SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia-Game Over-Christmas Saved?

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:02 pm

think so
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Multiuniverse » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:12 pm

/vote uzay

Me selfwagoning was a reaction test

Acidic came online after I made the post therefore they saw it (or at the very least they saw my offer and accepted but didn't vote me)

Town!acidic would no doubt vote me since they are confident that I'm scum and I was one of the leading wagon. Them not voting me and not voting a counter wagon or even addressing that post speaks for itself that Acidic wanted to dodge my wagon to dodge my vengekill.

I rest my case.

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:13 pm

jesus you're really tunneled on this read
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby LOLingHyena » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:19 pm

I'm still angry and frustrated, and I don't know how productive I'm going to be right this second, but I'm here.
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:20 pm

angry and/or frustrated seems to be my full-time mood
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Multiuniverse » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:20 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:jesus you're really tunneled on this read


Its justified

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby polypies73 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:20 pm

i'm bored
E
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:21 pm

Multiuniverse wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:jesus you're really tunneled on this read


Its justified

no it's not

maybe you'll be wrong and blame them after the game

maybe you'll be right but that doesn't matter because you're discrediting yourself because you're obviously starting with the conclusion first
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby dota2reporter » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:22 pm

why is everyone voting uzay? im confused
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Multiuniverse » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:23 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:
Multiuniverse wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:jesus you're really tunneled on this read


Its justified

no it's not

maybe you'll be wrong and blame them after the game

maybe you'll be right but that doesn't matter because you're discrediting yourself because you're obviously starting with the conclusion first

I would've been willing to flip the read if they engaged and voted me
My case is solid

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby LOLingHyena » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:24 pm

Multiuniverse wrote:/vote uzay

Me selfwagoning was a reaction test

Acidic came online after I made the post therefore they saw it (or at the very least they saw my offer and accepted but didn't vote me)

Town!acidic would no doubt vote me since they are confident that I'm scum and I was one of the leading wagon. Them not voting me and not voting a counter wagon or even addressing that post speaks for itself that Acidic wanted to dodge my wagon to dodge my vengekill.

I rest my case.

Thank you for changing your vote to Uzay.

Acidic is in the next group in my list to be resolved, so something will, 100% sure of this, be done about them tomorrow. Your play here kinda swayed my opinion a little bit here. I did notice Acidic didn't vote you.
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby dota2reporter » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:24 pm

Multiuniverse wrote:/vote uzay

Me selfwagoning was a reaction test

Acidic came online after I made the post therefore they saw it (or at the very least they saw my offer and accepted but didn't vote me)

Town!acidic would no doubt vote me since they are confident that I'm scum and I was one of the leading wagon. Them not voting me and not voting a counter wagon or even addressing that post speaks for itself that Acidic wanted to dodge my wagon to dodge my vengekill.

I rest my case.

im pretty sure acidic doesnt read like half of the posts though in the game
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:24 pm

That doesn't matter because you haven't been acting like it all game

I'm sorry if I'm being unfair to you but I'm kinda just annoyed rn
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby LOLingHyena » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:26 pm

dota2reporter wrote:why is everyone voting uzay? im confused

Because I'm deciding to resolve the Uzay and Poly stuff today. I don't feel like it can wait any longer. I came up with a backup plan if they both somehow flip town.
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
milte345 wrote:A hyena can't be a wolf because it is in fact a hyena
Ez.
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Multiuniverse » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:27 pm

dota2reporter wrote:
Multiuniverse wrote:/vote uzay

Me selfwagoning was a reaction test

Acidic came online after I made the post therefore they saw it (or at the very least they saw my offer and accepted but didn't vote me)

Town!acidic would no doubt vote me since they are confident that I'm scum and I was one of the leading wagon. Them not voting me and not voting a counter wagon or even addressing that post speaks for itself that Acidic wanted to dodge my wagon to dodge my vengekill.

I rest my case.

im pretty sure acidic doesnt read like half of the posts though in the game

They still acknowledged my post offering them the deal

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Multiuniverse » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:27 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:That doesn't matter because you haven't been acting like it all game

I'm sorry if I'm being unfair to you but I'm kinda just annoyed rn

Smh my head

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby dota2reporter » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:29 pm

LOLingHyena wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:why is everyone voting uzay? im confused

Because I'm deciding to resolve the Uzay and Poly stuff today. I don't feel like it can wait any longer. I came up with a backup plan if they both somehow flip town.

whats the backup plan?
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby LOLingHyena » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:31 pm

AcidicBreeze wrote:
LOLingHyena wrote:
Multiuniverse wrote:You know what
I will gladly selfvote if acidic votes me

Acidic, would you be up for doing this? :P

Im fine with it. If hes town i know im getting vengene killed but whatever

The other thing I noticed is that as SOON as I asked Acidic about it, they replied right afterwards.

I made my post on Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:06 pm
They responded to it on Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:18 pm

12 minute difference there. There's been other times in addition to this one where I have felt like they were reading and watching but only posting when absolutely needed.
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
milte345 wrote:A hyena can't be a wolf because it is in fact a hyena
Ez.
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby LOLingHyena » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:31 pm

dota2reporter wrote:
LOLingHyena wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:why is everyone voting uzay? im confused

Because I'm deciding to resolve the Uzay and Poly stuff today. I don't feel like it can wait any longer. I came up with a backup plan if they both somehow flip town.

whats the backup plan?

Here, I'll pull it up again.
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
milte345 wrote:A hyena can't be a wolf because it is in fact a hyena
Ez.
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby dota2reporter » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:32 pm

lesson time, brb in 50 min
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby LOLingHyena » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:33 pm

Here was the plan I laid out earlier for those who missed it:

LOLingHyena wrote:Alright, so...

The worst case scenario from lynching in Uzay/Poly is where they both are somehow town.

Initially, I tried to play out this scenario in my head. In this scenario, we would have:
-- 10 alive players
-- around 6-ish players that are TOWN.
-- around 4-ish players that are SCUM.

Immediately, I would remove [Me, Dota, Sparking] from contention,
which would leave the following 7 players: [Chemist, ET, Wabbit, Multi, Acidic, Kosmo, Michael]

(Note: As far as I know, I don't think we'd stand to gain much info if Uzay and Poly both flip town, but please correct me if I'm wrong)

At this point, I started thinking how Michael's alignment would affect things in this group of seven.

If Michael is scum,
-- I would say Chemist is likely to be town, as well as Acidic
-- which would mean that the remaining 3-ish scum would reside in [ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo]

If Michael is town,
-- My reads on Chemist and Acidic flip to scum
-- which would mean there would be 2-ish scum in [ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo]

Look at the bottom two cases though. It seems like regardless of Michael's alignment, there would be at least 2-ish scum in that group of [ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo] if Uzay and Poly are both town.

But then, that got me thinking again.

Michael, Uzay, and Poly can't be all town, could they? Like, I don't think there is any logic that states that they couldn't be, but... it just doesn't feel that way, right?

Thus, if I'm right about that above statement (Michael, Uzay, and Poly not being all town), then MAYBE...
just maybe...
lynching one of Uzay or Poly isn't really that bad of an idea at all?

What do you all think?
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
milte345 wrote:A hyena can't be a wolf because it is in fact a hyena
Ez.
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:34 pm

Question

How does your conclusion connect to the pool of Et/Wabbit/Multi/kosmo
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby LOLingHyena » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:45 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:Question

How does your conclusion connect to the pool of Et/Wabbit/Multi/kosmo

Alright, so, the initial assumption being made in the scenario I laid out above is that Uzay and Poly flip town. I'm also going with our assumption that there are around 6-ish scum. With that in mind:

-- Tomorrow we would have 10 players alive, 6 of which will be town, 4 of which will be scum (since we already killed 2).
-- Those 10 are [me, Dota, Sparking,
-- I'm removing [me, Dota, Sparking]. I'm saying those 3 are town.
-- That leaves [Michael, you, Acidic, ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo]. I'm saying 4 of these are scum.
-- Based on how things have played out between [you, Michael, Acidic], I believe there is at least scum between you three. No more than two however.
-- That would mean that the other 2-3 scum are in [ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo]. I'm saying at least two just for now.

Is it more clear now how I arrived to my conclusion about that group of 4?
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
milte345 wrote:A hyena can't be a wolf because it is in fact a hyena
Ez.
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:47 pm

That's not what I'm saying

I'm saying why did you spend all that time coming to that pool if you ended up just concluding that Uzay/Poly weren't TvT?
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby LOLingHyena » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:49 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:That's not what I'm saying

I'm saying why did you spend all that time coming to that pool if you ended up just concluding that Uzay/Poly weren't TvT?

Because I wanted a backup plan in the event that I'm somehow wrong about Uzay and Poly.
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
milte345 wrote:A hyena can't be a wolf because it is in fact a hyena
Ez.
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