC, S is 9v2 , C is 8v3 with no IC, mountainous. (Yeah I know that's not The best estimate but It's best I can calculate atm )

Well , This Will Take some time . I suggest to not Click Spoiler below Because it is literally me Waiting my time with calculating it.
(I remember seeing A similar table on another site, though I Dont bother looking there as well and it was not including ones with IC as I remember ) Spoiler: 2v1: 1/3
3v2: 2/15
4v3:3/70
4v1:4/5*1/3+1/5=7/15
5v2:5/7*2/15+2/7+7/15=8/21
6v3: 2/3*3/70+1/3*8/21=2/70+8/63=98/630=7/45
6v1: 6/7*7/15+1/7=19/35
7v2: 2/9*19/35 + 7/9*8/21=(114+280)/945=394/945
8v1: 8/9*19/35+1/9=3/5


8v3 (C) : 8/11*7/45+3/11*394/945 =~ 0.227
7+ICv3 (M) : 7/10*7/45+3/10*394/945 =~0.234
9v2 (S) : 2/11*3/5+9/11*394/945 =~0.450

Well I need (C-M) and (S-M) values.

C-M=~-0.007
S-M=~ 0.216

2.592 P + 0.049 -0.648>0
P>0.599/2.592 =~ 23.6%

Yeah I know that isnt exactly A perfect calculation (I was expecting A lower percentage, that Also probably means I either make a mistake in calculation , my expectations were wrong or sth Like that )

TBH that took that much time that I forgot What was The original point I was planning to make So whatever, Let This stay there.
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby CheezePie » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:22 pm

omg please no maths please i will do whatever you want, here ill join your contest thing: 33.333333%
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby TheDebil » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:23 pm

CheezePie wrote:omg please no maths please i will do whatever you want, here ill join your contest thing: 33.333333%

i also hate maths i like you
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby kosmo16 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:26 pm

Hellosither wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:
CheezePie wrote:aight... for now,
/vote kosmo
I don't like their reactions/posts on hello(flake?)'s plan


If I were scum I would encourage Town to follow it. But because it is bad, I have to react.

or it's good and you're wolf trying to get town to not follow it, which would make sense considering your lack of reason

but considering you're this adamant about it i'll give you the BOTD and say you're misjudging the utility gained from an early massclaim here


There is none. I told you that there is much more sense in massclaiming provided that we would like to lynch a martyr. If scum would try to bait martyrs out, they would sacrafice a single member for having a massclaim. I provided this explenation, no idea why you don't get it.
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby cob709 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:38 pm

We should lynch martyrs
Or we can do it tomorrow. But don't plan lynches tomorrow.

if wagon today, then not wagon tomorrow
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby UzayAltay » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:45 pm

:twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

Also, I learnt I am not one of dota's favorite players :/

Also I didnt make maths, that cannot be considered as A Math when I Cut it short in A wrong way , make wording mistakes etc . It's a calculation, at best.

Like What I should have done is making a pros cons list

pros: We either lynch a scum, out a scum, or decide scum's nightkill
cons: If we lynch town We lynch a PR

Wait Wait I am dumb
I calculated it with assuming Flake hit a town with their Check
Let me Do that part of Math again
0.234*8/12+0.227*1/12+3/12*394/945 =~0.279
(Not-NKed town, NKed town, Mafia )

S-M=0.171
M-C=0.052
That went into approximately P>0.149/2.052 =~7.3%

So The question is whether I think Flake is likelier to be scum Than that
That percentage make More sense in my head, though I'll still Check my calculation again at The morning

I can
/vote Hellosither
For now.
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby CheezePie » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:29 pm

I'm going to sleep, my brain is dying, my vote is staying on kosmo yesyes.

some extra thoughts mmm:
uzay: the LAMISW thing was weird, I'm mostly left confused by their posts and this statement doesn't sit well with me
UzayAltay wrote:Oh no I am at L5 should I claim ? /s


bottlenose:
Bottlenose wrote:cheeze is villagery yes

uzay's entrance was weird but im kinda over it

Bottlenose wrote:gut says uzay is a villager but im not gonna stop a wagon on them for raisins

being on the fence about uzay, not sure if this means anything

im tired goodnight
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby TripleHaven » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:51 pm

cob709 wrote:We should lynch martyrs
Or we can do it tomorrow. But don't plan lynches tomorrow.

if wagon today, then not wagon tomorrow
genius cob

what does this post me
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby Huachimingo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:40 pm

Hello sounds like a good lynch if we have no one else who is more suspicious.
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby kosmo16 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:45 pm

Huachimingo wrote:Hello sounds like a good lynch if we have no one else who is more suspicious.


Being stupid /= being scum
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby Huachimingo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:52 pm

kosmo16 wrote:
Huachimingo wrote:Hello sounds like a good lynch if we have no one else who is more suspicious.


Being stupid /= being scum

No i mean because by lynching him at least we can reveal someone's alignment. It's better than a shot in the dark if you ask me.
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby Fenraiser » Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:00 pm

Current Vote Count
Player Votes Voters
  # Votes Until Majority


Not Voting (4): cob709, ejjinami, huachimingo, 3cheersforidiots

Day 1 ends on

Last edited by Fenraiser on Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby LOLingHyena » Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:00 pm

Hellosither wrote:but yes let's keep thinking that lynching martyrs is a +ve strategy when there isn't a proven existence of a wolf in the martyr claims yes yes very good

I feel like you intentionally type out "+ve" in spite of the fact that "ev+" is the correct term just to troll people. Is that accurate?

--------------

Huachimingo wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:
Huachimingo wrote:Hello sounds like a good lynch if we have no one else who is more suspicious.


Being stupid /= being scum

No i mean because by lynching him at least we can reveal someone's alignment. It's better than a shot in the dark if you ask me.

Why is Hello scummy from your perspective? And if you can't answer that, how is yeeting them any different than yeeting someone at random? :P

--------------

UzayAltay wrote::twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

Also, I learnt I am not one of dota's favorite players :/

Don't worry. You're one of MY favorite players, especially because you do stuff like this:
UzayAltay wrote:I can
/vote Hellosither
For now.

I almost want to stop calling you scum because of it, lol.

----------------

cob709 wrote:Okay time to do smart strats because im smart.

Lynch Martyr D1
genius


cob709 wrote:We should lynch martyrs
Or we can do it tomorrow. But don't plan lynches tomorrow.

if wagon today, then not wagon tomorrow
genius cob

This person is frozen, too, by the way, but in less than a NAI way then the other person I called NAI.
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby LOLingHyena » Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:03 pm

TripleHaven wrote:
cob709 wrote:We should lynch martyrs
Or we can do it tomorrow. But don't plan lynches tomorrow.

if wagon today, then not wagon tomorrow
genius cob

what does this post me

I give you permission to push on Cob if you want, by the way. I'm getting the sense that you want to. :P If not, I'm probably gonna start pushing you.
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
milte345 wrote:A hyena can't be a wolf because it is in fact a hyena
Ez.
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby cob709 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:30 pm

Hellosither wrote:does anyone want to come up with an actual valid argument for why a suitable massclaim d1 is not a good idea

else i'm going to assume that all the villagers in this game do not want higher chances of winning

but yes let's keep thinking that lynching martyrs is a +ve strategy when there isn't a proven existence of a wolf in the martyr claims yes yes very good

you dont seem to understand the game

if massclaim d1 everyone is gonna claim the exact same thing we go will go nowhere
if we lynch martyr d1 then they can expose someone
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby Huachimingo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:36 pm

LOLingHyena wrote:
Huachimingo wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:
Huachimingo wrote:Hello sounds like a good lynch if we have no one else who is more suspicious.


Being stupid /= being scum

No i mean because by lynching him at least we can reveal someone's alignment. It's better than a shot in the dark if you ask me.

Why is Hello scummy from your perspective? And if you can't answer that, how is yeeting them any different than yeeting someone at random? :P
.

I actually think he's probably town because it' d be weird if he's still alive tomorrow after claiming, so I don't think mafia would do that.

As for the second part. If we lynch someone at random, chances are we'll hit town. With Hello we have a guaranteed benefit. If he's mafia then good, if he's martyr at least we get someone else confirmed.
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby dota2reporter » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:57 pm

why is flake getting voted lol he claimed martyr
realised something and it's that lynching him gives no interactions, while potentially lynching scum can spew much more alignments than the 1 check his death would provide
so we're certainly taking the "shot in the dark" here
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby dota2reporter » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:59 pm

Hellosither wrote:does anyone want to come up with an actual valid argument for why a suitable massclaim d1 is not a good idea

else i'm going to assume that all the villagers in this game do not want higher chances of winning

but yes let's keep thinking that lynching martyrs is a +ve strategy when there isn't a proven existence of a wolf in the martyr claims yes yes very good


dota2reporter wrote:
Hellosither wrote:massclaiming is the optimal strategy

"yeeting PR claims" barely matter when the PRs are garbage to begin with

the problem is possibly going to lylo with a bunch of cits
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby TheDebil » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:21 pm

dota2reporter wrote:why is flake getting voted lol he claimed martyr
realised something and it's that lynching him gives no interactions, while potentially lynching scum can spew much more alignments than the 1 check his death would provide
so we're certainly taking the "shot in the dark" here

wait?? you dont want to lynch town?
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby dota2reporter » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:28 pm

TheDebil wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:why is flake getting voted lol he claimed martyr
realised something and it's that lynching him gives no interactions, while potentially lynching scum can spew much more alignments than the 1 check his death would provide
so we're certainly taking the "shot in the dark" here

wait?? you dont want to lynch town?

not anymore
i trust my d1 reads
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby TheDebil » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:37 pm

host, what happens if i burn all my posts like 48h before eod do i get replaced for inactivity
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby TheDebil » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:40 pm

TheDebil wrote:host, what happens if i burn all my posts like 48h before eod do i get replaced for inactivity

kinda want to do it for the meme
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby dota2reporter » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:25 am

TheDebil wrote:
TheDebil wrote:host, what happens if i burn all my posts like 48h before eod do i get replaced for inactivity

kinda want to do it for the meme

he already answered it
you get 2 freebie posts which you must use once per 24 h

i'm doing the same thing as you rn
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby kosmo16 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:11 am

Hellosither wrote:does anyone want to come up with an actual valid argument for why a suitable massclaim d1 is not a good idea

else i'm going to assume that all the villagers in this game do not want higher chances of winning

but yes let's keep thinking that lynching martyrs is a +ve strategy when there isn't a proven existence of a wolf in the martyr claims yes yes very good



You are waiting for a Math argument? I can provide that later.
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Re: VFM71 | Light Game - Old Moon | Day 1

Postby dota2reporter » Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:29 am

i like math in my mafia game
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