I'm really late to the party on this
, this'll be my first post that isn't a ban appeal if there are any formatting errors I'll try to edit it, apologies in advance.
Superalex11 wrote:I'm not sure what the deal is with the lookout change, though. If it's to deal with the tplo meta, it will have a meaningless effect on that matter. When following the meta, the average number of visits to a jailor (excluding the lo watching) is 2.42, maybe rounded up to 2.5 if you include spies and escorts n1. The probability that there's more than 3 visits is only 17%, again maybe rounded to 20% if you include spies and escorts. That means that this change would have 0 impact in at least 4 of every 5 games, and probably otherwise negligible impact in a much greater proportion - this all being based on rng of course, something you'd usually want to avoid.
I could be wrong, I posted this on reddit so I'll just copy and paste it, but I believe the average visits to jailor night one in an optimally played group who knows this change (assuming there is no priority for who shows up to the Lookout) is going to be a lot higher:
Lets take a look at the average amount of Jailor-visitors in an optimal group in a game where we assume there is a Lookout (as if there is none it doesn't matter)
TIs -- This nerf only matters if there's a LO in the game, so we'll assume one of the TIs is LO. Second TI has a 50% chance of being a LO or Spy. Average Jailor visits produced by TI: 1/2.
TP -- This will always visit Jailor so that's +1 Jailor visitor.
TS -- This will visit Jailor if it's an Escort (out of the five options). Getting Mayor or Retri also increases chance of RTs being jailor-visitors. So +1/5.
TK -- 50% chance of being Vet which will increase the chance of RTs being jailor-visitors.
RTs -- Of the 13 town role options, five visit the Jailor. Ignoring the unique-role complexity (so getting a lower bound for how many jailor-visitors there are on average), it's a 5/13 chance of getting a jailor-visitor per-RT. Thus +15/13.
So for town visits alone the total amount of Jailor-visitors on average in a Lookout game (not counting Lookout) is 2.85384615, since this game would only be in whole numbers that seems to suggest more often than not you'll reach your limit from town alone.
but that was just the townNow we'll consider RMs, since with the Lookout nerf it is now optimal for RMs like Framer, Disguiser, and even Forger to always visit Jailor n1 so that their Mafioso and GF can safely claim TP and even if Spy sees a visit to Jailor n1 the LO can't be certain they were shown the RMs visiting (in fact this entire theory depends on which visits the LO sees when they get too many: is it random? Based on lobby order? Role order? Role order would be the worst option by far).
RMs -- of the seven RM options, 3 will visit jailor (four if you want to include Consort), so that's +6/7.
NKs -- Arsonists will also visit Jailor n1, so that's +1/3.
Leading to a total average amount of Jailor visitors in a game with a Lookout (remember this is an underestimate since it didn't consider the increased chance of RTs being visitors due to unique roles)
4.044322344319011* Jailor visitors in a Lookout game.
*albiet to be fair this number doesn't consider Jailor jailing one of the Jailor-visitors, but even if it does that still hits the important three on average.
The amount being four isn't really relevant, if you get three visits as a Lookout that's all mafia, NE, NK, etc. needs to be able to safely claim TP, so it's a big nerf.
GabiRamo69 wrote:
Especially now with ret change, basically impossible to win with rolelists are no more. There is no more insta-confirm for anyone except mayor. And before you go like "TRANSPORTER", "JAILOR", a good evil can 100% get away with those claims and get the real one hanged.
I really don't understand this take, transporter not being confirmed based on the argument that they trans'd mafia members is a maybe but Jailor not being confirmed and a good evil being able to get the real one
hung? In a ranked game? I haven't played ranked in a while but can you explain how you hang a Jailor who played optimally by claiming day one?
GabiRamo69 wrote:
TOWN BEING OP IS A MYTH.
Since I haven't played a lot of ranked to get a good idea of how strong town is I used Pipetron's 30 latest ranked games which were either (a) after the retri nerf or (b) didn't include retri and thus the nerf didn't influence the results of the game.
(1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFHQd5OTOAc -- mafia win, NK dies d5
(2)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz8SOIAALQI -- WW win, NK doesn't die, so we'll say d11 (outlier)
(3)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj4x_oBpgAQ -- town win , NK dies d2 (probably outlier, we'll see)
(4)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kraGvFlKFs -- draw, NK dies d4
(5)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vz0ZZ6O9lUY -- SK win, NK wins, d9.
(6)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOVU7o2o0S4 -- town win, NK dies d6
(7)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm-BKRoaQ4Q -- town win, NK dies n2
(8)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqRde5lI_mM -- town win, NK dies n4
(9)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M7pwfkAvzk -- town win, NK dies d6
(10)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK1zHzWcbgY -- town win, NK dies n1 (outlier)
-------Those were all after the retri rework now we're at before---
(11)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dApL2BnfU-U -- town win, NK dies n2
(12)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlgbdob7sEI -- town win, NK dies d2
(13)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcf6dFRti1Y -- town win, NK dies n2
(14)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKXOVR0u9B0 -- town win, NK dies d3
(15)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3SgsP93FvM -- town win, NK dies d2
(16)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dMtHChjAVA -- mafia win, NK dies n6 (got cleaned, ran into bet, it was Yolo Glasses)
(17)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zopW2scriQ -- mafia win, NK dies d2
(18)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqGEyuciBio -- town win, NK dies n2
(19)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr8ZMc59rCw -- mafia win, NK dies n4
(20)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8-8Od8muok -- town win, NK dies n3
(21)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oy2B7Hf5JUg -- town win, NK dies n4
(22)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiEJ6SSS3QQ -- mafia win, NK dies n2
(23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlIRRC13bm4 -- town win, NK dies n3
(24)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MZUFpzSP9g -- town win, NK dies d5
(25)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEiYAA3C2WM -- mafia win, NK dies n2
(26)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N2-VeQHDIA -- town win, NK dies d9 (arguable outlier)
(27)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M4VLhtSpMo -- town win, NK dies d3
(28)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgpoKpIJqVg -- mafia win, NK dies d6
(29)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ffnfx-TF0e4 -- town win, NK dies d4
(30)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XgCXkGUmDA -- town win, NK dies n2
*note that there is potential bias towards town having a better winrate IF pipetron is selective in which games he posts since he'd be favored to post those he wins on and he's more favored to be town than not, I don't think it's the case, but it could be.
From this small sample size we get a rough idea for winrates:
Town -- 66.7%, Mafia -- 23.3%, NK -- 6.7% (rounded up post first decimal)
Town's win rate based on this is absurd if you assume that all factions should win equally, currently the grind issue of ELO is perpetuated by town being strong enough to carry players that don't perform. I personally want all factions to have equal win rates. I don't know what win rates should be ideal, I mainly just believe that if town makes two mistakes they should lose, balancing is very difficult in this game due to not knowing what is an optimal winrate for each faction.
GabiRamo69 wrote:
----------THE SK CHANGE---------------------
Ah, yes, more rng bs. Just imagine that an esc rbs sk n1, those are 3 dead townies by D2 assuming mafia also gets a kill and sk hits a townie.
That would be equilibrium aka 6v6 by d2.
Evils WILL win in that situation.
Townies have LIMITED killing power, meanwhile evils don't. Doesn't take too much thinking to realize what the most likely outcome is.
You're tying evils into one faction, in most cases this is correct I personally as NK expect to lose and act to make mafia win. HOWEVER, if NK is stronger, has a higher winrate, AND I care about ELO? (I currently don't I have no reason to care once I'm well into masters there's nothing I personally get out of grinding but if I did) I would be using that town needs my vote as NK to get rid of mafia, if I lynch Jailor I'm certain to lose unless I'm confident in killing a mafia or NE siding with me, and maybe I lynch jailor anyway with Vigis, Vets, Transporters there is still a chance town wins so long as NK doesn't become an honorary mafia member, which these changes correctly discourage. On another note: if an Escort RBs SK night one they didn't go on Jailor, that currently is a mistake (with the Lookout change though it's okay as they may not want to overload visits on Jailor, so considering that was actually pretty smart since LO change makes Escorts not want to go on Jailor).
GabiRamo69 wrote:
----------THE ARSO CHANGE-----------------
This change would essentially destroy the tp/lo/esc/spy meta. But this also allows for rng bs games where because of a RANDOM N1 VISIT either the evils (by dousing an evil) or townies are going to lose the game when arso has that extra ignite on them. ( Yes, I am aware that arso will know who is doused and could stop from igniting if he knows another evil is doused, but that is assuming he figures that, and even if he does, hard delaying the ignite will obviously also affect evils).
I don't see how this can kill TP/LO/Esc/Spy meta, just have Jailor claim and ask for it, if Arsonist claims Jailor along with them jail the Arsonist and lynch them d2 or execute them, yes it slightly increases Jailor's chance of dying but if Jailor 1 for 1s with NK town is favored. If Jailor doesn't ask for TP/Lo/Esc/Spy that's a missplay and town deserves the loss. (If you want to play around Arsonist dousing you ask for transporter as well, decreases chance of you dying n2 overall if you calculate it).
Of note, TT mode is an example where the same Arso change is mimicked by TT Vet, however TT Vet is far less likely than Arso so you can argue it wouldn't change the meta + players are just worse there.
GabiRamo69 wrote:
-----------THE WW CHANGE-----------------
You are essentially nuking the entire concept for "late game" and ending every single game by N5.
I repeat, this is a strategy game, or so it should be. By making the game shorter by default you are forcing players into choosing from less and less plays to make, making the game more predictable and less strategy oriented.
Let me set the scene for everyone.
N1- No WW attack N2- ATTACK N3- No N4- ATTACK N5- ATTACK N6-ATTACK
( I chose 6 nights because that is the average duration of a ranked game as of now)
Remember that WW also has his passive.
As of right now, without those changes, WW still gets 4-5 person kills sometimes. Just imagine the mess which every single ww game would be with this change.
Lets look back at the 30 games of Pipetron that I just used as a sample size to consider town's winrate to find out the average death timer for NK, using a death on dX as a death on N(X-1) since NKs can't do anything during the day, NK dies on average by night 3.4, that means this WW change, on average, literally just doesn't happen based on my small sample size, I suspect on larger samples it will get lower but I could be wrong.
GabiRamo69 wrote:
Here is an actual good balance change( I will come back with more info on this later )
Replace NE and NK with 2 more mafia.
9 townies 6 mafia.
NE is straight up luck based and NK is a wildcard which you are clearly trying to change anyways. Make your own lives easier, just remove it from ranked. Make the game more high skill cap and allow mafia to make more plays. This also means that players will get to be maf a lot more and will be forced to start actually trying as evil.
There are a lot of advantages to this change, as I said, I will be back on this subject later.
Removing NK and NE from the game removes the amount of possible role options in ranked causing the game to be even more repetitive than it already is, I don't think that's a good idea, furthermore this makes the game 6v6 after one misslynch with town having zero chance of winning cause there are six mafia, especially considering the increased chance of Consort, then town would lose 100%. I personally think a more proper change would be changing NK to have different win rates than beating town so that hey don't necessarily have to side against them (they can be neutral like their name, even if their initial requirements hurt town), then heavily buffing mafia so they're more interesting to play.
Edit: I forgot to note this, but BMG I'm actually really proud of you. It's been a MASSIVE amount of time since from my view any investment has been made on seriously shifting the balance in this game and regardless of people's opinion (I think these are good, but regardless) it's good that you're doing anything. These changes make me excited to go back into ranked and see how the dynamic has changed, I've been meming around in TT and all any for a while now due to how stale I feel the game is but this gets me excited, as GF I can actually claim BG? I can fake LO more often than being 14 or 15th on VFR? Yes please!