SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia-Game Over-Christmas Saved?

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby SparkingJay » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:31 am

There should be atleast 1 scum in [Chemist/Wabbit]

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby SparkingJay » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:37 am

LOLingHyena wrote:Alright, so...

The worst case scenario from lynching in Uzay/Poly is where they both are somehow town.

Initially, I tried to play out this scenario in my head. In this scenario, we would have:
-- 10 alive players
-- around 6-ish players that are TOWN.
-- around 4-ish players that are SCUM.

Immediately, I would remove [Me, Dota, Sparking] from contention,
which would leave the following 7 players: [Chemist, ET, Wabbit, Multi, Acidic, Kosmo, Michael]

(Note: As far as I know, I don't think we'd stand to gain much info if Uzay and Poly both flip town, but please correct me if I'm wrong)

At this point, I started thinking how Michael's alignment would affect things in this group of seven.

If Michael is scum,
-- I would say Chemist is likely to be town, as well as Acidic
-- which would mean that the remaining 3-ish scum would reside in [ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo]

If Michael is town,
-- My reads on Chemist and Acidic flip to scum
-- which would mean there would be 2-ish scum in [ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo]

Look at the bottom two cases though. It seems like regardless of Michael's alignment, there would be at least 2-ish scum in that group of [ET, Wabbit, Multi, Kosmo] if Uzay and Poly are both town.

But then, that got me thinking again.

Michael, Uzay, and Poly can't be all town, could they? Like, I don't think there is any logic that states that they couldn't be, but... it just doesn't feel that way, right?

Thus, if I'm right about that above statement (Michael, Uzay, and Poly not being all town), then MAYBE...
just maybe...
lynching one of Uzay or Poly isn't really that bad of an idea at all?

What do you all think?

If Uzay and Poly both flip town, I think we lose due to the day which the game should be over. That is what I am worried about right now.
It's definitely possible for all 3 to flip town and scums to be within Et/Chemist/Multi/Wabbit/Kosmo or something like that.

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby SparkingJay » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:40 am

LOLingHyena wrote:
LOLingHyena wrote:
polypies73 wrote:wait now you want to lynch uzay.
this is epic.

i basically do not care which one of micheal/uzay/multi dies as long as vengekills are done properly.

I want to lynch between Uzay and you. If whoever we lynch between you two flips town, I want the other venge-shot.

That means if we do, in fact, lynch Uzay and he flips town, I want him to shoot you.

The alternative is us lynching you and you shooting Uzay if you flip town. :P

eeee Not sure on either. Why Uzay would still hardpush Poly even after Poly scumreads them is suicidal for scum!Uzay.
I'll wait for le Dota's thoughts.

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - The Melted: Day 4

Postby SparkingJay » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:45 am

UzayAltay wrote:
SparkingJayYT wrote:
UzayAltay wrote:
SparkingJayYT wrote:Anyone wanna play tic tac toe?


|_|_|O|
|_|X|X|
|X|_|O|

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby kosmo16 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:56 am

SparkingJayYT wrote:There should be atleast 1 scum in [Chemist/Wabbit]


True.
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - The Melted: Day 4

Postby UzayAltay » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:09 am

SparkingJayYT wrote:
UzayAltay wrote:
SparkingJayYT wrote:
UzayAltay wrote:
SparkingJayYT wrote:Anyone wanna play tic tac toe?


|_|_|O|
|O|X|X|
|X|_|O|


kosmo16 wrote:
SparkingJayYT wrote:There should be atleast 1 scum in [Chemist/Wabbit]


True.

Why?
44-43 Spoiler: Town Games(26-29)

NFM50,NFM51,NFM52,14D,14E, NFM54 ,14H (AF), 14G, NFM 55, NFM 56, 15C, NFM 57, NFM 58,15F,SFM45,16B, VFM36, 16D , SFM 47 , VFM38, NFM62 , 16G ,VFM 39, EpisodeXVII, 17B , 17C , VFM44 , 17D , 17F,18C,18D,18E,VFM55,VFM57,SFM64, 19C,VFM58,VFM59 ,19D,VFM60,SFM66,SFM67,VFM64,SFM70,VFM69,XX7,XX9, VFM71,VFM72, VFM73, VFM74, 21A,VFM75,VFM76,XX14

Scum Games (18-14)

NFM 48 , NFM 49 , TFM 65 ,TFM 66 , Episode XV ,TFM68 ,VFM 34, NFM61 , VFM42 , SFM53, VFM43,17E,VFM49,SFM60,CFM19,VFM54, EpisodeXIX, SFM63, 19E, 19F ,VFM62 ,VFM63,XX3,VFM66,XX5,VFM67,XX6,SFM72,XX8,VFM70,XX10,SFM76
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby TheWabbit » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:12 am

i am bound to both edges of hell

that is commitment to this game

and the responsibility of being a premed student

i'm not gonna explain the deets because why the fuck should i when it should've been irrelevant to the game in the first place

but long story short, you should understand the context of my previous post
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby TheWabbit » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:20 am

before i drown myself trying to catch-up, here's what i wanted to do but didn't:

List 3 people you think are town. (exclude dota2reporter and LOLingHyena for obvious reasons)

- Are they different from the ones you provided D1?
- If you had to provide 2 townreads and 1 scumread instead, who would you remove from your list?

Again, I discourage attaching an explanation. You've probably explained why in your previous posts anyway.
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby AcidicBreeze » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:25 am

TheWabbit wrote:before i drown myself trying to catch-up, here's what i wanted to do but didn't:

List 3 people you think are town. (exclude dota2reporter and LOLingHyena for obvious reasons)

- Are they different from the ones you provided D1?
- If you had to provide 2 townreads and 1 scumread instead, who would you remove from your list?

Again, I discourage attaching an explanation. You've probably explained why in your previous posts anyway.

Probably multi mitchael and uzay. Im out of sorts but they feel off from what i've read.
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby polypies73 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:26 am

SparkingJayYT wrote:
LOLingHyena wrote:
LOLingHyena wrote:
polypies73 wrote:wait now you want to lynch uzay.
this is epic.

i basically do not care which one of micheal/uzay/multi dies as long as vengekills are done properly.

I want to lynch between Uzay and you. If whoever we lynch between you two flips town, I want the other venge-shot.

That means if we do, in fact, lynch Uzay and he flips town, I want him to shoot you.

The alternative is us lynching you and you shooting Uzay if you flip town. :P

eeee Not sure on either. Why Uzay would still hardpush Poly even after Poly scumreads them is suicidal for scum!Uzay.
I'll wait for le Dota's thoughts.

no it's literally the opposite. you can't tunnel someone and then stop pushing them lel
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby polypies73 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:27 am

AcidicBreeze wrote:
TheWabbit wrote:before i drown myself trying to catch-up, here's what i wanted to do but didn't:

List 3 people you think are town. (exclude dota2reporter and LOLingHyena for obvious reasons)

- Are they different from the ones you provided D1?
- If you had to provide 2 townreads and 1 scumread instead, who would you remove from your list?

Again, I discourage attaching an explanation. You've probably explained why in your previous posts anyway.

Probably multi mitchael and uzay. Im out of sorts but they feel off from what i've read.

what?
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby polypies73 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:28 am

TheWabbit wrote:before i drown myself trying to catch-up, here's what i wanted to do but didn't:

List 3 people you think are town. (exclude dota2reporter and LOLingHyena for obvious reasons)

- Are they different from the ones you provided D1?
- If you had to provide 2 townreads and 1 scumread instead, who would you remove from your list?

Again, I discourage attaching an explanation. You've probably explained why in your previous posts anyway.


et, sparking, chemist

et
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby AcidicBreeze » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:36 am

Oh i missread town as scum
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby dota2reporter » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:58 am

alright guys im home

imma post after i do some homework n stuff
26-18 ToSFM
34-26 MU
0-3 MS

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Multiuniverse » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:04 am

SparkingJayYT wrote:
Multiuniverse wrote:
SparkingJayYT wrote:
SparkingJayYT wrote:
AcidicBreeze wrote:I feel like jackson has the mafia version of my role

AcidicBreeze wrote:
SparkingJayYT wrote:@Acidic Derpclear denied

Not a derp clear. I can clearly see jackson softing my role.


kosmo16 wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:also multi is trending down for me

that analysis makes him look pretty bad, also keeping in mind my tr of acidic


My impression is that Acidic was caring for htg too much to be a scum.

could you rephrase that?


I mean why would scum care so much who will be lynched if it could mean they will be next? Acidic genuinely believed htg is town and didn't want her lynch.


For the first one I fail to grasp how it is AI

Because it is a slip that I literally explained in my last post.
I don't understand how it is a slip
Multiuniverse wrote:For the second one
1) Lynch is better than nolynch therefore scum pursuing for a nolynch is a valid tactic
2) Perhaps they think htg was scum
3) If they vote htg they risk being venge (assuming they assume htg is town)

There was also a lot of doubt on acidic at that time so if htg was lynch then that's one lynch closer to them being lynched. By not voting they bring about a possibility of a nolynch which would delay their lynch because htg would still be focused on the next day.

While deepwolf scum wouldnt really care who is lynch as theyd live to endgame, acidic was solidly in poe zone so they would have to, as scum, worry about who gets lynched.

Ofc nolynch is worse and would setup a lynch for Acidic the next day, looking back through they didn't actually say they weren't going to vote HTG but to be fair their progression on the lynch is inconsistent.
Spoiler: EoD D3:
AcidicBreeze wrote:Options before i hammer please

D4:
AcidicBreeze wrote:Wanted a nolynch due to me being unconfident turns out it was the wrong play.

Thinking HTG is scum would require a lot of trust in the read. It is more plausible that scum!Acidic would want to avoid a vengekill rather than save a possible scum. What's weird is they brought it up D4, not sure how AI it is:
AcidicBreeze wrote:Theres no threat of me being venge killed from town!htg here. Im gkad you hammered tbh since i doubt i would have.


True but would also bring attention to Acidic, it's a risky play whether town will see you as villa or wolf for doing that.
Therefore kosmo's point doesn't hold much weight since it can also be seen from scum!acidic pov

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Multiuniverse » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:06 am

LOLingHyena wrote:
UzayAltay wrote:
Multiuniverse wrote:
LOLingHyena wrote:I feel like my frustration is becoming a detriment to my ability to read people right now, so I'm going to try to do something else.

I did some thinking, and [Uzay, Michael, Poly] -- is it unreasonable to think that there is AT LEAST one town in this group? If Uzay is scum, I think Poly might be his townpeek, which would make Poly the "at least one town" in this scenario with Michael still being a question mark. If Poly is scum, does that increase the likelihood of Uzay and Michael being town? Uzay was wrong on Jackson though, so I dunno if this holds up strongly for him, but in Michael's case, I think it kinda applies? So, Michael would be the "at least one town" in this scenario. Finally, if Michael is scum... I don't know if this affects how I'm reading Uzay and Poly? But it would make me feel confident in my own reads again, which in turn would lead me to believe Poly, again, would be the "at least one town" in this scenario.

If we can confirm that there is at least ONE town in that group, then I might use [Uzay/Michael/Poly] as a single slot in my towncore for now and try to look outside of it for scum.


How does this analysis benefit us in any way, shape, or form

I think , they are planning an endgame vote after they are sure no scum outside there
Which is ???

Every time either of you two ask or say stuff like this, I want to lynch both of you just a little more.

If there are two scum in those three, or even better, just one, then I think we have a good shot at finding scum outside that group of three. Yes, I'm assuming there's six scum based on Wabbit's and other people's estimations. If there are more than six scum, my argument is even better, because that actually RAISES the odds of finding scum outsides of that group of three.

It has NOTHING to do with planning any sort of endgame vote, so don't even think about trying to reframe it as such.


Okay yes but when you get down to it this is just a fancy way of doing reads
What's the difference between this and doing plain ol' reads with only 6 scums

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:12 am

TheWabbit wrote:before i drown myself trying to catch-up, here's what i wanted to do but didn't:

List 3 people you think are town. (exclude dota2reporter and LOLingHyena for obvious reasons)

- Are they different from the ones you provided D1?
- If you had to provide 2 townreads and 1 scumread instead, who would you remove from your list?

Again, I discourage attaching an explanation. You've probably explained why in your previous posts anyway.

poly
multi
acidic

acidic
mist ~ she/they

current winter theme vibe:
Spoiler:
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:13 am

me dota Hyena top town
poly multi probably town
acidic et wabbit all *vague gesturing* tier
kosmo is a slot that exists
sparking uzay michael slots that I would kill
mist ~ she/they

current winter theme vibe:
Spoiler:
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby UzayAltay » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:39 am

@Chem when You are here can You explain Poly , me , Sparking ?
44-43 Spoiler: Town Games(26-29)

NFM50,NFM51,NFM52,14D,14E, NFM54 ,14H (AF), 14G, NFM 55, NFM 56, 15C, NFM 57, NFM 58,15F,SFM45,16B, VFM36, 16D , SFM 47 , VFM38, NFM62 , 16G ,VFM 39, EpisodeXVII, 17B , 17C , VFM44 , 17D , 17F,18C,18D,18E,VFM55,VFM57,SFM64, 19C,VFM58,VFM59 ,19D,VFM60,SFM66,SFM67,VFM64,SFM70,VFM69,XX7,XX9, VFM71,VFM72, VFM73, VFM74, 21A,VFM75,VFM76,XX14

Scum Games (18-14)

NFM 48 , NFM 49 , TFM 65 ,TFM 66 , Episode XV ,TFM68 ,VFM 34, NFM61 , VFM42 , SFM53, VFM43,17E,VFM49,SFM60,CFM19,VFM54, EpisodeXIX, SFM63, 19E, 19F ,VFM62 ,VFM63,XX3,VFM66,XX5,VFM67,XX6,SFM72,XX8,VFM70,XX10,SFM76
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:04 am

UzayAltay wrote:@Chem when You are here can You explain Poly , me , Sparking ?

sparking is mostly omgus plus I don’t think he’s actively trying to evaluate my slot
Hyena said the basis of my read on you better than I could, will find it soon
I think Poly just believes in his reads in a towny way
mist ~ she/they

current winter theme vibe:
Spoiler:
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby SparkingJay » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:11 am

@Multi It is a slip because they didn't know that all townies have vengekill and thus believed their role was PR and Jackson was claiming their role.

I see it as more likely to come from town!Acidic, the risks outweigh the benefits of trying to delay/save a HTG lynch.

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby SparkingJay » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:14 am

Chemist1422 wrote:
UzayAltay wrote:@Chem when You are here can You explain Poly , me , Sparking ?

sparking is mostly omgus plus I don’t think he’s actively trying to evaluate my slot
Hyena said the basis of my read on you better than I could, will find it soon
I think Poly just believes in his reads in a towny way

I am omgusing? since when. If you want me to go back on you then I can, I've had other shit to do as of today.
Poly read is vague. Elaborate pls

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby SparkingJay » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:17 am

TheWabbit wrote:before i drown myself trying to catch-up, here's what i wanted to do but didn't:

List 3 people you think are town. (exclude dota2reporter and LOLingHyena for obvious reasons)

- Are they different from the ones you provided D1?
- If you had to provide 2 townreads and 1 scumread instead, who would you remove from your list?

Again, I discourage attaching an explanation. You've probably explained why in your previous posts anyway.

Poly, Acidic, and maybe Uzay.

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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby Chemist1422 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:18 am

SparkingJayYT wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:
UzayAltay wrote:@Chem when You are here can You explain Poly , me , Sparking ?

sparking is mostly omgus plus I don’t think he’s actively trying to evaluate my slot
Hyena said the basis of my read on you better than I could, will find it soon
I think Poly just believes in his reads in a towny way

I am omgusing? since when. If you want me to go back on you then I can, I've had other shit to do as of today.
Poly read is vague. Elaborate pls

no I’m omgusing

it’s vague because it’s mostly gut
mist ~ she/they

current winter theme vibe:
Spoiler:
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Re: SFM 67: Christmas Paranoia Mafia - Icy Death: Day 5

Postby SparkingJay » Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:18 am

polypies73 wrote:
SparkingJayYT wrote:
LOLingHyena wrote:
LOLingHyena wrote:
polypies73 wrote:wait now you want to lynch uzay.
this is epic.

i basically do not care which one of micheal/uzay/multi dies as long as vengekills are done properly.

I want to lynch between Uzay and you. If whoever we lynch between you two flips town, I want the other venge-shot.

That means if we do, in fact, lynch Uzay and he flips town, I want him to shoot you.

The alternative is us lynching you and you shooting Uzay if you flip town. :P

eeee Not sure on either. Why Uzay would still hardpush Poly even after Poly scumreads them is suicidal for scum!Uzay.
I'll wait for le Dota's thoughts.

no it's literally the opposite. you can't tunnel someone and then stop pushing them lel

I mean. Because you are scumreading Uzay, if Uzay pushed you to your lynch. Uzay would put themselves at a high chance of being vengekilled by you.

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