Spoiler:Flake > Royee (1) Hyena > Flake (1) Chemist > Jalandh (1) Uzay > Dota (1) Dota > Royee (2) Ejjinami > Jalandh (2) Ejjinami > Uzay (1) Uzay > Royee (3) Chemist > Uzay (2) Ejjinami unvotes Flake unvotes Flake > Hyena (1) Flake unvotes Uzay > Ryan (1) Flake > Chemist (1) Hyena unvotes Ryan > Uzay (2) Qvapil > Chemist (2) Dota > Chemist (3) Hyena > Ryan (2) Royee > Uzay (3) Ryan > Jalandh (1) Jalandh > Ryan (3) Ryan unvotes Flake > Ryan (4) Chemist > Dota (1) Ryan > Qvapil (1) Ejjinami > Qvapil (2) Flake > Qvapil (3) Chemist > Uzay (2)
/vote qvapil i don't think this requires explanation
Okay, cool, you're seeing the same thing that I'm seeing. However, keep in mind that two of those wagons absolutely have to be pure because there are only two mafia and they can only spread there votes among two of the wagons. The only thing I believe we can for sure glean from that wagon is, as I mentioned earlier, that Ejji and Qvapil can never be scum together. There's also the possibility that they are both town. That's why I've been trying to analyze Qvapil and the people who had mentioned them.
For example, if both Ejji and Qvapil are town, that would make Chemist's wagon pure, too, and it would make sense then to seriously consider that Chemist could be scum here. If Chemist is town too, the only other people that would make sense from my perspective would be Jalandh and Royee.
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
milte345 wrote:A hyena can't be a wolf because it is in fact a hyena Ez.
Let's think from scum PoV You need to vote , Why ? Either avoid being scumread , or control lynch one way or other . It is hard to determine to look If one vote fits there , Because towns Also want to control lynch to their reads . I would clear Ejji from there but It is not needed . I think Royee is town here . There is 6 different vote counts with different Colors , which can be mindmeld . I would probably look them All . Minimal First analyzes : (Hyena,Jal)-This Show A scenario that both scums powerwolfed to lynch ryan when they caught them off-guard And powerwolfed together to Maybe setup TvS scenario lately ? Here is The thing , They know here that All counterwağons are town , they probably guessed If Qva is not vig , they Will be shot , Because plan needs Qva flipping without them pushing , or one of them pushing Qva at most to setup TvS later . (Hyena,Qva) - Classical " Split " . Seems A bit too obvious , shouldn't underestimated . Not many to say , Maybe it should be looked that If they provoked others to vote . Qva was CFD , Maybe needed to look How they reacted that . Etc etc , shouldn't be hard to solve if case is This . (Hyena,Chem) - An original scenario . It Show A scenario that Chemist try to appear towny and didnt self-pres , and Hyena make dirty job for Chemist . It Seems very very risky , with This less control on lynch , If Chem is lynched they basically lose. Hard to believe This is What Actually happen . (Jal,Qva):Look at Hyena,qva (Jal,Chem)look at Hyena , chem (Qva,Chem): Completely possible , but , votes Dont make sense , Like they could just thunderdome at there If they would make A that risky thing . Didnt seems very possible to me .
I've been thinking about the EoD wagons some more. We know that at least two of those wagons of pure since, again, mafia only has two votes between them.
Let's assume for a second that both the Ryan and Qvapil wagons are the two pure wagons. That would mean that, [Uzay, Hyena, Jalandh, Ryan, Ejji, and Flake] are town, leaving a POE of [Qvapil, Dota, Royee, and Chemist].
* Dota and Chemist are probably never mafia partners at this point due to Dota's tunneling, so we can throw that possibility out immediately.
* Qvapil and Chemist are probably not mafia partners based on Qvapil being hard against Chemist D1, pressuring Chemist early D1, and having their vote on Chemist at EoD. I don't think Qvapil would bus this early in the game.
* Royee and Chemist could be the scumteam, maybe? Royee did spend a lot of time defending Chemist D1, but then I see posts like this one:
Royee wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:
ryanyb wrote:I really dont know who we lynch today. I could compromise on Royee. I honestly think that chemist is town and I might be too jaded by now by my bias and argumentation that I don't think I'll ever happily vote them.
lynch chem, if he flips town shoot royee, how does that sound?
terrible, i would rather be lynched than lynch chem and shooting me
that make me doubt that they can both be partners. It doesn't help them as a scumteam for Royee to be flipped first instead of Chemist, I think. Dota also made this argument about the pair being not SvS:
dota2reporter wrote:
Flake wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:i have a question
if www and royee were really a scumteam wouldnt there be more... yknow, trying to save their butts in the thread? or something like complete silence due to WIM loss, but it seems that they have the middle and not one of the extremes, which makes me think it's TvS
I don't think Dota puts Royee at the bottom if they are partners, lol. Granted, this was during Flake's reaction test which Dota played along with, but Royee was also in his PoE later on at the bottom.
The only thing that makes me question this are these two posts:
dota2reporter wrote:i think we can all agree that WWW and royee should not be alive day 2 onwards
dota2reporter wrote:
Qvapil wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:i think we can all agree that WWW and royee should not be alive day 2 onwards
Do you have a preference for today's lynch? Who between those would you rather get the rope?
www because if hes scum, royee is much more susp due to some of the stuff www wrote about royee
/vote WWW
Dota votes for WWW here, but then says Royee is will be suspicious if Chemist is scum, but what would happen if WWW flips town? Would Royee be less suspicious and become a townread for him? This is mostly tinfoil, but perhaps scum!Dota wanted Chemist dead first to maybe clear his partner scum!Royee? Again though, he ends up suggesting to shoot Royee if Chemist flips town when he was talking about the pair, so it's like, ehhhh.
* Dota and Qvapil: Dota put Qva in his PoE, too, during D1, but he doesn't push for Qvapil's lynch as strongly as he does for Chemist's or Royee's. Though, he does later suggest a scumteam of Chemist and Qva, so maybe they aren't partners. The thing is, I don't see Dota bussing this early in the game, and I hope I'm not underestimating him again like I did with him going along with Flake's reaction test.
* Qvapil and Royee:
Qvapil wrote:
Flake wrote:{UzayAltay, ejjinami} - Top Town {dota2reporter} - Strong Town Lean {ryanyb} - Town Lean {Jalandh, Qvapil, LOLingHyena} - Slight Town Lean {Royee} - Null {WhirlwindWarrior} - Wolf Lean
where im at
too tired to do more tonight will do shit tomorrow
I thought you liked royee's responses to your reaction test, no? Also why is ryan so high? Sorry if you said so and I missed it
In addition to this, Qvapil put a lot of focus towards people's thoughts on Royee early D1. There was also a point where they voted WWW, then asked Dota who he preferred to lynch between WWW and Royee. So, these two could potentially be mafia partners.
--------------
And that's all the pairs between those four. However, let's ignore that I said that two of those pairs could be the scumteam. If none of those four can be partners with any other of the four, then there can be at most only ONE scum in that pair. That would mean our initial assumption that the Ryan and Qvapil wagons are clean is actually false.
In this case, Ryan and Flake have already flipped town, and Uzay is the claimed Vig, which leaves [me, Jalandh, and Ejji] that could be mafia (though from my perspective, it's either Jalandh or Ejji).
Funnily enough, Qvapil made similar statements earlier:
Qvapil wrote:
ejjinami wrote:
Qvapil wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:chem -> royee -> qva flips win us the game 1000000000%
I really doubt there's more than 1 scum in there and if there is it's probably chemist but you should reevaluate your towncore imo
……… :/ Is this a scum-slip? lol
I was saying I don't think chemist and royee are both scum.
Qvapil wrote:I don't think it's chemist+royee Dota is town, ejji is prob town /vote hyena More sure on this than jal
I almost want to townread Qvapil now for these above posts.
But yeah, those are my thoughts so far on the EoD wagons.
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
milte345 wrote:A hyena can't be a wolf because it is in fact a hyena Ez.
The tl;dr for all of that is that if you believe no pair among [Dota, Royee, Qvapil, and Chemist] can be scum together, then that means there HAS to be at least one scum among [Me, Jalandh, and Ejji].
On the prospect of me being a wolf in VFM 18:
milte345 wrote:A hyena can't be a wolf because it is in fact a hyena Ez.
UzayAltay wrote:Yeah I Dont have much WIM And I am gonna Scumread for it Which Will screw us hard If it comes to Last 24 hour with that situation And it is no mechanichal benefit at vig hiding ( town Dont have to lynch at MyLo ) , there is only A practical benefit which is very little I am TheDebil vig
YOU MORON
THERE IS VERY MUCH MECHANICAL BENEFIT
IF YOU DIDNT REALIZE IT WHEN I SAID TO EARLIER, WHY DID YOU NOT JUST ASK
UGH
YOU WERE A HIDDEN IC THAT WOULD BE IN A THUNDERDOME WITH SCUM LATER IF THEY REALLY WANTED TO PUSH THEIR LUCK
YOURE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BEING PRESSURED TODAY
WHY WOULD YOUA0DIHVADHIV
Use your full power. Take out your soul weapon, and do your best. Otherwise...
I’m in the middle of sorting reads but I’m bored and annoying people with lazy-posting is way more fun … And I still have to read the new pages that appeared lol
You know, I’ll hold off with posting anything till I see if there are any CCs or not, but considering uzay’s reads and flake pushing his main scum-read, I don’t get why would he ever shoot him here :/
Uzay being vig would make the PoE a lot easier though…
Sigh, I’ll just shut up fn, let me just read the next few pages, this might be just a big waste of time :/
dota2reporter wrote:ejji, i can prove my point on why chem should be lynched, but i dont want to get a warning because it's slightly angleshooty but a REALLY strong argument
…am I the only one who thinks that angleshooting isn’t bad xd
Var is the overseer here so you’ll be fine The only thing you probably really shouldn’t talk about are ongoing games
dota2reporter wrote:ejji, i can prove my point on why chem should be lynched, but i dont want to get a warning because it's slightly angleshooty but a REALLY strong argument
wait i found a way to say it without a warning
town!chem is not milte and chem after getting pressured became milte instead of being a fighter like he usually is
How is it different from the way he responded to my tunnel in 18E? let’s start from that
dota2reporter wrote:like im not trying to tunnel you because i know how it feels but my push keeps getting nullified by ejji
Well, tbh it’s mainly because you didn’t want to talk lol and I kind of outclass you in being loud (at least if it comes to reads) lmao, purrfect xD I don’t mind taking this slow btw. As I said before, I really doubt the stuff I noticed in the previous games should be incorrect but I don’t mind talking about it, especially since I can’t really check “reactive” meta-tells by just ISOing him.
You mean the empty brackets? It means that I don’t have anyone I’d confidently put there I haven’t finished looking through the ISOs yet and I still have to look through mine just to make sure that I’m not forgetting anything. So that will be updated later
UzayAltay wrote:Let's think from scum PoV You need to vote , Why ? Either avoid being scumread , or control lynch one way or other . It is hard to determine to look If one vote fits there , Because towns Also want to control lynch to their reads . I would clear Ejji from there but It is not needed . I think Royee is town here . There is 6 different vote counts with different Colors , which can be mindmeld . I would probably look them All . Minimal First analyzes : (Hyena,Jal)-This Show A scenario that both scums powerwolfed to lynch ryan when they caught them off-guard And powerwolfed together to Maybe setup TvS scenario lately ? Here is The thing , They know here that All counterwağons are town , they probably guessed If Qva is not vig , they Will be shot , Because plan needs Qva flipping without them pushing , or one of them pushing Qva at most to setup TvS later . (Hyena,Qva) - Classical " Split " . Seems A bit too obvious , shouldn't underestimated . Not many to say , Maybe it should be looked that If they provoked others to vote . Qva was CFD , Maybe needed to look How they reacted that . Etc etc , shouldn't be hard to solve if case is This . (Hyena,Chem) - An original scenario . It Show A scenario that Chemist try to appear towny and didnt self-pres , and Hyena make dirty job for Chemist . It Seems very very risky , with This less control on lynch , If Chem is lynched they basically lose. Hard to believe This is What Actually happen . (Jal,Qva):Look at Hyena,qva (Jal,Chem)look at Hyena , chem (Qva,Chem): Completely possible , but , votes Dont make sense , Like they could just thunderdome at there If they would make A that risky thing . Didnt seems very possible to me .
:/ Hey, actually, you don’t need to answer if you don’t want to but why are you clearing me? From your pov I was someone who hard-defended your biggest scum-read and tried to lynch you instead, lol… So like, I’m not gonna tell you to stop but just, uh…… idk :/
Can you elaborate on royee? Or quote if you’ve done it already, I can’t find it in your last posts in your ISO
I’m probably gonna take a better look at the list after I finish getting my own reads (bump for ISOing purposes)
LOLingHyena wrote:I've been thinking about the EoD wagons some more. We know that at least two of those wagons of pure since, again, mafia only has two votes between them.
Let's assume for a second that both the Ryan and Qvapil wagons are the two pure wagons. That would mean that, [Uzay, Hyena, Jalandh, Ryan, Ejji, and Flake] are town, leaving a POE of [Qvapil, Dota, Royee, and Chemist].
* Dota and Chemist are probably never mafia partners at this point due to Dota's tunneling, so we can throw that possibility out immediately.
* Qvapil and Chemist are probably not mafia partners based on Qvapil being hard against Chemist D1, pressuring Chemist early D1, and having their vote on Chemist at EoD. I don't think Qvapil would bus this early in the game.
* Royee and Chemist could be the scumteam, maybe? Royee did spend a lot of time defending Chemist D1, but then I see posts like this one:
Royee wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:
ryanyb wrote:I really dont know who we lynch today. I could compromise on Royee. I honestly think that chemist is town and I might be too jaded by now by my bias and argumentation that I don't think I'll ever happily vote them.
lynch chem, if he flips town shoot royee, how does that sound?
terrible, i would rather be lynched than lynch chem and shooting me
that make me doubt that they can both be partners. It doesn't help them as a scumteam for Royee to be flipped first instead of Chemist, I think. Dota also made this argument about the pair being not SvS:
dota2reporter wrote:
Flake wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:i have a question
if www and royee were really a scumteam wouldnt there be more... yknow, trying to save their butts in the thread? or something like complete silence due to WIM loss, but it seems that they have the middle and not one of the extremes, which makes me think it's TvS
I don't think Dota puts Royee at the bottom if they are partners, lol. Granted, this was during Flake's reaction test which Dota played along with, but Royee was also in his PoE later on at the bottom.
The only thing that makes me question this are these two posts:
dota2reporter wrote:i think we can all agree that WWW and royee should not be alive day 2 onwards
dota2reporter wrote:
Qvapil wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:i think we can all agree that WWW and royee should not be alive day 2 onwards
Do you have a preference for today's lynch? Who between those would you rather get the rope?
www because if hes scum, royee is much more susp due to some of the stuff www wrote about royee
/vote WWW
Dota votes for WWW here, but then says Royee is will be suspicious if Chemist is scum, but what would happen if WWW flips town? Would Royee be less suspicious and become a townread for him? This is mostly tinfoil, but perhaps scum!Dota wanted Chemist dead first to maybe clear his partner scum!Royee? Again though, he ends up suggesting to shoot Royee if Chemist flips town when he was talking about the pair, so it's like, ehhhh.
* Dota and Qvapil: Dota put Qva in his PoE, too, during D1, but he doesn't push for Qvapil's lynch as strongly as he does for Chemist's or Royee's. Though, he does later suggest a scumteam of Chemist and Qva, so maybe they aren't partners. The thing is, I don't see Dota bussing this early in the game, and I hope I'm not underestimating him again like I did with him going along with Flake's reaction test.
* Qvapil and Royee:
Qvapil wrote:
Flake wrote:{UzayAltay, ejjinami} - Top Town {dota2reporter} - Strong Town Lean {ryanyb} - Town Lean {Jalandh, Qvapil, LOLingHyena} - Slight Town Lean {Royee} - Null {WhirlwindWarrior} - Wolf Lean
where im at
too tired to do more tonight will do shit tomorrow
I thought you liked royee's responses to your reaction test, no? Also why is ryan so high? Sorry if you said so and I missed it
In addition to this, Qvapil put a lot of focus towards people's thoughts on Royee early D1. There was also a point where they voted WWW, then asked Dota who he preferred to lynch between WWW and Royee. So, these two could potentially be mafia partners.
--------------
And that's all the pairs between those four. However, let's ignore that I said that two of those pairs could be the scumteam. If none of those four can be partners with any other of the four, then there can be at most only ONE scum in that pair. That would mean our initial assumption that the Ryan and Qvapil wagons are clean is actually false.
In this case, Ryan and Flake have already flipped town, and Uzay is the claimed Vig, which leaves [me, Jalandh, and Ejji] that could be mafia (though from my perspective, it's either Jalandh or Ejji).
Funnily enough, Qvapil made similar statements earlier:
Qvapil wrote:
ejjinami wrote:
Qvapil wrote:
dota2reporter wrote:chem -> royee -> qva flips win us the game 1000000000%
I really doubt there's more than 1 scum in there and if there is it's probably chemist but you should reevaluate your towncore imo
……… :/ Is this a scum-slip? lol
I was saying I don't think chemist and royee are both scum.
Qvapil wrote:I don't think it's chemist+royee Dota is town, ejji is prob town /vote hyena More sure on this than jal
I almost want to townread Qvapil now for these above posts.
But yeah, those are my thoughts so far on the EoD wagons.
![[Forum Mafia XV] Winner](./images/ranks/flair-fm15.png "[Forum Mafia XV] Winner")
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if you think you know whos the scum then why are you not voting them or pressuring them?
